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Brad Davidson preview Randwick October 9

 Oct 8 2019

Meeting: Randwick Kensington

Best play

Race 5 no.5 King Hewitt 

I reckon King Hewitt is a bet here. He was flat second up but he has trialled well since and if he runs up to the first-up effort where he beat home subsequent Saturday city winner Cuba in solid figures, he will go close.

Next best play

Race 6 no.6 Hooray Henry 

Race with a bit of depth but I like the look of Hooray Henry and the figures he clocked last start were impressive. His overall time was .2s quicker than the benchmark 70 on the day despite his race being run 10 lengths slower to the 600m. He maps well and looks on the up.

Hardest to beat

Race 8 no.2 Coterie $4.20-$3.10 today so playing tote? Hope he gets back out a touch?

I think the $3.90 looks an OK gamble on Coterie and he has the best form in this race by a long way. Fourth to Fiesta fresh last prep and then he didn’t finish far off Star Of The Seas later that prep. He trialled better than True Detective coming in and he just needs to find some cover from the gate to go close.

 

Expected drifters/risks at current price:

Race 5 no.9 Camp Rifle (current price $3, rated $5.90): Time didn’t stack up last start! Risking.

Race 8 no.12 Lanigera (current price $5, rated $13): Always starts shorter than he should IMO.

Race 8 no.6 Versetto (current price $7.50, rated $28): All favours last start and well held. This harder.

 

Betting strategy

I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

 

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

 

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (62 units)

Race 5 no.5 King Hewitt 15 unit win at $6.50

Race 6 No.6 Hooray Henry 15 unit win at $5

Race 7 no.7 Allison Of Tuffy 7 unit win at $10

Race 8 no.2 Coterie 15 unit win (think we get better at race time so NSW TAB fixed price at jump time will be recorded here)

10 unit main quaddie (starts r5, 9.25%):  1st leg: 5,3,8. 2nd leg: 6,11,5,8,3,7. 3rd leg: 7,10,12. 4th leg: 2,3.

Results: +33.4 units (4204 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (1.75 unit)

Race 5 no.5 King Hewitt 0.5 unit win at $6.50

Race 6 no.6 Hooray Henry 0.5 unit win at $5

Race 7 no.7 Allison Of Tuffy 0.25 unit win at $10

Race 8 no.2 Coterie 0.5 unit win (think we get better at race time so NSW TAB fixed price at jump time will be recorded here)

Results: +14.75 units (11.8% POT, 124.8 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Rail position: 3m.

History of track bias:                  

Date      Track     Rail       Conditions         Bias                                 

11/06/2018       Kens      3m        s6 but G4           Hard to make ground- Could win four off or on rail just hard to make ground                                

17/10/2018       Kens      3m        S5-6      Most winners on pace but tempo related early- Pretty fair this track- wider later on                              

21/12/2018       Kens      3m        S5          Played fair re lanes but on pace here. Only one winner further back than second on settling                            

6/02/2019         Kens      3m        G4         Very fair track this. Could win from anywhere                                  

3/04/2019         Kens      3m        S6          Fair track                                        

10/06/2019       Kens      3m        S6-5      Pretty fair track although fence a bit inferior more distinct later in day. Didn't want to be too far off them                                                     

Assessment: Fair track predicted.

Wind: Fresh southerly predicted. Somewhat behind them in sprint trips and into straight. Could help on pace a touch?

 

Race 1

Overview: Hard to go past Starla although I thought we would have got a better price. We may do come jump time. Liked her trial and she had cardiac arrythmia last start so forgive that. Should be midfield and hard to hold out. Willowheart has trialled up well although beat little in average time. Betting?

Advice: Starla on top but under my rated price. May drift and become a bet though at $2.10 plus providing the stablemate Willowheart isn’t off the map and therefore causing Starla to drift.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Respectful, Willowheart and Giselle Anne look the three on pace runners. Speed looks moderate to even. Starla should be midfield.

Likely market trend: Hoping Starla gets out a touch due to beaten margin LS?

Selections: 1-7-6-3

1.Starla ($1.95): Nice trial. Hopefully settle closer good draw? Cardiac arrythmia LS, well backed fresh. Second to Villami earlier career.

7. Willowheart ($7.05): Won recent trial Rhill 894m but time was slow as was L600. Second horse in trial beaten 10L other trial and third horse in trial well held in mdn since. Still looks a bit green with action.

6. Respectful ($12.55): led and won first trial over 740m. Then led over 1040m and pushed along and just fair late. Probably leads here, last 200m? Trial times OK.

