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Brad Davidson preview Randwick Dec 14

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW RANDWICK DEC 14 Dec 14 2019

Randwick

Best bets:

Race 6 no.3 Passage Of Time $11 and $3.30 (rated $7, confidence 7/10) ** locked in Thursday

Loved his first up run where he had to get right back and closed off very strongly to easily have the best late splits of the race. Blinkers go back on and expect him to settle much closer from the good draw. Won well second up last prep.

 

Race 3 no.3 High Bridge $6 (rated $4.60, confidence 7/10) ** locked in Thursday

Put the writing on the wall with a strong closing effort first-up over 2000m. The step up in trip suits and his form around Hush Writer ties in well here from last prep. His last run over this track and distance on a good track he finished fourth in a Metrop. The favourite, Alward is suspect over 2400m and the second favourite, Miss Moana is coming off much weaker racing.

 

Race 1 no.6 Kylease $2.40 (rated $2.30, confidence 7/10)

Kylease should roll straight to the front here and be hard to catch again. Her winning time at Kembla Grange last start was quicker than the other 1200m race on the day and she picks herself here.Best long shot:

Best longshot

Race 8 no.9 Dylan’s Romance $71 and $13 (rated $35.70, confidence 4/10)

Forgiving first-up when went far too hard in front. Knocked up badly as a result. Best front running rider in business goes on (T Clark) and finds the front a lot easier. Can run a cheeky race.

Best outside Randwick

Kembla Grange

Race 3 no. Haunting Spirit $2.40 (rated $2.30, confidence 7/10)

Had a few chances but just missed the boat last start when winner took off early. Should come across and lead and gets another chance to breakthrough.

Expected drifters:

Race 6 no.4 Multaja $3.80 (seems very short here).

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (220 units)

Race 1 no.6 Kylease 30 unit win at $2.40 (*half fixed now, half tote)

Race 1 no.2 Insensata 10 unit place tote

Race 3 no.3 High Bridge 35 unit win at $6 ** Locked in Thursday

Race 4 no.16 Spirituality 3 unit win at $12

Race 4 no.17 Canadian Spice 2 unit win at #26

Race 6 no.3 Passage Of Time 30 unit win at $11 and 25 unit place at $3.30 ** Locked in Thursday

Race 8 no.9 Dylan’s Romance 3 unit win at $71 and 7 unit place at $13

10 unit early quaddie (10.4%, starts r2): 1st leg: 3,1,11,10. 2nd leg: 3,7. 3rd leg:17,10,16,1. 4th leg: 9,11,5.

15 unit main quaddie (7.8%, starts r6): 1st leg: 3,8,1,2. 2nd leg: 5,2,7,6. 3rd leg: 6,3,9. 4th leg: 10,17,2,5.

 

Kembla Grange

Race 3 no.1 Haunted Spirit 30 unit win at $2.40 (*half recorded fixed now, half tote later)

Race 6 no.4 Zidane 5 unit win at $26 and 10 unit place at $7

Race 6 no.6 Tenorino 2 unit win and 3 unit place tote

Results: -549 units (-8% POT, 6431 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (6.25 units)

Race 1 no.6 Kylease 1 unit win at $2.40 (*half fixed now, half tote)

Race 1 no.2 Insensata 0.25 unit place tote

Race 3 no.3 High Bridge 1.25 unit win at $6 ** Locked in Thursday

Race 4 no.16 Spirituality 0.1 unit win at $12

Race 4 no.17 Canadian Spice 0.1 unit win at $26

Race 6 no.3 Passage Of Time 1 unit win at $11 and 0.75 unit place at $3.30 ** Locked in Thursday

Race 8 no.9 Dylan’s Romance 0.1 unit win at $71 and 0.2 unit place at $13

Kembla Grange

Race 3 no.1 Haunted Spirit 1 unit win at $2.40 (*half recorded fixed now, half tote later)

Race 6 no.4 Zidane 0.1 unit win at $26 and 0.2 unit place at $7

Race 6 no.6 Tenorino 0.1 unit win and 0.1 unit place tote

Results: -1.4 units (46.35 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: True, Good 4.

