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Brad Davidson preview Kembla Grange Nov 23

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW KEMBLA GRANGE NOV 23 Nov 21 2019

Meeting: Kembla Grange

Best bet:

Race 4 no.7 Lucicello $2.70 (rated $2.50, confidence 8/10)

Overcame a slow tempo to score first-up and gee I loved the way she settled. More speed here, settles midfield and should be sprinting home very strongly. Such a likeable horse now she is settling.

Best value:

Race 6 no.17 Asterius $17 (rated $13.50, confidence 6/10)

Looks the best roughie in the race at $19. Did enough fresh and then overcame slow tempo to score second up. Does no work here and 1600m third up looks ideal. Just needs the gaps. Showed last prep from low draw Rosehill he can race inside horses and pinch ground.

 

Best place

Gosford

Race 6 no.14 Fulmina $3.8 place only

Instant Attraction looks the winner but I like the $4.40 on offer for this horse to place. Comes through a very strong maiden last prep and liked the two trials this time in. Should be running on.

 

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (200 units)

Kembla Grange Saturday

Race 3 no.14 Fastnet Cyclone 10 unit win tote

Race 4 no.7 Lucicello 25 unit win at $2.70 (**already taken)

Race 4 no.7 Lucicello 15 unit win tote

Race 5 no.13 All But Gone 5 unit place at $17

Race 6 no.17 Asterius 15 unit win at $17 (**already taken)

Race 7 no.10 Koonunga 15 unit win at $9

10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 6.9%): 1st leg: 17-15-6-2. 2nd leg: 10-6-4. 3rd leg: 1-12-6-9. 4th leg: 7-3-13/ ==.

15 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 20.8%): 1st leg: 5,6,2. 2nd leg: 7-14-3. 3rd leg: 7-6. 4th leg: 10-4-1-13.

Gosford today

Race 6 no.14 Fulmina 40 unit place at $3.8

Wagga Monday

Race 1 no.5 Powerscourt 50 unit win at $6

Results: -392.4 units (-7.1% POT, 5491 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy  (6.2 units)

Kembla Grange Sat

Race 3 no.14 Fastnet Cyclone 0.25 unit win tote

Race 4 no.7 Lucicello 0.75 unit win at $2.70  (**already taken)

Race 4 no.7 Lucicello 0.5 unit win tote

Race 5 no.13 All But Gone 0.2 unit place at $17

Race 6 no.17 Asterius 0.5 unit win at $17  (**already taken)

Race 7 no.10 Koonunga 0.5 unit win at $9

Gosford today

Race 6 no.14 Fulmina 1.5 unit place at $3.8

Wagga Monday

Race 1 no.5 Powerscourt 2 unit win at $6

Results: -1.7 units (-8.9%POT, 18.95 units)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: True.

History of track bias: No data.  

Assessment: Monitor track pattern.

Wind: Gentle to moderate SSE. Tailwind in home straight (running into early 1300-1600m races).

 

Race 1

Overview: Mrs Maisel looks to have plenty of talent and a lot will come down to how she begins and where she settles. She missed the start horribly in her first trial but jumped much better at her second trial and won that easily in good time. Destination has had two soft trials leading in and he looks the danger, while Found Our Thrill should make her own luck up on speed although was no match for Mrs Maisel in her latest trial.

Advice: Mrs Maisel on top.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Found Our Thrill looks the likely leader but Mrs Maisel should be handy (if she jumps) and Destination won’t be far away. Galactic Fury should be prominent. Hard to map this.

Likely market trend: Mrs Maisel should start a firm fav.

Selections: 6-2-5-3 

***No prices due to insufficient data****

6.Mrs Maisel- Missed the start horribly first trial and stormed home under little pressure. Then jumped a lot better (on terms) and then went to front and won well in solid time. L600 33.5 and wasn’t asked a great deal. Looks talented, just barrier issues/gate the issue.

2.Destination-Two trials- Soft one first one, second one pushed along and closed off well. Overall trial time almost identical to Mrs Maisel on the day but L600 was 2-3L slower and he was pushed along and she wasn’t. Drawn well and seems sensible type.