3. Giselle Anne ($15.2): Got a bit further back LS but still a bit disapp. Hasn’t really gone on this prep. Good track is a plus.

Other runners:

2. Diva Bella ($34.15), 4. Irish Angel ($12.55), 5. Liara ($15.2), 8. Vinaigrette ($51.25), 9. Nishka ($153.75).

 

 

 

Race 2

Overview: Looks a race in two potentially three. I will lean the way of Faretti and he started right in betting at his only start in Group company when he didn’t handle the wet track. Trials have been good. Ziedrich has trialled up really well since the first-up defeat on wet ground and the tongue tie goes on here after making an abnormal respiratory noise last start. Down To Earth can savage the line late and didn’t have a lot of luck last start.

 

Advice: Not much between Faretti and Ziedrich on paper and 8 looks the only danger to them.

Confidence: 5/10 (not sure which way to go 4 or 7?)

Speed map: Ziedrich and Faretti look the two on speed runners. Speed should be even.

Likely market trend: Not sure which way they will go with the two favs.

Selections: 4-7-8-1

4. Faretti ($2.3): Started $4.80 Silver Slipper where too wet. Won three trials leading in including latest under a hold Rwick 1045. Times OK. Expensive yearling.

7. Ziedrich ($3.7): Tongue tie 1st time. Well backed first-up and didn’t handle wet track. Trial since was super. Straight to front and won by 8L running 54.06 quickest heat of morning. Abnormal resp noise pulling up LS? Bit keen? Raced fiercely LS.

8. Down To Earth ($11.5): 11.38 QL200 of the day LS when held up off slow tempo and finding the line well. Further the query but should be strong again late.

1. Axe ($13): Two soft trials- Latest led and probably could have won. Trial time was 1.7s slower than Ziedrich’s on same day though, First trial OK?

Other runners:

2. Boblee ($66.35), 3. Dark Lesson ($39.8), 5. Mopar ($99.55), 6. Warp Speed ($24.65), 9. Bondi Blue ($24.65).

 

Race 3

Overview: Leningrad is improving and he should get a pretty good run on speed here. Short enough all the same and he may drift. Fastnet Cyclone had no luck last start and is going better than it looks on paper. Just the map is the issue but Nash riding is a positive. Bring The Magic can improve at odds here, while Rancho Notorious should run well again. 

Advice: Leaning to Leningrad due to the map but Fastnet Cyclone could get out to good odds.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Leningrad should lead. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: No real opinion on the market here.

Selections: 1-5-8-2

1.Leningrad ($2.50): Solid effort up on speed to beat all bar Miss Eintstein LS. Up on speed again and fitter. Still improving.

5. Fastnet Cyclone ($8): No luck at all last start and run prior was good off slow tempo. 3 back was good too. Nash goes on. 1900 backt o 1550? Hopefully gets a run in other race but chance here, Going well.

8. Bring The Magic ($8): Blinkers off. Back and no impact fresh and then back and closed off OK considering slow tempo latest.

2. Rancho Notorious ($4.60): Got job done at odds LS. Fair B70 but figures slightly better Leningrad race same day. 1550M now for 1dt time.. Bowman on.

Other runners:

6. We Could Be Heroes ($48), 7. Brilliant Mind ($9).

Race 4

Overview: Tough race. He got it soft on speed last start but I like the way Lewis fought back and went through the line. He is bred to enjoy this trip and gets in light and is up on trip. Johnny Vinko had the race run to suit last start but should appreciate the extra trip, while Maid Of Ore, Duchess Of Lennox (just looks too short), Zourhea, Devil’s Lair and Mocambo all have claims.

Advice: Many chances!

Confidence: 3/10.

Speed map: Lewis should lead up in trip with Maid Of Ore handy. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: No opinion.

Selections: 11-1-4-3

11. Lewis ($7.50): Good win latest when off the canvass to score but entitled to due to soft lead. Mum won 2400m so up to 1800m should be a plus. Sits on speed. 3l slower Almeheri race on day LS but due to race shape.

1. Johnny Vinko ($5): Tempo against first up and then tempo on second up and over the top. Entitled to finish off but third up 1800m looks logicial progression.

4. Maid Of Ore ($6.50): Tough win two back on speed when rest placings where swoopers and then held up, clear and held off Destiny’s Hero in solid fashion. First time 1800m, can be touch keen if bussled early> Wide gate? 59.5kg.

5. Duchess Of Lennox ($4.5): Should have won here fresh and then I doubt she got around Canterbury latest. Extra trip suits, JMAC sticks.

