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Brad Davidson preview Rosehill November 9

BRAD DAVIDSON PREVIEW ROSEHILL NOVEMBER 9 Nov 7 2019

***Prices before deductions on Thursday for best bets. Deductions to be applied

Rosehill, November 9

Best

Race 1 no.4 Lucicello $2 (rated $1.90, confidence 9/10)

Lucicello looks very hard to beat in the first and this three-year-old form continues to stack up. I loved her recent trial where she settled better than she ever has and she has the turn of foot to get over the top of these late.

Next best

Race 8 no.5 Trumbull $3.50 (rated $3.30, confidence 8/10)

 

Best value

Race 2 no.10 Two Wrongs Dont $17 and $5.50 (rated $8, confidence 7/10)

I think this is a great roughie. He has gone up big odds here and he looks to have come back really well. His last 600m when winning last start was 10 lengths above average for that class and he clocked the second quickest last 600m of the day. Kept fresh, drops 4.5kg. 

 

Normal strategy (195 units)

Race 1 no.4 Lucicello 35 unit win at $2

Race 2 no.10 Two Wrongs Dont 30 unit win at $17 and 30 unit place at $5

Race 4 no.3 Mangione 10 unit win at $7.50

Race 4 no.4 Stryke Rock 10 unit win at $10

Race 4 no.6 Baanone 5 unit win at $14

Race 6 no.10 See You Soon 10 unit win tote

Race 7 no.5 Dyslexic 10 unit win at $10

Race 7 no.12 Nicci’s Gold 5 unit win at $21

Race 8 no.4 Stephan 5 unit win at $23

Race 8 no.5 Trumbull 25 unit win at $3.40

5 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 31.25%): 1st leg: 10,17,11,7.. 2nd leg: 4. 3rd leg:4-3-2-6. 4th leg: 1.

15 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 7.81%): 1st leg: 10,1,7. 2nd leg: 12-5-10-6. 3rd leg: 5-9-4-3. 4th leg: 4-7-13-9

Results: -314.3 units ( 5006 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (5.65 units)

Race 1 no.4 Lucicello 1.25 unit win at $2

Race 2 no.10 Two Wrong Don’t 1 unit win at $17 and 1 unit place at $5

Race 4 no.3 Mangione 0.25 unit win at $7.50

Race 4 no.6 Baanone 0.2 unit win at $14

Race 4 no.4 Stryke Rock 0.3 unit win at $10

Race 6 no.10 See You Soon 0.25 unit win tote

Race 7 no.5 Dyslexic 0.25 unit win at $10

Race 7 no.12 Nicci’s Gold 0.2 unit win at $21

Race 8 no.4 Stephan 0.2 unit win at $23

Race 8 no.5 Trumbull 0.75 unit win at $3.40

Results: -2 units (5 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail position: 3m rail, good track.

History of track bias:                                

11/08/2018       Rosehill              3m        G4              Getting a few off the fence here. On pace slight advantage

22/09/2018       Rosehill              3m        G4              Pretty fair track this. No disadv to be off pace and wide but could win on pace fence first six races at least

10/11/2018       Rosehill              3m        G4              Pretty fair re lanes. On pace slught adv as always good track racing

1/12/2018         Rosehill              3m        G4         Fence inferior here. 3-6 the place to be. Seemed ok to sit 3wnc even without cover. Too many ran well doing so

2/02/2019         Rosehill              3m        S7              Pretty fair track re lanes and could run on although on pace slight adv

23/03/2019       Rosehill              3m        H9         A few off fence in run here and wider. Not easy to make ground

1/06/2019         Rosehill              3m        G4              Pretty fair track although got wide last 3-4 races. Fence in run seemed adv but not everything.

13/07/2019       Rosehill              3m        h8              Pretty fair track this- Probably sl adv wider again but could win near fence

31/08/2019       Rosehill              3m        H9         ok first race or two but the wider the better as day went on

Assessment: Pretty fair rail position. If anything maybe off rail a bit.

