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Brad Davidson preview Randwick October 5

 Oct 5 2019

Randwick

***Value and roughie prices below were locked in Thursday and are prior to scratchings and deductions***

Value

Race 9 no.9 River Bird $10 (rated $8, confidence 6/10)

Loved the fresh run and she rattled home from the back- Can settle closer here and meets Embracer 3kg better off as well. Only niggle I can find is whether she prefers wet ground but has had excuses on dry ground in past

Roughie

Race 8 no.4 Monsieur Sisu $23 and $6 (mainly place play, rated $16, confidence 5/10)

Seems overs at $23. Type of horse that always runs a cheeky race fresh- Run first up two preps back enormous when did a power of work on speed and stuck on. Maps well here and trialled well leading in.

 

Normal strategy

Randwick (75 units)

Race 8 no.4 Monsieur Sisu 3 unit win at $23 and 7 unit place at $6

Race 9 no.9 River Bird 15 unit win at $10 and 20 unit place at $3.20

Race 9 no.2 Sir Bacchus 10 unit place at $11

Race 9 no.4 Laburnum 5 unit win at $15

5 unit early quaddie (41.66%, starts r2): 1st leg: 1. 2nd leg: 1.9,5,4,2,3. 3rd leg: 5,1. 4th leg: 8.

10 unit main quaddie (6.25%, starts r6): 1st leg: 12,4,8,1. 2nd leg: 9,5. 3rd leg: 4,5,6,8. 4th leg: 9,3,12,4,2.

Results: -1268.1 units (-14.1%POT, 8981 units outlayed)

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Long game strategy

Randwick (1.9 units)

Race 8 no.4 Monsieur Sisu 0.1 unit win at $23 and 0.25 unit place at $6

Race 9 no.9 River Bird 0.5 unit win at $10 and 0.75 unit place at $3.20

Race 9 no.2 Sir Bacchus 0.2 unit place at $11

Race 9 n0.4 Laburnum 0.1 unit win at $15

Results: -18.5 units (-15.1%POT, 122.8 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 

9/06/2018         Rwick    3m        H9         Pretty fair track this. Won from most places.

29/09/2018       Rwick    3m        G4         Few off fence best ground here suiting run on. Fence not best place but not massively inferior

6/11/2018         Rwick    3m        g3          Fair track this

26/12/2018       Rwick    3m        S5          2-6 off look best ground- didn't want to be hard fence

16/02/2019       Rwick    3m        G4         I reckon first few lanes (partic hard fence) were off. Wider the better from 3-4 out. Could run on and win from front.

13/04/2019       Rwick    3m        G4 (but soft)              Swooping off fence here, wider the better really

8/06/2019         Rwick    3m        H8         Pretty fair track/. Definitely could run on. fence was OK but maybe sl inferior

5/10/2019         Rwick    3m        S6          Pretty fair, reckon first three lanes first half and then evened out late

21/12/2019       Rwick    3m        G4         Fence in run small adv, pretty fair. Wind changed head wind str early to tail wind str late- strong both occ

Assessment:  first few lanes advantage early last two meetings but should be pretty fair.

R1

Overview: Away Game is hard to beat off the Magic Millions win. It wasn’t the strongest edition of the race we’ve seen but she showed a good turn of foot there and just has to reproduce that to be the horse to beat again. September Run is the one at odds that interests me. She trialled well leading in and she was wide no cover in her only run and lost contact with the field on the turn but her last 200m was strong. Philizzy was a strong winner on debut and can win again, while Centimental and In Flanders aren’t hopeless either.

Advice: Away Game the horse to beat but September Run looks the value.

Speed map: No designated leader here and speed map up in the air a touch although Philizzy will be ridden forward.

Likely market trend: Expect Away Game to be popular.

Selections: 1-5-2-4

1.Away Game ($2.80): MM winner- Overall time was just OK and looked a weak year Magic Millions wise for mine. Calaway Gal win prior wasn’t a strong time on day either. Same ov time as MM maiden on day.

