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Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Jan 18

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW ROSEHILL JAN 18 Nov 30 2019

Hardest to beat

Race 1 no.7 Cellsabeel $2.50 (rated $2.80, confidence 7/10)

***Not in strategies as under my rated price***

I’m confident that Cellsabeel comes through the strongest form line here and it just comes down to whether she handles the wet track. I loved her trial with the blinkers on recently and she should be strong late.

Best roughie

Race 4 no.1 Royal Tudor $13 ** rated ($10.70, confidence 6/10) Playing tote as expect to drift)

Concede Stella Sea Sun is the horse to beat but I’m expecting a cheeky run from Royal Tudor here. He did enough fresh behind Taniko and his wet record is very good and he gets in OK with the claim. He was beaten just 1.5L by Redzel in a Hall Mark on heavy and won with 64.5kg on a heavy track in the country last prep. Worth a play at the odds.

 

Other at odds worth a speck

Race 2 no.1 Show Me The Honey $11 and race 8 no.7 Killer Instinct $8.50

 

Normal strategy (60 units)

Race 2 no.1 Show Me The Honey 10 unit win tote

Race 4 no.1 Royal Tudor 10 unit win tote and 10 unit place tote

Race 8 no.7 Killer Instinct 10 unit win at $8.50

10 unit early quaddie (13.88%, starts r2): 1st leg: 1,6,8,3,5,14. 2nd leg: 1,6. 3rd leg: 1,6,7,2,8,3. 4th leg: 3.

10 unit main quaddie (10.41%, starts r6): 1st leg: 2,7,5. 2nd leg: 4,2,8,1. 3rd leg: 7,13,5,4. 4th leg: 8,9.

Results: -1247.1 units (-15%POT, 8236 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (0.95 units)

Race 2 no.1 Show Me The Honey 0.2 unit win tote

Race 4 no.1 Royal Tudor 0.25 unit win tote  and 0.25 unit place tote (only two divs)

Race 8 no.7 Killer Instinct 0.25 unit win at $8.50

Results: -20.6 units (-20.4%POT, 101.1 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Track: Rail true, heavy track.

-24/11/2018      Rosehill True      G4         Confident best ground off fence here 3-4 wide seemed place to be in straight. Just didn't really want to be hard fence or out too wide

19/01/2019       Rosehill True      G4         On pace helped. Probably ddin't want to be hard fence. Most winnerd wide but still some close to fence won

16/03/2019       Rosehill True      H10       Getting a few off fence here and wider good too.

18/05/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Pretty fair track, fence OK but I still reckon wider the better and fence sl inferior. Lanes 3-6 OK but wider fine too

29/06/2019       Rosehill True      H9         bit on pace to start with but swooped last few races and evened up midway. Fence a no go here Wanted to get middle and wider.

10/08/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Pretty fair although I reckon hard fence was inferior up to two lanes out

28/09/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Fence in run slight adv, lanes ok in str- mixed bag

2/11/2019         Rosehill True      G4         Fair track

30/11/2019       Rosehill True      G4         Pretty fair although no disadv to be a little wider on track straight

Assessment: Generally pretty fair but expecting them to get to the middle of the track. Wide gates should be no disadvantage.

Wind: Gentle.

R1

Overview: I’m confident that Cellsabeel comes through the strongest form line here and it just comes down to whether she handles the wet track. I loved her trial with the blinkers on recently. Beyliks has also trialled well leading in and he wasn’t far away in the Breeders’ Plate on debut. Return With Honour won well on debut but this has more depth and he might have a bit of company on speed in the shape of Princess Zeddy, who has impressed at the trials and also commands respect here.

Advice: Cellsabeel to win providing the track isn’t bottomless.

Speed map: Return With Honour and Princess Zeddy look the two that roll forward. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: Expecting Cellsabeel to remain fav.

Selections: 7-2-1-12

7.Cellsabeel ($2.80): Confident she comes through the strongest form line. Slashign fourth in the Golden Gift and they ran time (quicker than benchmark race on day). Loved the latest trial with the blinkers on. Looks htb- Only knock is if it’s proper wet and then ?

2.Beyliks ($5.20): Good effort in Breeders and nice trial leading in. Ran quicker time than the Gimcrack but still feel the Golden Gift is a better race personally. Maps well

1.Return With Honour ($6.60):- Soft lead but won well pn debut. Figures just OK after soft time on speed. Should find lead again unless Princess Zeddy kicks up.