Wind: Light SW. Tailwind in home straight but leaders working into it early in 1100-1500m races.

Race 1

Overview: Lucicello looks very hard to beat in the first and this three-year-old form continues to stack up. I loved her recent trial where she settled better than she ever has and she has the turn of foot to get over the top of these late. Invictus Salute was a bit disappointing fresh but maps to be right there on speed. I just think she prefers wet tracks. And So It Goes races well fresh and is a good place chance here.

Advice: Lucicello to win.

Confidence: 9/10.

Speed map: Invictus Salute and Can’t Find Snippy look the two on pace runners. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Lucicello should start an odds on favourite.

Selections: 4-1-2-7

4. Lucicello ($1.6): 3yo are very good this season and this looks a lovely race for Lucicello. Loved her recent trial where she settled better than any trial in the past. Has a great turn of foot, should be too strong for these.

1. Invictus Salute ($7.2): Couldn’t lead fresh, behind them and stuck on OK. Has solid Sat city form over this distance. Reckon she would prefer a we track though.

2. And So It Goes ($12.9): Fresh in recent trial when second. Has a good fresh record. Disap first up last prep but prior won first up in city in good figures. Just first up off long break, might be a bit fresh?

7. Sophiella ($15.7): Next best.

Other runners:

5. Can't Find Snippy ($39.9), 8. Caccini ($15.7),

 

Race 2

Overview: Two Wrongs Dont has gone up big odds here and he looks to have come back really well. His last 600m when winning last start was 10 lengths above average for that class and I marked him much shorter than $21. Southern Appeal looks as if he will love 1500m and I loved the way he found the line last start. He looks the logical danger although he is only coming off a maiden win. Weather Channel and Acquittal on the next line.

Advice: Two Wrongs Dont great value at $21 each-way.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Elegent Ellen, Normality, Couru, Hit The Snip and Hit The Target all likely to roll forward. Two Wrongs Dont gets back.

Likely market trend: Southern Appeal starts favourite but Two Wrongs Dont should firm in from $21.

Selections: 10-17-11-7

10. Two Wrongs Dont ($6.4): Too short for him fresh and then far too good latest in strong time. His last 600m was 10L above benchmark for the class and the second quickest of the day (only bettered by a horse racing over 900m). Should relish a strong run race here and looks huge overs at $21. His starts are the query and he is likely to be a fair way off them. Drops 4.5kg.

17. Southern Appeal ($4.5): Far from disgraced in town first-up and then closed well to score second up. Out to 1500m looks logical. Only coming off a maiden win but has all the upside in the world.

11. Weather Channel ($7.7): Consistent HWay form. Trip no issue, should run well again.

7. Acquittal ($8.1): Did enough last start for the step up to 1500m third up. Just looks short enough all the same and is generally a horse that is well found.

Other runners:

3. Hit The Target ($17.5), 5. Lose The Snip ($17.5), 6. Normality ($20), 8. Elegent Ellen ($28.3), 9. Mookareena ($35.4), 12. Couro ($28.3), 13. Takissacod ($14), 15. Magpie ($14), 16. Chabrol ($94.4), 18. Metralla ($283).

 

Race 3

Overview: Good race for the stayers. Angel Of Heaven picks herself and she was good last start and should appreciate the step up to 2400m. She has a sense of timing about her. Re Edit had no luck at all last start when she copped a severe check early in the straight which put her out of the race. Desert Path and Humboldt Current are among the other chances.

Advice: Angel Of Heaven on top but under my rated price.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks slow. Artarmon and Humboldt Current (blinkers off so may want cover) roll forward with Angel Of Heaven there somewhere as well.

Likely market trend: Can’t see too many moves in the market.

Selections: 4-3-2-5

4. Angel Of Heaven ($3): Hard to tip against. Nice on pace staying performance in slowly run race last start. 2400m should suit her. Horse to beat but short enough at $2.30.

3. Re Edit ($6.9): Did enough behind Master Of Wine two back and then copped severe check early in straight last start and put out of race.