5.September Run ($7.40): Liked the trial leading in- Complete forgive run fresh when jmped well, got back and wide, lost contact on turn and then actually clocked 2nd QL200 of the race. Cheeky chance.

2.Philizzy ($3.80): Good win on debut when speed was solid and closed off to score- 3rd horse Remorseless beaten 4L two runs prior- 2nd horse only raced once.

4.Centimental ($6.80): Good effort on debut to just miss to Sancy- Third horse well beaten w

 

Other runners:

3. In Flanders ($10.3).

R2

Overview: Hard to tip against the Breeders’ Plate winner Global Quest and he was strong to the line in that race and has trialled well leading into this campaign. Return With Honour didn’t handle the wet track last start and he should roll to the front and prove hard to catch. Prague won well on debut but was on the best part of the track there at Canterbury. He gets the blinkers on here. Gravina next best.

Advice: Global Quest to win.

Speed map: Return With Honour should lead with Nitrous rolling forward.

Likely market trend: Expect Global Quest to be popular.

Selections: 1-3-5-4

1.Global Quest ($2.40): Won Breeders Plate only syart- 2L quicker than the Gimcrack on the day (hasn’t been a great form race the Gimcrack). 2nd horse Postcode out of that race beaten next start but did beat home Gravina

3.Return With Honour ($6.10):- Solid win debut then didn’t handle wet track latest it seems- Should roll to front and give them something to chase.

5.Prague ($6.10): Was on right part of track debut (fence in run) but still nice win. Blinkers 1st time, Tom Marquand on.

4.Gravina ($8):- Got back and closed off well debut then outclassed in Golden Gift (which was much stronger than this race though). Nice trial leading in where hit line well.

Other runners:

2. Nitrous ($10), 6. Gorshin ($40.4).

R3

Overview: Competitive Highway. Greenspan copped a check at a crucial stage last start but found the line well all the same and he has been pretty consistent in these Highways of late. Mo’s Glory makes his own luck on speed and he had on pace favours last start but held on to score at Scone. Quick Spin can run a cheeky race at odds here. I liked the recent trial and he was ridden upside down last start. Hopes to Electrified, Harbouring and Sawtell as well.

Advice: Greenspan the horse to beat but Quick Spin not hopeless at odds.

Speed map: Zaromatic and Mo’s Glory look the two most prominent. Speed in Highway races is normally genuine.

Likely market trend: No comment.

Selections: 1-9-5-4

1.Greenspan ($4.20): Solid effort last start when held up in Highway and flashed late and just didn’t have momentum up. Won Highway well prior- Gap between runs and up to 1500m but looks ok.

9.Mo’s Glory ($6.50): Got on pace favours in slow run race LS but doing a good job in country grade of late and deserves crac in Highway

5.Quick Spin ($23.30): Not hopeless at odds- Liked the recent trial and went forward and last start and went too quickly on pace. Expecting quieter ride here and can run on

4.Electrified ($10.20): Second up is fitness there just yet? Did enough fresh though for mine and extra trip looks OK if fit enough

Other runners:

2. Sawtell ($7.6), 3. Harbouring ($8.2), 6. Smiling Manolito ($46.68. Alot To Hoffa ($20.7),  Zaromatic ($23.3), 12. Delayed Response ($10.2).

R4

Overview: The map doesn’t look great but Romani Girl has the best form leading into this and she was really good when third in the Magic Millions fillies and mares race last start. She won over this track and distance late last year and just gives them a start and that’s the concern. Insensata has been running on solidly this prep and she had no luck in Sydney two back. The 1500m looks about right at this stage of the prep. Turnberry and Night Of Power also have claims.

Advice: Romani Girl to win.

Speed Map: Turnberry and Night Of Power look the two leaders- Speed looks moderate to even.

Likely market trend: Romani Girl should star a clear fav.

Selections: 5-6-1-8

5.Romani Girl ($3.10): Has the best form for this- Good third MM fillies and mares race LS and chased hard prior in race where zipped home good figures. Tempo the query? Runs on late- Won this t/d late last year

6.Insensata ($8.90):  Been going OK this prep and runs last start at Flemington was solid in race dominated by first few around bend- No luck in Sydney prior- 1500m looks about right.