12.Princess Zeddy ($8)- Nice trial only one leading in- Lead, ran quicker time than Cellsabeel on day and looks to have ability. Market?

Other runners:

1. Return With Honour ($6.6), 2. Beyliks ($5.2), 6. Lord Of War ($28.7), 7. Cellsabeel ($2.8), 8. In Flanders ($18.9), 9. Desert Flame ($57.4), 11. Jesta Diva ($28.7), 13. Cosmic Miss ($38.3).

R2

Overview: Very open race. I want to make a case Show Me The Honey. He had no luck at all last start and he just has to lump the big weight here and the inside draw could be a negative if the track is playing to the middle as I expect it may. Dubai Tycoon, Who’s Shout and Roseirro are all caoavle of winning this as well, while the early money has come for Absolute Trust and he won well last start and wasn’t far away in a Highway prior. He has trialled well on wet ground too. Sennacherib also had no luck last start.

Advice: Could speck Show Me The Honey and Sennacherib.

Speed map: Peyton Place looks the leader with Absolute Trust and Onemorechoice rolling forward. Speed should be genuine enough.

Likely market trend: Could go a lot of ways.

Selections: 1-6-8-3

1.Show Me The Honey ($10.70): No luck LS and gets up in trip now. Wet track wouldn’t be bad either (just not too heavy). 61kg and inside draw (is it playing to the middle?) the leveller.

6.Absolute Trust ($4.10): Fourth in Hway and then back to country and won well- 6L quicker other race same distance on day- Trialled really well on soft ground.

8.Who’s Shout ($9.80): Found the line LS and a real wet track would bring him into this. 2nd to Assaultnbathory heavy track last prep and does like it.

3.Dubai Tycoon ($8.40): Chased home a smart one three back and then won well 1400m (quickest 4 x 1400m races on day). Benchmark grade latest and solid enough. Won soft 5 and 3rd H10 trial back in 2018 when didn’t really enjoy conditions. 1500m the slight?

Other chances:

5.Sennacherib ($9.80): Should have been somewhere in the finisb LS. Had no luck at all. Won a weak rating/form race prior but has to be respected off last run.

14.Roseirro ($17):- Well held in Hway lst year but liked the way he found the line LS to score (2nd QL200 of day too). Form hasn’t stacked up out of race though.

Other runners:

2. Peyton Place ($24.1), 4. Sawtell ($30.2), 7. Acquittal ($11.9), 10. Successful Day ($30.2), 11. Onemorechoice ($17), 12. Refire ($60.3), 13. Pink Moscato ($#DIV/0!), 15. Time Stalker ($120.5).

R3

Overview: Hard to beat Lashes here who was very impressive first-up and can carry on her way here. She beat Kylease on a heavy track early days but has also put in a below par performance on heavy ground too so a really wet track could be a query. Switched looks the main danger and she was just run down at 1200m last start. Back to 1100m suits. Echo Gem excels on wet ground and gets a soft lead, while Press Box looks next best.

Advice: Lashes providing the track isn’t bottomless.

Speed map: Echo Gem looks the leader with Switched and potentially Worldly Pleasure (ridden quieter last start) prominent. Speeds looks even.

Likely market trend: Lashes and Switched should be popular.

Selections: 1-6-5-2

1.Lashes ($1.80):  Hard to beat- Set up for her fresh but won very well with a nice finish. Trialled well prior and looks to hae come back well. Up to 59kg but maps well and just doesn’t want it too wet perhaps? Has won heavy but also below par heavy?

6.Switched ($4.20): Just caught late when out to 1200m latest. Back to 1100m here, should be close to speed and give a good kicl. Gets 4kg off fav and gets through all conditions.

5.Echo Gem ($13.80): Tim Clark will give her every chance in front and she should get a soft enough ead. Likes wet tracks, just not sure she is as good as the other two?

2.Press Box ($13.80): Resuming- Nice kick off point and assuming she is Country Champs bouncd.

Other runners:

4. Worldly Pleasure ($27.9), 8. Polhampton ($74.5), 9. Elysia ($558.5).

R4

Overview: I want to make a cheeky case for Royal Tudor at odds here and I thought he did enough fresh to be competitive here providing the rain arrives. He loves a wet track and was beaten just .5L behind Redzel in a Hall Mark on heavu ground and also won with 64.5kg in the country on a heavy track last prep. Stella Sea Sun was bumped off balance first up and she is proven on wet ground. Gets her chance here, Julian Rock is another one who excels on wet ground (trainer said he was a good wet tracker in an interview last year as well) and he just has to reproduce the last start effort to go close. Commander and Dual Escape are also great wet trackers but may need a run?