History of track bias:    

15/12/2018       Rwick    True      S6-7      Fence not the place to be- 2-5 lanes and then wider later                                   

26/01/2019       Rwick    True      G3         Pretty fair track- some races felt like fence not best but three winners day on fence. No dis to be on speed prob touch on pace but could still run on                                  

9/03/2019         Rwick    True      G4         Pretty fair track. Out wide swooping slight advantage but could win closer in. Rained mid meeting                                    

6/04/2019         Rwick    True      s7          Pretty fair although I don't think hard fence was great. Could make ground                               

7/04/2019         Rwick    TRUE     G3         Hard to make ground a lot of day but no real pattern in terms of lanes                               

25/05/2019       Rwick    True      g4/3      Rail was off for most of the day, lanes 3 and out best                                      

3/08/2019         Rwick    True      H8         Very fair track                                

21/09/2019       Rwick    True      S7-6      Pretty fair, fence in run help r1-3 then fair, touch off rails real late but rail ok still                                   

19/10/2019       Rwick    TRUE     G4         Fair track- perfect

Assessment: Fair track expected (touch off rail perhaps)

Wind: Moderate ENE. Headwind in home straight, tail wind back straight.

             

Race 1

Overview: Kylease should roll straight to the front here and be hard to catch again. Her winning time at Kembla Grange last start was quicker than the other 1200m race on the day and she picks herself here. I think there is a good place chance here in Insensata. She always runs well fresh and it wouldn’t surprise me if she places here at big odds. Misteed seems a bit short in the market considering she is better on wet ground, while Star Reflection also prefers the sting out. Seasons can bounce back after a fair performance first-up (the extra trip will suit and it was too short for her fresh).

Advice: Kylease on top but Insensata can place at odds.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Kylease leads with Terminology prominent- Speed looks decent.

Likely market trend: Kylease should start a firm favourite.

Selections: 6-2-8-4

6.Kylease ($2.30)- Straight to the front and kept going to score first-up off a small break. Quicker than other 1200m race on day (won by Trumbull) and should lead again here and proive hard to catch.

2.Insensata ($23.70)- Good roughie here- Probably more a place hope but liked her trials and she always runs a race fresh. Weighted up there but can close off.

8.Misteed ($8.60)- OK fresh but I just reckon she is much more at home on wet ground.

4.Seasons ($8.60)- Just fair fresh but she isn’t a 1000m horse. Should stirp fitter for that, extra distance plus senior on are all pluses.

Other chances:

1.Star Reflection ($14.40)- Beat all bar Into The Abyss LS where race was set up for to close off. Another one who is better on wet ground.

3. La Tigeresa ($8.60)- Also has claims. Scratched last week with skin irritation but better suited at 1200m for mine here.

Other runners:

3. La Tigeresa ($8.6), 5. Call Me Royal ($27), 7. Terminology ($15.5), 9. Kawaikini ($#DIV/0!), 10. Celtic Love ($191.9).

 

Race 2

Overview: Overview: Tricky Highway race with plenty of chances and they should go quick here. Despite that, I’m hoping Bomdiggity might be able to get across and find the lead and if he does, he could just take some catching. His win at Wagga first-up was pretty good sectionally and he has come back well. Feel The Knight drops back from benchmark grade, while Moore Euros beat Calescent fair and square last start and must be respected. Other chances to Maid In Milan and Calescent.

Advice: Bomdiggity on top.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Very strong speed expected with multiple horses prominent including Bomdiggity,Tallis, Calescent, Moore Euros and a few others.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 3-1-11-10

3.Bomdiggity ($7.50): Really good win first up at Wagga. Almost promised plenty and might be showing It now. At least .8s quicker two other 1000m races on day.

1.Feel The Knight ($7)- Touch disappointing LS but it was benchmark grade and Canterbury. Back to bigger track here and should be running on

11.Moore Euros ($9.80): Beat Calescent fair and square last start and time was .4s quicker than mdn (expect that at least). Did place Hway grade last prep.

10.Maid In Milan ($7.50): Disapp in benchmark grade last start but maybe too far? Form prior was strong.

Other chances:

15.Calescent ($8.70): No match for More Euros two back (meets here) and then too good latest. Just well found?