1.Turnberry ($5.20): Didn’t run out 2000m last start= Better than that- Rolls forward and form prior was soinf around these trips.

8.Night Of Power ($4.40): Drops a stack in weight but win was only fair LS? Soft lead, right park of track and a fair bit slower other race over same distance on night. Did rain during meeting by memory though a bit (nothing dramatic)

Other runners:

2. Love Shack Baby ($22.5), 3. Goldstream ($30), 4. Mongolian Wolf ($30 7. Onslaught ($45).

R5

Overview: She’s pretty short in betting but Subpoenaed also looked as if she would be a good autumn horse back in the spring and her trials leading in have been good. Rari makes his own luck on speed and the race he finished second in last start has produced four subsequent winners. Twentyfour Carat was wide no cover on a strong speed last start and forgive that effort, while My Benalla has a bit of X-factor and may shape up here.

Advice: Subpoenaed to win.

Speed map: Echo Gem, Beaufort Park and Rari should all be up there. Speed looks genuine enough.

Likely market trend: Expect Subpoenaed to start short.

8.Subpoenaed- Two soft trials coming in- Came a fair way last prep and then was wide last two runs before a break- Always shaped as an autumn horse and looks to have come back well

7.Rari- Going really well- makes own luck up on speed- This is harder than what he has been contesting but 4 winners out of race he comes through last start.

2. Echo Gem: Should lead and give a kick but place hope.

1. Dio D’oro ($13.40): Better wet tracker but next best.

Other runners:

4. Beaufort Park ($27.1), 9. Fasano ($20.3).

R6

Overview: She’s Ideel looks well placed with the light weight and her last start win over 1550m at Canterbury was strong on the clock against the other 1550m race on the night. She gets in with just 52kg and should handle the distance rise. Birth Of Venus relished the strong speed last start and seems to get through wet or dry. Guise pulled up lame last start and can bounce back, while Raqeeq didn’t handle the wet track last start and can run on late at odds.

Advice: She’s Ideel to win. Raqeeq to place.

Speed map: Dylan’s Romance likes to roll to the lead and should set a genuine speed.

Likely market trend: She’s Ideel should be popular.

Selections: 12-4-8-1

12.She’s Ideel ($3.50): Just looks really well weighted here off a dominant win at Canterbury in strong figures- Easily quicker other 1550m race won on the night and clocked QL200 of race up on speed. 52kg the key- Query is whether she is better on wet ground v her rivals but looks as if extra trip will suit.

4. Costello ($12.20):-Caught the eye fresh and has a tremendous second up record- Just 1500m to 2000m the query?

8.Birth Of Venus ($5.70): relished the strong tempo LS to score well. That was wet ground but ran well dry ground prior. Has to be in the mix again.

1.Guiise ($9.80): Has the big weight but pulled up lame LS and stuck on well prior behind Vadiyann- Consider off the forgive LS- Has weight though.

Other runners:

2. Dark Pearl ($12.2), 3. All Too Soon ($16.3), 5. Dylan's Romance ($49.4), 6. Cinquedea ($12.2), 9. Cisco Bay ($13.9), 10. Savvy Ken ($33), 12. She's Ideel ($3.5).

R7

Overview: Interesting edition of the Expressway. I’ll lean the way of Standout despite the fact he isn’t well off at weight for age. He came a long way last prep and he can reel off a strong last 600m. It’s hard to knock Alizee. I do think she is generally overplayed in the market but she is really good fresh and is a popular horse. Kolding is the best horse in the race but will 1200m be a touch sharp?

Advice: Leaning to Standout.

Speed map: Irithea, Standout, Vegadaze and White Moss should all be prominent. Speed looks solid.

Likely market trend: Alizee is very popular with punters. Standout  will have admirers.