Advice: Could speck Royal Tudor if the rain arrives.

Speed map: Not a lot of speed here with Commander and Manhattan Miss most prominent.

Likely market trend: Expect Stella Sea Sun to start short.

Selections:  1-6-7-2

1.Royal Tudor ($10.70): Did enough fresh behind Taniko and just hoping for a lot of rain- His wet record is very good and he gets in OK with the claim. Beaten just 1.5L by Redzel in a Hall Mark on heavy, won with 64.5kg on heavy track last prep.

6.Stella Sea Sun ($2.90): no luck fresh when pushed off balance in straight but never shirked task. Heavy track city winner.

7.Julian Rock ($4.40): Just going OK and then bolted in LS in good figures (form out of race ordinary?). Trainer said in an interview last year he is a good wet tracker and record says that.

2.Commander ($12.10) and 8.Dual Escape ($24.50) are good wet trackers and not hopeless albeit the fact they may need a run or two to get fitness up?

Other chances:

3.Jen Rules ($5.60): Won in soft figures LS- not hopeless.

8. No Escape ($24.50): Great wet tracker- Just thought up the query?

Other runners:

4. Manhattan Mist ($32.6).

R5

Overview: Hard to go past Big Parade and he was solid the other day in Sydney without raving about. The 1300m should suit and this looks an easier race for him. He has trialled well on soft ground. Enfleurage should make use of the low draw and be nice and positive early and she comes through a solid rating race last start as well. I love the booking of Tim Clark but the 1300m is the query. Unguarded and Aim For Perfection can run on late and look next best.

Advice: Big Parade to win.

Speed map: Enfleurage and Big Parade look the two on speed runners- Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Big Parade will be popular.

Selections: 3-11-6-8

3.Big Parade ($2.20):  Should roll to the front- Solid LS without raving about. Now 1300m. Trialled well soft so should get through condotions.

11.Enfluerage ($7.50): Comes through a solid rating race and finds T Clark and could find the lead- Query is 1300m? Trialled well soft but both soft runs avg.

6.Unguarded ($8.50): held up and good from back ast start. Beat home Aim For Perfection there and extra trip suits.

8.Aim For Perfection ($3.90): Got back fresh and found the line OK late. Soft would be OK, may not want too wet?

Other runners:

7. In Lighten Me ($27.9), 9. Noble Fight ($11), 10. Fasano ($22.4), 13. Belitsa ($37.3).

R6

Overview: Not much between He’s A Hotshot and Inanup for mine here. He’s A Hotshot failed in his only wet run but he pulled up with cardiac arrythmia so be forgiving. He should be on speed and give a nice kick. Inanup beat home subsequent dominant winner Yamazaki last start and he has mixed wet form. Tony’s Reward closes off strongly late but may have to give them a big start from the gate, while Dio D’Oro relishes wet ground and comes into play if the heavens open.

Advice: He’s A Hotshot and Inanup look the two.

Speed map: He’s A Hotshot, Manangatang and Isorich all roll forward. Could be a muddling tempo.

Likely market trend: Dio D’Oro has already been backed and may firm again.

Selections: 2-7-5-4

2.Inanup ($4.10): Mixed wet form- Showed good dash to win latest when beat home dominant subs winner Yamazaki. Going well this prep- finishes well again- gate 1?

7.He’s A Hotshot ($4.10): Maps well on speed- Comes out of a slow rating race but has been going well of late. Failed only wet run but pulled up with cardiac arrythmia so forgive. Trialled OK only on wet?

5.Dio D’Oro ($9.40): Nice trial leading in- Limited but does enjoy a wet track. Wetter the better for him.

4.Tony’s Reward ($9.40): Good effort latest where used gate to be midfield loomed and just knocked up in stronger race than this. Just gate against, has to give them a decent start?

Other runners:

6. Coterie ($11.4), 8. Isorich ($14.2), 9. Drachenfels ($19), 10. High Cost ($28.9), 11. Magnarock ($57.7), 12. Charlie Cat ($57.7), 13. Mangangatang ($115.3).