2. Zardoro ($7.5): Always capable in Highways but 1000m a bit on sharp side?

Other runners:

5. Magnarock ($26.8), 6. It's Business Time ($#DIV/0!), 8. Can't Find Snippy ($26.8), 9. Chazelles ($11.8), 12. Gold Rhapsody ($26.8), 14. Tallis ($35.8), 16. Destiny's Dee Day ($107.2).

 

Race 3

Overview: Overview: I was taken by the run of High Bridge first-up and I think he looks well suited here second-up at 2400m. He was second to Hush Writer at 2400m last prep and that horse went on to win the Newcastle Cup and St Leger. He also boasts a fourth in a Metrop at this track and distance last year and gets in well at the weights. Miss Moana is actually poorly weighted against these and is up a long way in grade but the booking of Tim Clark scares me and he might just outride his rivals here. Alward has claims but seems too short and I still think he is a risk at 2400m. Morton’s Fork next best.

Advice: High Bridge to win.

Confidence: 7/10

Speed map: Speed looks moderate with Miss Moana rolling along in front with Naval Warfare prominent.

Likely market trend: Expecting High Bridge to be popular.

Selections: 3-7-1-4

3.High Bridge ($4.50): Loved the return run and he savaged the line late. 2nd up, 2400m, dry track. Last time t/d on a DRY track, he ran 4th in a Metrop. Hard to beat and good price too.

7.Miss Moana ($4.30): Poorly weighted against these despite the drop 6kg. Tim Clark a bigbooking- he will rate her well- Beat nothing last start but worth a crack at this.

1.Alward ($3.70): Too good LS but he was in the perfect spot and looks very skinny at $2.40? Still a query of whether he runs a strong 2400m for mine.

4.Morton’s Fork ($10.90): Found the line well enough LS and was crowded late. Hasn’t been to 2400m but can’t knock him until he has been.

Other runners:

1. Alward ($3.7), 2. Emperor's Way ($12.1), 3. High Bridge ($4.5), 4. Morton's Fork ($10.9), 5. Naval Warfare ($24.6), 6. Capital Gain ($20.2), 7. Miss Moana ($4.3), 9. Chivadahli ($246.1).

 

Race 4

Overview: Overview: Hard race to assess with most of these first starters. Wild Ruler has been the one punters have wanted to back since the market went up earlier this week and his trials have been pleasing (he was a bit wayward in the latest?). Ecountabull comes through a weak form race on debut but has race experience on his side and has trialled well since then. Already Blessed won his only trial by a big space. Chances to Canadian Spice and Spirituality at odds.

Advice: Wild Ruler the horse to beat but too short in betting. Canadian Spice and Spirituality run cheeky races at odds.

Confidence: 4/10

Speed map: Hard to map this but speed should be on with several horses showing speed at the trials.

Likely market trend: Could go many ways.

Selections: 17-10-16-1

*** Not enough data to price****

17.Canadian Spice- Liked the way she closed off in recent trial under no pressure behind Dubai Star. Can run well here at odds. From the Waller yard so should be well educated.,

10.Wild Ruler- The one they’ve wanted to back in early markets $5.50-$3.60 off a couple of nice trial wins. Was a bit wayward in the latest but times have been solid and first trial beat subsequent city winner Destination.

16. Spirituality- Liked the trial coming in. Can figure. Any market support?

1.Ecountabull- Form (5 subs st 0 pl) and figures out of debut race weren’t great at all but has race experience and loved his trial since first-up effort where he ran on well (in race run to suit).

Other chances:

4.Already Blessed- Small field in heat but won his only trial at Hawkesbury leading in in OK time. Should put himself on speed and run well.

 

Race 5

Overview: Overview: Really good race this with quite a few up and comers. Splintex has drawn wide but if he can find some cover just off the speed I think he can blend in at the right time. His winning times last prep stacked up well v the older horse last campaign. Superium has been well backed with Nash aboard and the only query is whether 1100m is a bit too short? He will relish the quick tempo though. Nicco Lad can sprout wings late and had no luck first-up last prep in a weaker race, Embracer might be looking for further now but has claims.

Advice: Leaning to Splintex.

Confidence: 6/10

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Embracer, Mansa Musa, Sheriff and Splintex all up there.

Likely market trend: Superium has been well backed already but Splintex will have his supporters too.