Selections: 9-5-1-4

9.Standout ($5.20): Came a long way last prep when defeating Cosmic Force and then runner up to that horse who went down south and was solid enough in strong Coolmore. Trialled well and can reel off a big last 600m. 5.50 probably about right. Stable get them ready fresh and that 3yo form has stacked up time and again.

5.Alizee ($2.70):  Just thought she was short enough at $2.20. Trialled well and very good fresh mare although win first-up last prep was just fair figures wise and she didn’t quite go on with it that prep. Can win for sure having said that!

1.Kolding ($6.10): Best horse in the race but is 1200m a tad shtarp? Obviously has bigger fish to fry later on but trials have been OK and have to respect on class alone.

4.Vegadaze ($11.10): Liked his trials leading in- Too bad to be true last start and only had the one run that prep. May have not come up? CStill needs to prove he is at this level though.

Other runners:

2. Glenall ($15.5). 6. White Moss ($12.4), 7. Irithea ($31.4).

R8

Overview: Happy to make a case for Monsieur Sisu. He is probably a better place hope but he maps well here and his run first-up two back was a cracker when he went far too hard in front. His recent trials have been pleasing. Tony’s Reward gets the blinkers on and he has the best form leading in. He just has to run out the 1400m. Destiny’s Own and Press Box look next best.

Advice: Tony’s Reward the horse to beat but Monsieur SIsu the value.

Speed map: Assault’n;bathory, Manhattan Mist and Esteem Spirit all roll forward. Speed should be genuine.

Likely market trend: Should be support for several horses.

Selections: 4-5-6-8

4.Monsieur Sisu ($13.90):  Seems a big price at $26. Type of horse that always runs a cheeky race fresh- Run first up two preps back enormous when did a power of work on speed and stuck on. Maps well here and trialled well leading in.

5.Tony’s Reward ($3.80):- Blinkers on- Just missed last start in solid rating race. Up to 1400m perhaps the small ? but has the right form lines and does look te horse to beat.

6.Destiny’s Own ($7.50): Closed off OK in recent tria and was runner up to Napoleon Solo a few starts back. A few chances but gets back and runs on.

8. Assault’n’bathory ($11.90): Should find the front and give them something to catch.

Other runners:

1. Royal Tudor ($11.9), 2. Manhattan Mist ($10.4), 3. Ronstar ($9.3), 7. Esteem Spirit ($56.5), 9. Press Box ($17), 10. Levee Ban ($28.2), 13. Distinctive Look ($21.2).

R9

Overview: Very good benchmark race to finish the day. River Bird looks generously priced at $10 and she was very good from the back first-up. She can settle closer here and the only concern is whether she prefers wet ground? Embracer and Lashes have winning prospects here and both of these horses have been in good form. Special Reward bumped into Southern Lad last start and he ran time that day, while Sir Bacchus isn’t hopeless at big odds.

Advice: River Bird to win. Could speck Sir Bacchus the place.

Speed map: Embracer should lead with Americana Magic, Cuba and Royal Celebration not far away.

Selections: 9-3-12-4

9.River Bird ($7.10): Loved the fresh run and she rattled home from the back- Can settle closer here and meets Embracer 3kg better off as well. Only niggle I can find is whether she prefers wet ground but has had excuses on dry ground in past

3.Embracer ($5.20): Hard to knock- wet or dry, makes his own luck on speed and should kick srongly again.  Figures were strong last start and 1200m suits better. Has a bit of company on speed.

12.Lashes ($5.40): having a great prep= Up in grade here off F+M B78 win but has a turn of foot and gets weight relief. Should be strong late.

4. Laburnum ($11.20): Didn’t hand;e the wet track first-up and can improve sharply here.

Place hope

2.Sir Bacchus ($34.40): Can often run a cheeky race fresh and I liked his trials leading in. Man of the moment Tom Marquand aboard! Blinkers off.

Other runners:

5. Cuba ($17), 6. Dawn Dawn ($11.2), 7. Americana Magic ($68.9), 8. Inanup ($19.4), 10. Royal Celebration ($34.4), 11. Roheryn ($17), 13. Reloaded ($17).

 

 

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick October 5

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