5.Found Our Thrill- Two trials- Shown enough speed to be right up there without being super quick out. Couldn’t tell how much pressure under in first trial (horse to her outside) but given one shake up in latest trial and no match Mrs Maisel.

3.Galactic Fury- Closed off OK in slow rating race Bendigo then stuck to task in weak rating G3 MARIBYRNONG Plate at Flem. Race was some 1.6s or 10L slower than other 1000m race on day.

 

Race 2

Overview: Intriguing Highway. I think there are three main hopes and one decent roughie. The three main hopes are Sneak Preview, Two Wrongs Don’t and Belfast Bella. Sneak Preview has a sense of timing about him off two strong runs at 1200m and 1400m, while Two Wrongs Don’t probably should have won a Highway at 1500m at Rosehill last start and will be storming home here. Belfast Bella had her chance in a weak rating race fresh but has great form lines around Wolfe and Master Of Wine last prep that read very well for this. Upper House has found 1200m way too short in two runs this prep and might jump out of the ground here. The last race he was in was also run at an extremely slow tempo.

Advice:

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Peyton Place, Jungle Book and Defy roll forward as does Moss The Boss if he gets a run. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 5-6-2-16

5. Sneak Preview ($4.7): Took some ground off subsequent Sat winner Burning Crown two back and then strong when winning at 1400m last start. Horse he beat there has form around Takissacod which ties in OK here. Mile looks OK.

6. Two Wrongs Don’t ($6.3): Clocked some outstanding sectionals two back and then probably should have won last start where was wide and just ran out of time. Gets a long way back here as he is always slow to begin but will be rocketing home.

2. Belfast Bella ($7.5): Sectionals weren’t anything great out of fresh run (3L slower than the mdn on the day) where she had her chance but form looks strong last prep for this. Form around Wolfe and Master Of Wine reads very well!

16. Jungle Book ($17.1): QL200 of the day when powering home to win over a mile. Form prior was just fair?

Other runners:

1. Peyton Place ($11.2), 3. Hemmerle ($17.1), 4. Senrima Tide ($17.1), 8. Acquital ($11.2), 10. Lord Desanimaux ($46.2), 11. Clergyman ($34.7), 12. Magpie ($19.5), 13. Quick Spin ($27.8), 18. Moss The Boss ($25), 19. Metralla ($80), 20. Roseirro ($100).

 

Race 3

Overview: Some progressive staying types take part here and none more so than California Longbow. I loved his win last start and he was super strong through the line. I think he is a nice staying horse in the making and 2000m is the natural progression. There is a good roughie here in Fastnet Cyclone. He hasn’t had a lot go right this prep but I loved the way he knuckled down last start. I spoke to Richard Litt and he said there has been no setback re the month between runs. Jazzland is progressing nicely and he did beat subsequent winner Soldier Of Love last start. Master Shuhood and Mr Reckless next best.

Advice: California Longbow the horse to beat but Fastnet Cyclone the value.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Mercurial Lad looks the leader and should ensure a genuine tempo. Jazzland is also up there.

Likely market trend: California Longbow and Jazzland should be popular.

Selections: 7-14-3-1

7. California Longbow ($4): Progressive stayer. Probably at his right price here but loved how strong he was through the line LS and 2000m is perfect now.

14. Fastnet Cyclone ($15.3): Worth a speck at the odds. Chased hard behind Maid Of Ore last start and his late splits were strong. Humboldt Current and Miss Moana won out of the race. 53kg from good draw. Rain would help.

3. Jazzland ($5): Won 2/2 this prep- Beat Soldier Of Love LS who has won since but rating was fair and I think it’s still a step up here.

1. Master Shuhood ($14): Blinkers off a help as he has been a bit keen of late. Rarely runs a bad race and back in grade.

Other chances:

6. Mangione ($9.9): Just peaked on the run LS but nice effort all the same. 2000m looks logical progression.

2. Mr Reckless ($12.9): Went to line with Asterius and then stayed at 1500m and plugged. Nash replaces apprentice in big riding change. 2000M a plus.