Selections: 9-11-5-1

9.Splintex ($4.10): Beat Exceedance before a break (Exceedance only lost due to slow early tempo mind you) and ran good splits at both wins last prep which stacked up well v older benchmark races on day. Trialled well leading in. Tucks in behind strong speed perhaps? Needs luck from gate.

11.Superium ($4.10): Heavily backed with Nash on first-up. 1100m is a touch short of his best but good speed here and should be poking through late.

5.Nicco Lad ($12.10): Not a bad roughie with so much speed engaged. Probably should have won first up last prep v Echo Jet. Sits back off this tempo and launches late

1.Embracer ($5.50): Like him as a horse but 1100m second up in a race where I doubt he dictates by himself?

Other runners:

1. Embracer ($5.5), 2. Mansa Musa ($15.1), 3. Sheriff ($40.8), 4. Gododdin ($#DIV/0!), 5. Niccol Lad ($12.1), 6. Celer ($#DIV/0!), 7. Tropezina ($#DIV/0!), 8. Blazing Miss ($#DIV/0!), 9. Splintex ($4.1), 10. Zaniah ($#DIV/0!), 11. Superium ($4.1), 12. Feel The Knight ($#DIV/0!), 13. Brazenpine ($10.8), 14. Canyonero ($61.2), 15. Edison ($20.1), 16. Chamfer ($1224.1), 17. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 18. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 19. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 20. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 21. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 22. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 23. ($), 24. ($)

 

Race 6

Overview: I took the $11 about Passage Of Time earlier in the week and I loved his first-up run where he had to go right back from the back but closed off strongly. He should park much closer here and the blinkers go back on. He bolted in second up last prep in a weaker race. Irithea profiles OK here and she will come across and put herself on speed. Signore Fox gets in with no weight and will be flashing late, while Bon Amis is better than he showed last start and should be closer to the speed here (began awkwardly last start).

Advice: Passage Of Time to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even with Spending To Win, Irithea and Oriental Runner prominent. Passage Of Time should be just behind them.

Likely market trend: Signore Fox has been popular already. Expecting Passage Of Time to be rock solid. Multaja has to drift from $3.80- Looks terribly short.

Selections: 3-8-1-2

3.Passage Of Time ($6.50): Loved the fresh run, had to go right back, QL600 of race and can park much closer here. Won well 2nd up last prep in qeaker race in avg figures. Blinkers on,

8.Signore Fox ($4): Ran on well from back LS Brisbane 1350m. Back to 1200m. Boasts a win over Reelem In Ruby this dist earlier this prep when giving that horse 5kg.

1.Irithea ($8): Form last prep was good. 4th in a G1. Two trials leading in, latest given nice hit out. Runner up to White Moss first-up last prep. 59kg the leveller

2.Bon Amis ($10.20): Bowman on, began awkwardly and too far back LS. Most wins 1100m but just missed v Deprive and Trope here 1200m earlier this year. Can improve.

Other runners:

4. Glenall ($11.9), 5. Multaja ($8.4), 6. Firsthand ($18.1), 7. Spending To Win ($13), 9. Boss Lane ($48.8), 10. Albumin ($48.8, 12. Oriental Runner ($74).

 

Race 7

Overview: Overview: Hard to go past Quackerjack and he should find the front and prove hard to catch. He had no luck in The Gong when wide throughout and there is less pressure here. Gold Fields has been in great form in Victoria and his form ties in well with Ranier. He just has to carry the big weight here. Live And Free just knocked up late second up and is ready to peak, while Ranier has each-way claims as well if he runs here over Brisbane.

Advice: Quackerjack on top but at his right price.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks moderate with Quackerjack rolling to the front and Gold Fields handy.

Likely market trend: Quackerjack should start a firm favourite.

Selections: 5-2-7-6

5.Quackerjack ($3.10): $4.40-$3.10 and I can’t see much value at that current quote but looks to roll forward, lead and give a big kick. They’ll be coming at him last 50m but should be too strong. Big run LS in Gong when WNC throughout.

2.Gold Fields ($9.50): Has the 58.5kg but racing well of late. Beat a horse two back who has since defeated Ranier so form ties in. Nash on, gets a good run on speed.

7.Live And Free ($9.50): Just peaked on the run second up when he looked home. Better for that, just wants them to roll along?

6.Ranier ($9.50): Had the gun run but got the job done LS. Racing well, draw is OK and should be in front of a few. This is harder but has each-way claims. Also acceptor for Bris?