2. Desert Path ($6.9): 2400m, dry track- that’s his go. Harder than LS and horse he beat narrowly has failed over 2800m since.

5. Humboldt Current ($7.4): Blinkers off, has been a bit disappointing last few but might settle that touch better here.

Other chances:

6. Partnership ($12): At least has 2400m form in Qld. Hard to line up those form lines and may not be strong enough but worth a crack.

8. Duchess Of Lennox ($12): Run wasn’t as bad as it looked last start. Might be looking for 2400,.

Other runners:

1. Artarmon ($30.3), 7. Party Host ($40.4), 9. Curata Princess ($121.2).

 

Race 4

Overview: Happy to speck the two horses here in Stryke Rock and Mangione. I loved of Stryke Rock last time out and both his efforts this time in have been really good (no luck fresh). He is on trial at this trip but comes through the strongest form line for this. The one who is going to love 1800m is Mangione. I love the way he is building this prep and he will be strong late. Falcon Island was too good in the Coonamble Cup but he was expected to win there and 1800m is the query now. Baanone got the job done at the midweeks last start and also has claims.

Advice: Stryke Rock and Mangione to win.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Mercurial Lad likely to roll along. Falcon Island is also prominent.

Likely market trend: Falcon Island will be popular.

Selections: 4-3-2-6

4. Stryke Rock ($7.8): Two really good runs this prep. 1800m the query but has the best form coming in. No luck first-up at Warwick Farm and then good form around Romani Girl latest. Beat Sure Knee comfortably there and she won at Flemington on Cup Day.

3. Mangione ($6.1): Love the way he is building this prep and he will love 1800m and even further in time. Beat Foreign Territory comfortably last prep too (although meets that horse about 7kg worse off from that day v today).

2. Falcon Island ($6.4): Too good in the Coonamble Cup but expected to win there. Form prior was solid in city. 1800m?

6. Baanone ($10.4): Overcame moderate tempo to sore last start and also proven at 1800m. Figures out of last race nothing special but going well.

Other chances:

5. Foreign Territory ($11.8): Bit one paced but will appreciate further at least.

11. Destiny's Hero ($18): Too good at provincials latest but time didn’t really stack up. Form ties in with in form Maid Of Ore this prep. 1800m still a query whether he runs it.

8. Eugene's Pick ($11): Comes out of strongest lead in race. No luck two back, three back slow to recover and no luck four back. 1800m still a query for mine.

Other runners:

1. Mercurial Lad ($25.5), 7. Condor ($29.8), 9. Pressure ($14.7), 10. California Longbow ($17.9).

 

Race 5

Overview: She has been a big firmer in early markets but Maid Of Ore looks very hard to beat here. She has genuine benchmark form for this and is very well in at the weights. She is at her right price now all the same ($3.40-$2.30 since markets opened on Wednesday). Ready For Danger was too good in a high rating race in Brisbane last start and looks the danger, while But I Know and Emanuela look the other main chances.

Advice: Maid Of Ore looks hard to beat.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Not a lot of speed on paper with the big field but expect something to roll along in the rich race for country horses. Maid Of Ore should get across and get a good run on speed though.

Likely market trend: Maid Of Ore starts a popular favourite.

Selections: 1-2-18-17

1. Maid Of Ore ($2.3): In great form and looks terribly hard to beat here. $3.40-$2.30. Does she get back out. Probably right price now considering big field and a couple of other horses going OK. She has the benchmark form and so well weighted. Coming through good rating races too..

2. Ready For Danger ($9.6): Far too good in Bris last start in high rating race. Run hard early and not too soft late. Drawn to get all the favours. Won twice at 2200m.

18. But I Know ($9.6): Improving mare who just rarely runs a bad race. Run was just as good as Emanuela’s for mine two back and then worked wide and held on last start. 2000m looks natural progression.

17. Emanuela ($8.9): Progressive- Won three in a row including a good Highway win latest. 2000m the query but hard to really knock her here. 