Other chances:

2. Devil's Lair ($19): Blinkers off, Been slow out last couple of starts. Got home well late LS but entitled too way race was run. Extra trip helps but will likely be near last with slow starts? 2.5kg swing on JVinko at weights.

10. Mocambo ($9): OK strong race fresh then tempo against but well backed and closed well latest. Now up to 1800m first time. Races like a horse wants ground. Down 6kg in weight. Beat Colada there who had Lewis easily covered prior?

Other runners:

7. Californiafirebird ($29), 8. Genoveffa ($29), 9. Bullet Fly ($14).

 

Race 5

Overview: I reckon King Hewitt is a bet here. He was flat second up but he has trialled well since and if he runs up to the first-up effort where he beat home subsequent Saturday city winner Cuba in solid figures, he will go close. McCormack was good in a strong rating race last time and won third up at this distance last prep (albeit on a wet track). Live The Moment doesn’t come through the strongest race but should sit closer. I’m against Camp Rifle. He looks too short in a race that was slower than the maiden on day despite going quicker early and was really set up for him to close off.

Advice: King Hewitt to win at $7.50.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Julian Rock and Kaecilius look the two up there. Speed looks moderate to even. King Hewitt should be midfield.

Likely market trend: Expecting King Hewitt to firm. Camp Rifle should drift but he will be popular all the same.

Selections: 5-3-8-4

5. King Hewitt ($5.4): Disapp last start but maybe flate second up. Loved the run prior first up when back and closing well to defeat subs winner Cuba. Two soft trials since.

3. McCormack ($7.05): Tongue tie 1st time. OK fresh in weak race (10 subs st 4 pl) and then hit line well second up in strong rating race. 1400m looks progression. Won third up last prep this distance on a heavy track. Draws to be midfield.

8. Live The Moment ($9.05): Good last couple and held up LS too until about 225m when worked home. Not strongest race comes through (form out of race two back not great either) but can park closer and run well. SP $20 LS?

4. Julian Rock ($9.05): Went quick first0up but disapp. I wonder whether he is a wet tracker. Was confidently backed fresh though? Trialled well prior but again wet track. Trainer said last prep good wet tracker?

Against:

9. Camp Rifle ($5.9): Have to be against him here. Got the job done LS but race set up perfectly with speed on and slow L600. Race was .1s slower than the maiden despite going out 3L quicker. Gate? Reckon he starts unders. Month between runs soft trial. $3 looks unders.

Other runners:

1. Iggy The Moocher ($21.3), 2. Cisco Bay ($12.8), 6. Solider Of Love ($32.25), 7. Kaecilius ($10.55), 10. Costas ($32.25).

 

Race 6

Overview: Race with a bit of depth but I like the look of Hooray Henry and the figures he clocked last start were impressive. His overall time was .2s quicker than the benchmark 70 on the day despite his race being run 10 lengths slower to the 600m. He maps well and looks on the up. The slow tempo beat Blesk last start and the 1400m looks ideal now. He looks the danger at odds. Bigboyroy and Saint Ambrose run well, while Avon River and Iskander also have claims.

Advice: Hooray Henry to win. Can speck Blesk if he drifts too.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Up in the air a touch. Zell and Blesk roll forward. Speed may depend on what Vienna Rain and Rock Amore do from out wide?

Likely market trend: Expecting Hooray Henry to start favourite.

Selections: 6-11-5-8

6. Hooray Henry ($3.80): Got back a long way and closed off well two back behind smart enough horse. Then sat closer far too good in good time latest. Won well. .2s quicker than B70 on day despite race run 10L slower to 600m! Good time! 2nd horse won since.

11. Blesk ($6.50): Just run out of time last start off the slow tempo. Good win prior, 1400m a plus. 2nd QL200 of the day last start.

5. Bigboyroy ($7.50): Solid return fresh in race which was run .7s slower Benchmark race on day. 1400m first time. Found the line well enough.

8. Saint Ambrose ($7.50): Too good first-up. Set up for him to finish off from the back but nice win all the same. Wide and end of prep only run last prep at 1400m. Looks a plus.

Other chances:

3. Avon River ($9.50): OK from back in Up And Coming and then too wet latest. 1400m first time, won at 1300m. Nash on.

7. Iskander ($14): Good from back two back when second to subs Sat winner and then too wet latest + slow to recover Can boune back. Avdulla sticks with over Bigboyroy?