10. Nordic ($17): Tempo against but found the line well fresh and winner of that race has won again since. Has trialled well since. Would like some rain. Won 2200m in NZ. 2000M no issue.

Other runners:

4. Plaisir ($21.3), 5. Mercurial Lad ($86.4), 8. Zourhea ($14), 12. Eugene's Pick ($28.4), 15. He's Imposing ($172).

 

Race 4

Overview: Hard to tip against Lucicello and her win was better than it looked fresh. She overcame a slow tempo there and importantly settled the best she has ever done. There’s more speed here and she should be hard to hold out. Misteed absolutely flies fresh and she looks the obvious danger for mine. She would like a drop of rain. Kylease was a bit disappointing last prep but had to work hard fresh and may have felt the effects of that second up. She has been freshened up and has trialled well. Call Me Royal gets the blinkers on race day (hasn’t worn them in her trials) and is not hopeless either.

Advice: Lucicello to win.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Speed looks strong with Kylease, Musume and Call Me Royal all noted leaders.

Likely market trend: Lucicello should start a firm favourite.

Selections: 7-6-8-1

7. Lucicello ($2.5): Overcame a slow tempo to score first-up and gee I loved the way she settled. More speed here, settles midfield and should be sprinting home very strongly. Such a likeable horse now she is settling.

6. Misteed ($6.5): All her best form is on wet ground (maybe a shower Sat?) but I love her fresh runs. Won first-up at Canterbury last prep despite only getting out very late. Trials have been super. Ready to run really well.

8. Kylease ($7.3): Forgive first-up last prep when worked and then disapp second up. Trialled well but always trials well. Should find the front, some pressure from out wide but Nash Rawiller on a big plus.

1. Call Me Royal ($17.2): Trials have been OK without the blinkers and they go back on race day. Just a beauty. Doubt she leads but rolls forward and runs well. Big weight?

Other chances:

Other runners:

2. Freehearted ($34.8), 4. Pumpkin Pie ($30.5), 5. The Party Girl ($27.1), 9. Handspun ($40.6), 10. Blazing Miss ($17.2), 11. Jen Rules ($49.4), 12. Musume ($164), 13. Switched ($25).

 

Race 5

Overview: Very open race after the scratching of Asterius, who will run in The Gong. Esteemed Spirit has a great record at this track and his latest win was six lengths quicker than the benchmark race on the day. Turnberry had on pace favours last start but stuck on well all the same, while Matowi had no luck at all fresh and probably should have won second up last campaign at this distance range. Testashadow wasn’t far away in a Listed race last start and also must be respected in this grade. All But Gone and Our Winnie aren’t hopeless at odds either and the former of those two was pretty good last start (sectionals were solid).

Advice: Many chances. Slight leaning to Esteemed Spirit.

Confidence: 4/10

Speed map: Solid speed expected with Turnberry, Esteemed Spirit, Dylan’s Romance and Tahsin all rolling forward.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 10-4-1-13

10. Esteem Spirit ($5.3): Great record here and last win here had good merit. The time was 6L quicker benchmark race on day (quicker early but quicker late too). Handles wet or dry, light weight, on speed top pick.

4. Turnberry ($5.7): Had on pace favours but stuck on well latest all the same and should be better for that. Rolls up on speed here and just keeps on kicking this horse.

1. Testashadow ($6.7): Not far away in Listed race latest. Hasn’t won for a while now but last two runs have been good and gets every chance.

13. All But Gone ($36.2): Not hopeless hereKnocked up fresh and then back off a slow speed and sprinted clear latest to win well. 33S home L600 and 11s L200 over 1600m but they were running time and this is clearly harder.

Other chances:

3. Gresham ($7.2): Struggles to win but not badly graded here and is one for top 4s.

Other runners:

5. Fun Fact ($12.9), 6. Aqua D'Ivina ($11.6), 7. Dylan's Romance ($29.4), 9. Cuban Royale ($14.5), 12. Tahsin ($19.3),

 

Race 6

Overview: Open first edition of The Gong. I love the way Quackerjack is going and he was too good in a Goulburn Cup last start and this is a natural progression. A shower would enhance his chances as well. I think Asterius is over the odds here at $19. He overcame a slow tempo last start and should do no work from the gate with no weight on his back. Luvaluva gets the blinkers again and has put in two eye catchers this prep, while Star Of The Seas will appreciate dropping back to this grade after he was a bit disappointing last time out in Melbourne.

