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Brad Davidson preview Rosehill December 7

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW ROSEHILL DECEMBER 7 Nov 30 2019

Rosehill

Meeting:Rosehill, Dec 7

***Tough meeting today punters***

Hardest to beat but right price and hence not in strategies

Race 8 no.9 Burning Crown $1.95 (confidence 7/10, rated $2)

Led at a good tempo last start and kept going to score well. Should find the front again, roll along and prove hard to run down. The concern is there are two roughies in the race, I Am Capitan and Tessera who may bring him undone if they take him on up front. With that query, I want better to play.

Throw at the stumps

Race 5 no.4 Defeat $17 (rated $14, confidence 5/10)

Like the way he has found the line at his past two starts and I just reckon the step up in trip is what he is looking for. Open race and not hopeless here.

 

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

 Normal strategy (50 units)

Race 4 no.5 California Longbow 15 unit win at tote

Race 4 no.7 Dark Pearl 5 unit win at $11

Race 5 no.4 Defeat 10 unit win at $17

Race 9 no.14 Spencer 10 unit win at $16 (pre deductions, Thursday)

10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 9.25%): 1st leg: 7-6-4-5. 2nd leg: 5-4-7. 3rd leg” 9,3,6. 4th leg: 14,4,3.

Results: to be updated.

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (1.2 units)

Race 4 no.5 California Longbow 0.5 unit win tote

Race 4 no.7 Dark Pearl 0.2 unit win at $11

Race 5 no.4 Defeat 0.25 unit win at $17

Race 9 no.14 Spencer 0.25 unit win at $16 (pre deductions, Thursday)

Results: to be updated after yesterday.

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Track: Rail 3m, G4.

History track bias:

22/09/2018       Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair track this. No disadv to be off pace and wide but could win on pace fence first six races at least                               

10/11/2018       Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair re lanes. On pace slught adv as always good track racing                                        

1/12/2018         Rosehill 3m        G4         Fence inferior here. 3-6 the place to be. Seemed ok to sit 3wnc even without cover. Too many ran well doing so                                    

2/02/2019         Rosehill 3m        S7          Pretty fair track re lanes and could run on although on pace slight adv                                      

23/03/2019       Rosehill 3m        H9         A few off fence in run here and wider. Not easy to make ground                                        

1/06/2019         Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair track although got wide last 3-4 races. Fence in run seemed adv but not everything.                                         

13/07/2019       Rosehill 3m        h8         Pretty fair track this- Probably sl adv wider again but could win near fence                                    

31/08/2019       Rosehill 3m        H9         ok first race or two but the wider the better as day went on                            

9/11/2019         Rosehill 3m        G4         Just getting off fence to middle of track in straight here. Could make ground as a result                           

Assessment: Fair track expected.. If anything a touch wider in straight.

Winds: Moderate NNE. Tailwind back straight, head wind home straight. Could favour those on speed.

 

 

R1

Overview: Good two-year-old race. Hard to go past Hinchbeast and he was pretty impressive on debut and did win a trial in much quicker time than Farnan on the same day prior to that. He should lead and prove hard to catch. Sancy has hit the line well in two trials, while Tycoonist must be respected off the decent move in early markets. Risking Mrs Maisel who comes through a weak race for mine.

Advice: Leaning to Hinchbeast but intriguing race.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Hinchbeast leads with Mrs Maisel handy. Speed should be strong.

Likely market trend: 1 and 2 should have supporters.

Selections: 1-7-3-4

***No prices*** Not enough data.

1.Hinchbeast- Led and kept going to score on debut at Rosehull. Overall time .4S slower B64 on day. 3rd horse beaten 8L but 1.5L by Farnan in trial? Won trial prior to debut in 1.3s quicker time than Farnan on day (L600 .7s quicker as well).

7.Sancy- Won two trials leading in- Liked the latest at Gosford where she cruised to the line in style. Her heat was 6L quicker (5L quicker L600 too) than Tycoonist on the day.

3.Tycoonist- Got back and closed off well latest trial in slow time and has been the subject of a good go in early betting, Respecting.

4.Mrs Maisel- Taken off the track on debut and forgiving. Time of race was just poor-Whole 6L slower B78 on day and mainly L600.

R2

Overview: Statuesquely found one better last start but I loved how strong she was after the line. The step up to 1800m looks ideal and she should be hard to run down. Convinced was probably looking for further already last start and gets the opportunity to show his worth at 1800m. Soldier Of Love, Remuera, Nordic and Stardome (cardiac arrythmia last start) are all capable.