Other runners:

2. Surreal Step ($27), 4. All Over Magic ($17), 9. Vienna Rain ($22).

 

 

Race 7

Overview: She is too short for mine at even money but it’s hard to tip against Regimental Band and she has upside. Form around Libertini reads well last pep and the fresh win was solid. Alison Of Tuffy was really brave on speed last start in a race set up for the swoopers and she could be the bet here if she gets out a touch in betting. Sophiella and Super Oasis also has claims.

Advice: Alison Of Tufffy the bet for mine.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Eve’s Miss and Alison Of Tuffy look the likely leaders, while Segalas should roll forward. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: No opinion.

Selections: 7-10-12-5

7. Alison Of Tuffy ($9): Beat Sophiella fair and square on S7 and then sat just off very strong speed and best of on pacers latest when never shirked task. Meets Sophiella 2kg better off for beating her two back.

10. Regimental Band ($2.75): Chased home Libertini last prep (QL200 than Libertini) and then returned with a nice first-up win (2L quicker than the mdn on the day but that was tempo related). Can make this step.

12. Super Oasis ($7.55): Wide and overracing latest when disappointing. Good first-up win although that was mich easier than this. Still does a lot wrong but has talent.

5. Sophiella ($10.8): Chased home Libertini last prep (QL200 than Libertini) and then returned with a nice first-up win (2L quicker than the mdn on the day but that was tempo related). Can make this step.

Other runners:

1. Autumn ($11.55), 3. Gala Moshea ($66.05), 4. Segalas ($12.45), 6. Eve's Miss ($82.6), 9. Commute ($27.25), 11. Appian Way ($20.45),

 

 

Race 8

Overview: I think the $3.90 looks an OK gamble on Coterie and he has the best form in this race by a long way. Fourth to Fiesta fresh last prep and then he didn’t finish far off Star Of The Seas later that prep. He trialled better than True Detective coming in and he just needs to find some cover from the gate to go close. Trumbull was a bit disappointing fresh but his form last prep reads well. He can improve sharply. Bentley Magic looks a big price here. He comes through a quick race and he beat Broken Arrows fair and square earlier this year. Broken Arrows had no luck last prep and also has claims.

Advice: Coterie to win. Include Bentley Magic is quaddies.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks strong with Lanigera, Rambler Rebel, Wanna Get A What, Il Bandito and Versetto all showing speed.

Likely market trend: Coterie should star favourite. Monitor market on Trumbull.

Selections: 2-3-8-9

2. Coterie ($3.30): Blinkers off again. Two nice trials, latest went to line with True Detective under less pressure. Fresh form solid. Little bit keen latest trial. 4th to Fiesta first up last prep.

3. Trumbull ($7.05): Disapp fresh, Maybe 900m a touch sharp. Was going well last prep and started fav first-up.

9. Broken Arrows ($7.1): Wide no cover, then a bit stiff and then never got out latest. McEvOY on. Racing well.

5. Under The Thumb ($15.3): 

Against:

12. Lanigera ($13.8): Always takes up a chunk of the market but yet to really warrant it. Has company up front and does too much wrong.

6. Versetto ($27.85): Box seated and had every chance LS. Race he won two back form just fair out. Bowman on.

Other runners:

1.Trust Me ($34.85), 7. Hay Bale ($116.05), 10. Rambler Rebel ($15.3), 11. Wanna Get A What ($34.8), 13. Il Bandito ($69.65).

 

Notes for long game and normal strategy players:

Place betting will be heavily reduced in the strategies going forward. On my holidays I was able to run some results on my strategies and since April 20, the long game has been running at -8.4 units (our 15 unit profit held up by a 24 unit profit from win bets). My stats from an independent tips tracker since 2017 also show a loss on place bets, so I'm listening to the stats.

Stakes will be increased for both strategies: My average bet size since April 20 for the long game strategy has been 0.4 units and this, on reflection, is too low. I will look to increase the average bet size over the coming months while still being conservative enough to protect our bank.

 

Long game strategy: We will have our first increase of our long game strategy bank on October 20 (six months after we began this service). More details on how this will work will be released next week. If you have always thought about following the long game strategy, October 20 is a great time to join us!

Consistent preview times: Previews will be released at 7pm on Tuesday and Thursday nights for Wednesday and Saturday racing. Updated previews will be around 8.30am on race morning on Wednesdays and Saturdays.

Odds: You'll notice odds for horses in the preview are $4.05 etc this week. I will work to resolve this in coming weeks but I am dragging them straight across from Microsoft excel now hence the difference. I will find a way to round them soon.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick October 9

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