Other runners:

3. Charlie Royale ($188), 4. Gentleman Max ($141), 5. Le Cavalier ($70.8), 6. Art Attack ($142), 8. Magic Over The Bay ($34.9), 9. Newtown Bluebag ($56.8), 10. Resort ($70.8), 11. Black Wand ($34.9), 13. Ambitious Prince ($25), 14. Gunga Din ($27.9), 15. Hilltop Hood ($46), 16. Lamma Hilton ($283), 21. Fastquest ($46.5).

 

 

Race 6

Overview: Good race for the two-year-olds. She will probably get too far back from the gate but See You Soon’s late splits on debut were extremely goof and she actually clocked the quickest last 200m of the entire day (for an early season 2YO that’s amazing). I think she has a lot of quality this filly and I’m confident she is the strongest late. Tanker won well on debut in solid figures and his trial since was pleasing. Blaze A Trial and Malkovich have both trialled really well leading in and have both won heats in strong time.

Advice: Leaning to See You Soon.

Confidence: 5/10

Speed map: Speed should be strong with Anders, Malkovich and Diamond Kat all up there.

Likely market trend: Expecting Tanker to be well supported. Hoping See You Soon continues to drift.

Selections: 10-1-7-8

10. See You Soon ($6.6): Wish she drew a gate and it could be tough from out there but confident she is a very good filly. Sectionals on debut were very, very good. QL200 of the entire day and she will appreciate more pressure here.

1. Tanker ($3.6): Nice debut win, not sure what he beat but sectionals were solid enough. Trial since was very pleasing.

7. Blaze A Trail ($7.5): Loved the turn of foot he showed in most recent trial. Time was 6L slower than Malkovich on the day but he ran time in trial prior so not reading too much into it.

8. Malkovich ($7.5): Clocked some super splits when winning latest trial in a canter. Trial time was a mammoth 1.87s quicker than Blaze A Trail on the day- L600 also 6L quicker.

Other runners:

3. Gravina ($24.2), 4. Itzhot ($36.8), 5. Anders ($73.6), 6. Murungal ($147.3), 9. Sidearm ($49.1), 11. Dame Giselle ($14.5), 12. Close To Me ($24.2), 13. Diamond Kat ($147.3), 14. Cellsabeel ($73.6), 15. Vucetich ($24.2).

 

 

Race 7

Overview: Extremely open race. Happy to speck a couple at odds in the shape of Dyslexic and Nicci’s Gold but this is really up in the air. Dyslexic was wide without cover in a stronger race in Melbourne last start but her form prior to that in Sydney is good for a race like this. Nicci’s Gold did enough first-up and she has a great second up record. She just needs some pace in the race (tempo doesn’t look overly strong). Reelem In Ruby, Multaja, Miss Fabulass, Madam Rouge and Luvaluva are all hopes in a very competitive race.

Advice: Specking Dyslexic and Nicci’s Gold.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Stablemates Vinicunca and Ready To Prophet roll forward and I’m guessing Dyslexic does as well. Speed looks muddling.

Likely market trend: Reelem In Ruby will be popular.

Selections: 5-12-10-6

5. Dyslexic ($9.3): Wide no cover in Melbourne and too far. Run behind Champagne Cuddles and Mizzy prior was great and should have won three back. Just hope they roll forward here and put her in the race.

12. Nicci's Gold ($13.1): Super through the line in a slowly run race fresh. Extra trip, Rosehill + great second up record (4 of 6 career wins second up) all positives. Gate is the negative and the muddling tempo up front.

10. Reelem In Ruby ($4.7): Just missed last start and step out to 1400m looks as if it will suit here. Super consistent, still on the up.

6. Multaja ($8.3): Did enough last start off the slow tempo. Should roll along a touch more here. 1400m still a small query.

Other chances:

7. Madam Rouge (8.7): Beat Reelem In Ruby last start but got the gun run and 1400m looks a slight risk for mine.

4. Luvaluva ($16): Ran on well fresh but reckon she wants further.Other chances:

Other runners:

1. Nicoletta ($40), 2. El Dorado Dreaming ($16), 3. Pretty In Pink ($22.8), 8. Ready To Prophet ($176), 9. Moss Trip ($19), 13. Vinicunca ($17.7).