Advice: Statuesquely to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Statuesquely leads with Remuera handy. Solider Of Love should roll forward. Speed looks OK.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 3-8-1-2

3.Statuesquely ($3.30)- Found one better last start but she was back in front 50m past the line and she has 1800m written all over her. Leads with the best front running jockey in the state on. Hard to get past.

8.Convinced ($4)- Good two back (reeled off some nice late splits) then OK last start when back in trip. Looks to be looking for the trip now.

1.Soldier Of Love ($6)- Had the gun run LS and now comes up with a wide draw but another that should see out the trip. LS winner in OK figures. Tactics?

2.Nordic ($10.30)- Ran on well two runs in Aus. 2000 back to 1800m? Can be slow out?

Other chances:
6.Stardome ($26.10)- Looks a big price here- Not sure he is going well enough to win but put a pen through latest effort when cardiac arrythmia. Won a blanket finish race in avg time prior? Trial since LS wasn’t great.

7.Remuera ($12.90)- Won two in a row in weaker grade in Qld. Sit and sprint latest but was holding them late. Tougher here and looks a bit one paced but makes own luck on speed.

4. Adana ($17.10): Not hopeless here but prefers wet.

 

R3

Overview: Pretty open Highway. Clergyman was taking ground off Sneak Preview last start and he has been a different horse since the blinkers went on three starts back. Harbouring has a sense of timing here second up off a win over the mile and this looks a target race a while out. Dew Drop had no luck two back and then was good in benchmark grade last start and he just needs a bit of luck from the wide draw to figure. Up The Stairs was six weeks between runs last start and will be better for that. He has won up to 2000m.

Advice: Not much between these. Dew Drop the value perhaps.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Speed looks up in the air a bit. Dukes County rolls forward as does Just In The Clear and Up The Stairs and potentially Acquital. Speed looks fair on paper but they normally go quick in these Highways.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 3-4-7-9

3.Dew Drop ($9.30)- Ran on solidly in sit and sprint last start in benchmark grade and had no luck in Highway grade prior. Just gives them a start here?

4.Harbouring ($6)- Sense of timing about him here. Given a break, won well fresh over a mile and this looks a natural progression. 3rd in a Hway last prep. Has a good record.

7.Clergyman ($7.70)- Taking ground off Sneak Preview at the end last start and he has been a different horse since the blinekers went on three starts back. Should be savaging the line again.

9.Up The Stairs ($16.50)- Had his chance LS but was 6 weeks between runs and has won at 2000m (albeit a very weak rating race).

Other chances:

1.Gunga Din ($5.80)- Ran on well LS and OK prior in Country Classic. Just short enough here,

12. Defy ($22)- Should have won LS and too good prior. Big odds here.

Other runners:

2. Hemmerle ($22), 5. Acquittal ($13.2), 6. Rostam ($33.4), 8. Dukes County ($16.5), 10. Just In The Clear ($33.4), 11. Quick Spin ($22), 12. Defy ($22), 13. Metralla ($66.9), 14. Treasure The Love ($133.7).

 

R4

Overview: I think the market has overreacted to California Longbow’s disappointing effort last start. He pulled up lame though and he beat Mangione fair and square prior to that. He can bounce back. Dark Pearl showed a good turn of speed to win last start and I think he is over the odds here. Mangione has claims but seems short enough considering he is coming out of a couple of fast run races and this might be a bit more tactical. Fun Fact should relish the extra trip.

Advice: Can suggest win bets on California Longbow at $5 and Dark Pearl at $11.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Fun Fact and Califorinia Firebird look the two on pacers with Guise not far away. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Mangione will be popular.

Selections: 5-7-3-1

5.California Longbow ($4.70)- Pulled up 1/5 lame LS and was below his best there. Beat Mangione fair and square prior. Can bounce back.

7.Dark Pearl ($9.50)- Didn’t beat mucyh but overcame a slow tempo to score well LS in midweek grade. Run was better than it looked prior to that. Back 110m here not ideal but looks overs.

3.Mangione ($2.90)- Went to the line with Mr Reckless last start. Has claims for sure just seems short enough at $3.10. Has been coming out of some strong run races, this may not be that.

1.Fun Fact ($8.10)- Comes through a weak race for mine where they went hard and dawdled home. Extra trip suits but looks unders at the price.