Advice: Quackerjack the horse to beat but Asterius looks the value.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Taikomochi and Quackerjack look the only real leaders and speed looks moderate to even.

Likely market trend: Expect Quackerjack to be popular and Asterius to start shorter than $19.

Selections: 17-15-6-2

17. Asterius ($13.5): Looks the best roughie in the race at $19. Did enough fresh and then overcame slow tempo to score second up. Does no work here and 1600m third up looks ideal. Just needs the gaps. Showed last prep from low draw Rosehill he can race inside horses and pinch ground.

15. Quackerjack ($5.4): Love the way he is building this prep. Nice effort fresh, then too good in Goulburn Cup. Looks a logical target third up and rain won’t bother him. Form around Kolding last prep and meets Asterius 3.5kg better off for beating that horse home two back.

6. Luvaluva ($6.2): Blinkers again- Has really caught the eye in two runs this prep. 1600m looks ideal now and has won at this t/d. Gets in light and should be midfield.

2. Star Of The Seas ($8.9): Disappointing LS but form prior was great including brave run in Epsom. He is a swimmer so chances enhanced if it rains.

Other chances:

9. Noble Boy ($10.2): Great run in Chatham where back to inside which was inferior. Chased home Quackerjack prior. Runs well.

Other runners:

1. Mister Sea Wolf ($29.1), 3. Nicoletta ($59.1), 4. El Dorado Dreaming ($12.1), 5. Looks Like Elvis ($23.3), 7. Military Zone ($13.1), 8. Sir Plush ($236.2), 10. Goodfella ($47.3), 11. Jonker ($59.1), 12. Testashadow ($#DIV/0!), 13. Taikomochi ($33.3), 14. Articus ($38.8), 16. Tamarack ($59.1), 18. Ranier ($#DIV/0!), 19. Esteem Spirit ($#DIV/0!), 20. All But Gone.

 

 

Race 7

Overview: Competitive sprint. I like the way Koonunga won last start at the provincials and the second and third horse that day have both won since. Broken Arrows is airborne and he just needs a bit of luck to go very close here. Seasons has been well backed in early markets and she is clearly a talent. She is first-up off a long break though with just the one trial and she is not a 1000m horse. Can still win on class alone. Brazenpine and Rare Episode best of the rest.

Advice: Not much between Broken Arrows and Koonunga. Seasons could win on talent alone.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Strong speed engaged with Tropezina, Rare Episode, Ori On Fire and Mossman Gorge all up there early.

Likely market trend: This all revolves around the confidence with Seasons?

Selections: 10-6-4-13

10. Koonunga ($6.8): Just missed three back, two back very good rating race where well held. Latest too good over 900m defeating two subs winners (2nd and 3rd). Midfield and runs on. 

6. Broken Arrows($5.5): Gets back but going great guns. Didn’t beat much LS but put a gap in them and should be storming home. Beat Trumbull narrowly prior.

4. Seasons ($4.10): Love her as a horse but off a long break here, 1000m short enough with apprentice on. Can win but a couple of little queries. Likeable horse though and trial was fine.

13. Brazenpine ($8): Too classy against average field latest in fair figures but has been going really well this prep. 53kg, gate 6, can get last cracl.

Other chances:

5. Rare Episode ($10.7): Might just burn to the front here and prove hard to catch. Trials just OK but latest comes through heat 11L quicker any other 1045m heat day, L600 of 33.19 very strong. Fitness first up with pressure on speed? J Mac on. Other chances:

Other runners:

1. Akasaki ($23), 2. Latin Boy ($93.3), 7. Ghostly ($93.3), 8. And So It Goes ($62.20), 9. Mossman Gorge ($23), 11. Tropezina ($23), 12. I Am Magnificent ($186.50), 14. Stone Cold ($62.20), 15. Ori On Fire ($62.20).