 

Race 8

Overview: Hard to go past Trumbull and the sectionals he produced last start were something else. He was the only horse on the day at Warwick Farm to break 32 seconds for his last 600m and 11 seconds for his last 200m. The query is he is developing a habit of missing the jump and that could cost him. Tony’s Reward has had a great prep and this looks another winnable race for him. He was given a 10/10 steer last start but goes close again. Stephan can improve sharply here at good odds, while Inquiry, Echo Jet and Roosevelt are all capable.

Advice: Trumbull to win.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even to moderate. Americana Magic and Inquiry roll forward early. Trumbull’s position all depends how he jumps.Tony’s Reward should be midfield.

Likely market trend: Expecting Trumbull and Tony’s Reward to dominate betting here, particularly Trumbull.

Selections: 5-9-4-3

5. Trumbull ($3): Has a bit of a habit of missing the jump which is the query but the horse to beat on form. Second to broken Arrows two back and that horse has bolted in since. The only horse to break 32s L600 last start and 11s last 200m at WF when he missed start 2L and then flashed to just miss late. Outstanding run. Should be hard to beat. Clark on. Just needs to jump with them.

9. Tony's Reward ($5.3): Going really well this prep. Race set up for him first up but good win second up. Stays at 1100m for third run in row this prep?

4. Stephan ($16.1): Comes through same race as Trumbull. Slow out (as always) but copped some interference and got a long way back. Can hunt up and be closer from gate here. Has a good sprint on him.

3. Echo Jet ($11.4): Blinkers off, two soft trials. Won well first-up and then held off Reelem In Ruby. Must be considered.

Other chances:

6. Inquiry ($10.6): Led and too good at Tamworth first-up and figures were really strong out of the race. Form out of the race hasn’t been great but must be respected.

8. Roosevelt ($8.4): Honest, just always goes around too short. Just missed LS but race set up for and this looks stronger for mine.

Other runners:

1. Burradoo ($81.7), 2. Americana Magic ($23), 7. Paquirri ($40.9), 10. Sanctioned ($40.914. Cappanello ($163.3).

 

Race 9

Overview: Tough race to finish the day. Final Award has been knocking on the door and he gets another chance to win a Saturday metro race here. Bergen was 1200m up to 1500m last start on a strong speed and was entitled to tire, while Pandano is flying in weaker grade and gets some considerable weight relief. High Shine, Cuban Royale, Matowi and Sausedge also have claims.

Advice: Not much between Final Award and Bergen but plenty of hopes here.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Speed should be genuine enough with Silent Explorer and King Tomlola rolling forward from out wide and Pandano and Cuban Royale holding a spot.

Likely market trend: Punters could come for several runners here.

Selections: 4-7-13-9

4. Final Award ($5.7): Knocking on the door. Set up for him last start but go past Bergen late and beat Sausedge easily enough there.

7. Bergen ($5.7): Tough on speed second up. Was 1200 to 1500m there, back to 1400m. Only runs well.

13. Pandano ($7): Won well his past two provincial grade and drops 4.5kg in weight. Brings that other form line.

9. High Shine ($11.8): Too fresh first-up and ran her race in parade ring and then was keen. Better for that. Tickover trial since.

Other chances:

5. Cuban Royale ($13.7): Underrated- Not sure comes through next form line but last run was strong and 1400m suits. Maps well again.

6. Matowi ($13.7): Often runs a race fresh. Had a good prep last time in and no reason he can’t sprint well here with James Doyle aboard.

12. Sausedge ($9.2): Well backed last start and was only fair. Respecting SP and big win in country prior.

Other runners:

2. King Tomlola ($33.9), 3. Mapmaker ($42.4), 8. Muswellbrook ($23.9), 10. Quadriga ($27.9), 11. Silent Explorer ($42.4), 14. Shadow Flight ($169.6), 15. My Maher ($169.6).

 



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