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Brad Davidson preview Hawkesbury Nov 13

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW HAWKESBURY NOV 13 Nov 12 2019

Meeting: Hawkesbury, November 13

Best bet:

Race 6 no.3 Gimme Shelter $2.80 (rated $2.80, confidence 8/10)

Quite keen on Gimme Shelter here. Always liked her as a horse and she brings genuine Saturday city form to the table here. Her fresh runs have been really good too.

Expected firmers:

Expected drifters:

Race 4 no.2 Duclair $4.80 (short enough on form to date)

Race 7 no.6 Sedona $3.50 (winning time was very average last start. Has to drift)

Race 8 no.2 King Hewitt $3.20 (Just been going OK. Easier race but short enough?)

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (55 units)

Race 6 no.3 Gimme Shelter 35 units at $2.80

Race 7 no.5 Commute 15 unit win at $5

5 unit main quaddie (27.77%): 1st leg: 7,6. 2nd leg: 3. 3rd leg: 5-8-4. 4th leg: 8,3,4.

Results: -210 units (-4%POT, 5201 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Long game strategy (1.75 units)

Race 6 no.3 Gimme Shelter 1.25 unit win at $2.80

Race 7 no.5 Commute 0.5 unit win at $5

Results: +3.3 units (+31% POT, outlay 10.65 units)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: 3-2m, good track.

History of track bias: No history for Hawkesbury.                          

Assessment: Expecting fair track.

Wind: Changing direction throughout the door + speed changing too. Monitor.

 

 



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