Race 7

Overview: Tactics will be interesting on Invictus Salute here and she is generally up there on speed but there is good speed underneath her. I think it gives her a good opportunity to find a nice trail and she does enjoy wet ground. Her last two runs have been full of merit and she was brave when taken on in front last start. Laburnum has trialled up well and can do no work from the low draw here, while Embracer (1100m a bit short?) and River Bird both have claims as well.

Advice: Invictus Salute to win.

Speed map: Good speed here with Embracer, Oriental Runner, Royal Witness and Tonsor all prominent.

Likely market trend: Could go a number of ways here.

Selections: 4-2-8-1

4.Invictus Salute ($4.70): Taken on up on speed last start and brave in defeat. Won well prior and does like 1100m here. Wet track should help too. Can probably park off these and get last crack.

2.Laburnum ($8.50): liked the trial leading in and wasn’t far away 1100m this grade fresh last prep. Can park off a strong speed and should be strong late.

8.River Bird ($9.90): shpuld be strong late and chancs as well. Seem to get through conditions.

1.Connemara ($8.50): Trialled well and gets through conditions.

Other chances:

6.Embracer ($5.50): Having a really good prep- Back to 1100m the worry for mine and prefer him at 1200m where he can dictate. Also doesn’t ant it too wet.

10. Broken Arrows ($9.90): Gets back but has a nice finish on day- Always capable.

Other runners:

3. Tonsor ($20.2), 5. Royal Witness ($15.1), 9. Oriental Runners ($20.2).

R8

Overview: Killer Instinct is a progressive mare and the John O’Shea yard is absolutely airborne.  I just thought she was slightly over the odds here and the speed looks very strong which will set it up for those off speed in my opinion. Magic Over The Bay had the race run to suit last start but it should be similar here. This horse is going great guns this prep. Mr Dependable may take the sit off this strong speed but just needs to relax (tired last 200m last start after overracing midrace), while Birth Of Venus can run on late.

Advice: Leaning to Killer Instinct at the odds.

Speed map: Strong speed engaged with Dylan’s Romance. Mercurial Lad and Mr Dependable all leaders. Should go quick!

Likely market trend: No real comment.

Selections: 7-13-5-4

7.Killer Instinct ($7.60): Nice win laresr and up to 2000m looks no issue at all. Progressive mare, another level here but up to it and stable is airborne! Something like 18 winners last 50 runners for stable!or440aeqwewq1n

13.Magic Over The Bay ($9.60): Comes out of weaker grade but race shape is key here and they shou;d go very hard early. She likes sting out, is going great gund and should be strong late.

5.Mr Dependable ($3): Reckon he might tuck in for some cover here as speed looks strong- Just overdid it last start kicked for home but was still strong late. Should kick again and just all about whether he behaves in the run. Best horse in the race.

4. Word For Word ($5):  2000m, wet track- one more chance? Gets her right set up today but has been costly.

Other chances:

11.Birth Of Venus ($12): Not far off Killer Instinct LS and gets 5kg swing!. Eztra trip suirs and should be strong late providing track isn’t too wet?

Other runners:

1. Bobby Dee ($18.2), 2. Dylan's Romance ($147.6), 3. Mercurial Lad ($29.5), 9. Raqeeq ($49.2), 12. Arraignment ($73.8), 15. Kiarra Rose ($147.6).

R9

Overview: Bandersnatch should lead for a long way but 1500m is on his outer limits. He is just overdoing it a touch in the run still and needs to learn to relax. Welsh Legend and Laure Me In look the other main hopes but this race revolved around the confidence (or lack thereof) in import Mugatoo.

Advice: Left with Bandersnatch on top after scratchings but not confident.

Speed map: Bandersnatch should lead and roll at a decent enough clip.

Likely market trend: No real comment.

Selections: 8-9-4-11

8.Bandersnatch ($2.10): brave on speed when beat all bar Leviathan last start- 1500m looks on outer limits as he still does a fair bit wrong but should lead and give them something to run down.

9.Welsh Legend ($5.80): off a decent break here and first up form is just fair. Did like the trial though leading in.

4. Condor ($8.80): next best

11. All But Gone ($47.70): Runs on late and enjoys wet track but backmarker who needs everything to go right.

Other runners:

1. Notio ($17.9),  5. Costello ($11.8), 6. Muswellbrook ($17.9), 8. Bandersnatch ($2.1), 13. Vee Eight ($142.9).



Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Jan 18 - Brad Davidson preview Rosehill Jan 18

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