Other runners:

2. Master Shuhood ($24), 4. Lord Gododdin ($17.7), 6. Guise ($15.2), 7. Dark Pearl ($9.5), 9. Californiafirebird ($27).

R5

Overview: Pretty open race this with plenty of different form angles to consider. Orcein is going great guns and while his latest win wasn’t in super time, he makes his own luck close to the speed. Defeat is a good roughie. He his the line well two back and then ran on again late last start when back in trip. This is his first try at 1500m but he won at 1400m last prep (in a swoopers race too where he was on speed). Starla, Pinup Miss, Bigboyroy and Plenty are all capable.

Advice: Defeat the roughie in a very tough race.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Silent Explorer looks the leader with Bobby Dee handy. Speed all depends how quick Silent Explorer wants to go.

Likely market trend: Starla will be popular.

Selections: 4-11-3-9

4.Defeat ($14)- Bit of a throw at the stumps here in an open race. Hit the line well two back where beat home Plenty easily and then ran on again late when back in trip latest. First try at 1500m but won at 1400m last prep and while didn’t look strong win, it was a swoopers race and he was only on pacer there.

11.Starla ($4.10)- Slow tempo last start was against and effort was still sound. Bolted in prior in 4-5L quicker time than Bigboyroy on the same night.

3.Orcein ($5.10)- Going great guns this prep- too good latest and just beaten prior when wide run.

9.Pinup Miss ($6.20)- Set up for pace wise last start but still nice win from the back. Form our of the race hasn’t been great. Should run on again allo the same.

Other chances:

8.Bigboyroy ($5.10)- Dead heat when making ground out wide against the bias last Friday night. Bolted in prior albeit slower time than Starla on night. Can run well again.

Other runners:

1. Bobby Dee ($42.7), 6. Kedah ($15.8), 7. Silent Explorer ($28.5).

 

R6

Overview: Handspun got the better of Lucicello And Pumpkin Pie when they all met at Kembla Grange and she just has to reproduce that to be really competitive again. The extra trip should suit. Lucicello started short that day and I thought she was a little bit disappointing. She is settling well this prep but 1350m is still a query. Word For Word has really good form around Queensland Oaks winner Winning Ways and Sunshine Coast Guineas victor Baccarat Baby last prep and just returns off a long spell.Pumpkin Pie also has each-way claims.

Advice: Monitor betting after the yard with Word For Word. Handspun the overs?

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: To Your Health and Winter In America look the two leaders but speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Could come for a number of runners here.

Selections: 7-6-4-5

7.Handspun ($5.60)- Ran on strongly from the back first-up clocking 11.07 2nd quickest last 200m of day (only bettered by the luckless Broken Arrows). Can she repeat? Stepping out to 1350m looks ideal.

6.Lucicello ($3.30)- Little bit disappointing for mine LS but beat subsequent winner Invictus Salute prior. Settling so much better this prep but 1350m still a ?

4.Word For Word ($5.60)- Classy mare- Has form around Qld Oaks winner Winning Ways, Sunshine Coast Guineas winner Baccarat Baby and beat Pinup Miss last prep. One soft trial, long break. Yard?

5.Pumpkin Pie ($7.10)- Trialled well (but is a noted trialler) and then not beaten far first-up. Should improve, extra trip helps. Just has to reproduce to be competitive.

Other runners:

2. Freehearted ($41.3), 3. Tinkermosa ($31), 8. Almeheri ($12.2), 9. To Your Health ($24.8), 10. Winter In America ($82.6).

Race 7

Overview: Invictus Salute burnt the candle at both ends to score well last weekend and she is on the quick back up here. She should land outside Junglized and go close. Junglized has been kept fresh for this. He is not the type of horse that is going to put a field away but he is rarely beaten far and gets another chance. Taniko’s trials have been just fair but she is a different horse with blinkers on and they go on race day. Southern Lad was wide first-up against Glenall (who has franked the form since) and gets the services of Nash Rawiller here.

Advice: Invictus Salute on top. Drachenfels a place chance at good odds.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Expect Junglized to lead with Invictus Salute sitting on his outside. They should control the pace.

Likely market trend: Expecting Invictus Salute to start a firm fav.

Selections: 5-4-7-3

5.Invictus Salute ($3.60)- Burnt the candle both ends to score LS and overall time was good (same as Starlight Stakes on day). Should land outside Junglized and only fitter again. Just has to reproduce.