Other runners:

1. Invincible Gem ($25.3), 3. El Dorado Dreaming ($14.3), 4. Sambro ($22.5), 56. Ranier ($9.3), 78. Noble Boy ($16.7), 10. Goodfella ($51.4), 11. Le Juge ($#DIV/0!), 12. Aqua D'Ivina ($33.8), 14. Bobbing ($16.7), 15. Mushaireb ($33.8).

 

Race 8

Overview: Overview: Hard to look past Strome and she is in a rich vein of form at the moment. They’ve opted for this race over the Villiers and I think it’s the smart choice. She was really good from the back at Rosehill last start when an eye-catching second and overcame a slow tempo to win two back. Turnberry will do what he always does and give a good kick on speed, while Dylan’s Romance can improve sharply here and run a race on speed. Mr Reckless has claims but I don’t like the drop back in distance.

Advice: Strome on top but Dylan’s Romance has claims at odds.

Confidence: 7/10 on Strome, 4/10 Dylan’s Romance.

Speed map: Speed looks decent with Dylan’s Romance rolling to the front with King Tomlola potentially going with him. Turnberry tucks in behind them.

Likely market trend: Strome will be popular.

Selections: 6-3-9-7

6.Strome ($3.30)- Like the way she is going this prep. Too good two back despite slow tempi and then just ran out of room latest. 1600m looks OK.

3.Turnberry ($5.60): Bit one paced but loved the last start effort where sat on speed in race where went very hard and he stuck on very strongly. Beat home Strome prior. Gets a good run just behund the speed.

9.Dylan’s Romance ($35.70): Forgiving first-up when went far too hard in front. Knocked up badly as a result. Best front running rider in business goes on (T Clark) and finds the front a lot easier. Can run a cheeky race.

7.Mr Reckless ($9.30): Just not sure about the drop back to mule here. Won a strong run 2000m last start and now back to 1600m? Well held behind Strome prior.

Other runners:

1. Cutadeel ($11.6), 4. Gresham ($14.1), 8. Berdibek ($23.4), 10. King Tomlola ($47.5), 11. Matowi ($11.6), 12. Two Wrongs Don’t ($71.3), 13. Our Winnie ($23.4), 14. All But Gone ($71.3), 15. I Am Capitan ($#DIV/0!), 16. Moshway ($#DIV/0!), 17. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 18. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 19. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 20. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 21. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 22. 0 ($#DIV/0!), 23. ($), 24. ($)

Race 9

Overview: Overview: I thought Something Fast put the writing on the wall fresh with an eye catching run over 1100m and the 1400m will suit him better. He maps well and just needs the breaks on the turn from the low draw. Petronius was OK fresh and 1100m is not his go. He should appreciate the extra trip here, while Echo Jet and Phaistos are both capable.

Advice: Something Fast to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even with Echo Jet likely to roll to the front with Super Star Bob, Esteem Spirit and Mapmaker handy.

Likely market trend: Something Fast, Petronius, Echo Jet and Phaistos will all have supporters.

Selections:10-17-2-4

10.Something Fast ($6.20): Liked the way he found the line fresh in a good rating race. 1100m to 1400m second up off decent break but he is a 1350-1400m horse so should be OK. Draws well, light weigh.Just needs the breaks.

17.Petronius ($6.20): Did enough fresh considering 1100m was going to be too short for hum. Up to 1400m now, light weight. Consider.

2.Phaistos ($5.30): Found the line well frehs in race run to suit the run ons in Melbourne. Few winners out of the race though and should be closing off.

5.Echo jet ($11.20): Blinkers went on last start and improved sharply after leading at strong tempo. Should lead again with Nash on again. Just query up to 1400m? Will he be weak late?

Other runners:

1. White Boots ($36.7), 6. Esteem Spirit ($25.9), 7. Groundbreak ($18.1), 9. Nichochet ($18.1), 11. Super Star Bob ($14.9), 12. Charretera ($12.8), 13. National Guard ($36.7), 15. Zavance ($22.6), 17. Petronius ($6.2), 19. Just Dylan ($367.1).

 



Brad Davidson preview Randwick Dec 14 - Brad Davidson preview Randwick Dec 14

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