 

Race 8

Overview: Tony’s Reward closed off very strongly last start and he finished alongside Trumbull there who is much shorter in the market here. The gate is the worry but I still think the price difference between the two of them is a bit too large. Both are good chances though and both seem to be looking for 1200m. Trumbull just needs to jump well again like he did last start (was jumping poorly prior to that). Poetic Charmer is trialling the house down and he could easily come out here and go bang. He has always trialled well though but the latest was very good (in slick time!). Americana Magic beat Trumbull and Tony’s Reward last start and must be respected on that alone. Can he reproduce that?

Advice: Open race. Tony’s Reward the value at $15 but Trumbull, Poetic Charmer and Americana Magic are all hopes.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks moderate with Americana Magic, I Am Capitan and Echo Jet the three up there.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 1-12-6-9

1. Americana Magic ($6.8): beat Trumbull and Tony’s Reward last start and maps well with McEvoy going aboard. Started $16 there.Can he reproduce? 60.5kg?

12. Tony's Reward ($8.9): The gate is the query but loved the way he finished off after having to get too far back in a race that split in two LS. Finished alongside Trumbull there and he is $3.90 here. 1200m suits, just gets back? $15 worth a speck all the same.

6. Poetic Charmer ($7.4): Love the way he has been trialling up but he can do that. Still latest trial made ground in heat run 11L quicker any other 1045m heat day, L600 of 33.19 very strong. Disapp when well backed LS but went straight for a break?

9. Trumbull ($4.3): Jumped away cleanly last start (after developing a habit two starts prior of missing the jump) and race split in two but closed off well. JMAC on, good gate. Does he jump?

Other chances:

5. Echo Jet ($9.4): WNC first-up albeit still disapp. Can improve sharply here from the better draw. Beat Reelem In Ruby last prep and gave that horse 5.5kg that day.

Other runners:

2. Grimoire ($20.3), 4. What Could Be ($32.9), 7. Sheriff ($54.8), 8. Cinquedea ($18), 13. Roosevelt ($16.2), 14. Sanctioned ($27), 15. I Am Capitan ($82.2).

Race 9

Overview: Competitive race to close off the day. Destiny’s Own did enough first-up and he won second up last prep at 1400m. He maps here with James McDonald aboard. Groundbreak found the line well in a recent trial and he has only had the one public hitout in preparation for this 1400m event but Team Hawkes normally get them ready fresh. Boomtown Rat had no luck first-up last prep and always runs a race fresh, while Charretera and Final Award have each-way claims.

Advice: Not much between Groundbreak and Destiny’s Own.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Destiny’s Own, Bobby Dee and Charretera look the three go forward horses but speed looks moderate here.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 7-3-13-6

7. Destiny's Own ($5.6): Good effort fresh and will derive fitness benefit. Maps well on speed with JMac on. Won well 1400m second up last prep.

3. Groundbreak ($7.6): Liked the way he found the line in a recent trial. Only trial first up 1400m but Team Hawkes normally get them ready fresh. Won first-up last prep 1200m Flemington in solid figures (albeit poor form race).

13. Boomtown Rat ($9): Closed off nicely in trial. Runs well fresh. Should have gone first-up last prep 1250m Canterburt and won first up prep prior, New stable.

6. Final Award ($5.6): Made ground back on inferior ground after being held up LS. Beat all bar Romani Girl prior. Runs well but short enough at $4?

Other chance:

4. Bobby Dee ($10.3): Trials have been pleasing. Hard to tell where he is at for this and could be too short but monitor betting.

Other runners:

1. Berdibek ($32.8), 2. Shalmaneser ($98.4), 8. Super Star Bob ($12), 10. Defeat ($24.3), 11. Impavido ($36.9), 12. Prometheus ($98.4), 14. Julian Rock ($24.3), 15. Napoleon Solo ($18.2).



Brad Davidson preview Kembla Grange Nov 23 - Brad Davidson preview Kembla Grange Nov 23

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