4.Junglized ($8)- Fought back first up to just be denied. Kept fresh with tickover trial since. Should lead and give them something to catch.

7.Taniko ($10.60)- Trials just OK without blinkers on but she can do that. Blinkers go on race day and her run fresh last prep was a beauty. Has the ability to reel off a big split and should be strong late.

3.Southern Lad ($8.70)- WNC first-up when second to Glenall (that horse had to give him 6.5kg). That horse franked the form with good second since in Starlight. Nash on.

Other chances:

10.Drachenfels ($17.60)- Trial OK but I love him fresh. Runs his best races first and second up for mine. Beaten 5L first-up last prep but should have almost won. Just gives them a start.

9.Stephan ($10.60)- Always slow out but was able to use low draw last start to hunt up and win latest. Bit more depth here but low draw helps again. Has a nice turn of foot.

6.Lady Tigeressa ($8.70)- 1400m back to 1100m a month between runs the knock but brings different form and will be closing off. May also be ablee to park up closer in side draw.,

1. Enigman ($21.5), 2. Akasaki ($35.8), 8. Ghostly ($21.5).

 

R8

Overview: Burning Crown has really hit his straps of late and he set a strong tempo last start and was able to maintain it. He should roll along in front again and prove hard to run down. Poetic Charmer just got too far back first-up but he closed off well and should settle closer here. Tony’s Reward pulled up lame last start and looks a good place chance here. Nicco Lad has trialled well leading into his return, while Echo Jet gets the blinkers on. Malea Magic is not hopeless but looks short enough,

Advice: Burning Crown to win. Tony’s Reward a place chance at odds.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Burning Crown should roll along at a good clip in front.

Likely market trend: Burning Crown should start a firm fav.

Selections: 9-3-6-4

9.Burning Crown ($2)- Really hit his straps of late and burnt the candle at both ends when winning LS when rolling along at a very good clip in front. Similar tactics you would expect. Bolted in prior in country grade defeating subs Hway winner.

3.Poetic Charmer ($5)- Got back and closed off well first-up following some good trials prior to that as well. Can park closer here.

6.Tony’s Reward ($12.70)- Pulled up lame last start forgive and held up there as well as overracing. Form prior was good. Just gives them a start.

4.Echo Jet ($17.70)- Blinkers on- Just fair in two runs back, blinkers sharpen him up?

Other runners:

1. Ronstar ($23.6), 2. Demonstrate ($143.5), 3. Poetic Charmer ($5), 4. Echo Jet ($17.7), 5. The Party Girl ($35.9), 6. Tony's Reward ($12.7), 9. Burning Crown ($1.9), 10. I Am Capitan ($57.4), 11. Wildwood Jade ($39.9), 12. Tessera ($143.5).

 

R9

Overview: Hard to go past Outrageous and he was a good thing beaten last start. He has really hit his straps and his win prior to that was strong as well (albeit against inferior opposition). Yulong January was disappointing first-up but bounded to the front second up and was too strong. Spencer is up in grade here but he drops a huge 8kg off a city win, while Smartedge and Strome also have each-way prospects.

Advice: Outrageous the horse to beat but Spencer on top at the value,

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Murillo should roll to the front with Toryjoy and Onslaught coming across.

Likely market trend: Outrageous to start fav but may drift a touch off $2.40?

Selections: 14-4-3-1

14.Spencer ($9.80)- Up in grade but drops 8kg off a city win and draws well. Loved his strength through the line last start.

4.Outrageous ($3): Good thing beaten last start and senior jock goes on here. Won well prior against an average field. Maps well and gets another chance.

3. Murillo ($5.50)- Should find the front and lead. Bolted in two back doing so and brave second latest.

1.Smartedg ($8.40):  4 trials heading into this so should be fit enough for 1400m fresh. Can often run a cheeky race fresh. Beat Notation (although that horse should have won!) before a break. Can sprint well fresh despite the big weight.

Other chances:

2.Strome ($9.80): Overcame slow tempo to score LS. Win was a bit of a shick but always capable of that. Can she reproduce?

Other chances:

8. Toryjoy ($14.9), 9. Onslaught ($80.6), 10. Primitivo ($30.2), 11. Mapmaker ($30.2), 12. Solo Mission ($120.9), 13. San Fransisco ($241.7).



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