Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson preview Randwick September 21

 Sep 19 2019

Randwick (*rated prices for all runners to be added Saturday morning along with any other bets)

Best bets

Race 8 no.18 Supernova $6 (rated $4.80)

He is not well off at the weights under the conditions of this race but I was taken by the first up run of Supernova and this looks a logical target if he gets a run. He is also in at Cauflield so which way does he go? The $6.50 seems overs and he was good off a very slow tempo first-up and the trial since (in very slow time though) was pleasing.

Race 5 no.7 Cascadian $4 (rated $3.60)

Not a lot of value at $4 but I think he can win this and then be really competitive in an Epsom. He clocked the quickest last 600m of the race first-up over 1200m and his trial since has been super. The step up to 1400m along with the wet track (won twice on soft ground in France) means he can only run well here.

Betting strategies

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2.5 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2.5 units). A max 2.5 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 6 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Betting strategies (*** Added plays on Saturday morning in bold, the rest were locked in Thursday night)

Normal strategy (95 units)

Race 1 no.14 Marokawa 10 unit win at $5.50

Race 2 no.12 Cisco Bay 10 unit win at $11

Race 2 no.6 Lisdoonvarna 5 unit win at $8.50

Race 2 no.13 Eugene’s Pick 5 unit win at $9

Race 5 no.7 Cascadian 20 unit win at $4

Race 5 no.6 Star Of The Seas 5 unit win at $5.50

Race 8 no.18 Supernova 20 unit win at $6.50

10 unit main quaddie (starts r6, 7.4%)1st leg: 3,2,6. 2nd leg: 2,3,1. 3rd leg: 18,11,10. 4th leg: 9,2,7,4,1.

10 unit early quaddie (starts r2, 27.77%): 1st leg: 13,12,6,4. 2nd leg: 11,7,1. 3rd leg: 1. 4th leg: 7,6,5.

Results: +96.4 units (0.2%POT, 4086 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.65 units)

Race 1 no.14 Marokawa 0.25 unit win at $5.50

Race 2 no.12 Cisco Bay 0.25 unit win at $11

Race 2 no.6 Lisdoonvarna 0.2 unit win at $8.50

Race 2 no.13 Eugene’s Pick 0.2 unit win at $9

Race 5 no.7 Cascadian 0.75 unit win at $4

Race 5 no.6 Star Of The Seas 0.25 unit win at $5.50

Race 8 no.18 Supernova 0.75 unit win at $6.50

Results: +17.4 unit profit, (14%POT, 121.4 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Horses I’m AGAINST and think are under the odds (***prices before scratchings)

Race 2 no.2 Master Ash $4.40 (just OK fresh and doesn’t like wet tracks? Looks false fav)

Race 3 no.15 Master Of Wine $5.50 (coming out of a fair race and this is a step up. Seems short)

Race 5 no.3 Avantage $5 (thought her form lines were inferior personally)

Race 6 no.6 Classique Legend $4.20 (love him but poor set up here fresh on heavy when bigger fish to fry)

Race 9 no.14 Roheryn $6 (seems to have been overrated here and not convinced about him heavy)

 

Track heavy 9 (expect to be similar on Saturday- 8-9).

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

25/02/2017       Rand     TRUE     S6          On pace and on fence def adv                                                     

1/04/2017         Rand     TRUE     h8         Rail in run DYNAMITE (B4 TURN) fence/pace straight                                                   

13/10/2018       Rand     True      H9         Adv to be on pace here most of the day. Lanes were fine- best groudn outside fence but only a few horses went there late                                                   

15/12/2018       Rand     True      S6-7      Fence not the place to be- 2-5 lanes and then wider later                                                  

26/01/2019       Rand     True      G3         Pretty fair track- some races felt like fence not best but three winners day on fence. No dis to be on speed prob touch on pace but could still run on

9/03/2019         Randwick           True      G4              Pretty fair track. Out wide swooping slight advantage but could win closer in. Rained mid meeting                                                                    

6/04/2019         Rand     True      s7          Pretty fair although I don't think hard fence was great. Could make ground    

25/05/2019       Randwick           True      g4/3      Rail was off for most of the day, lanes 3 and out best

3/08/2019         Rwick    True      H8         Very fair track                                                                         

Assessment: Fair track last one but trend over last year says I doubt fence is best and getting a few off here. Wide gates no disadvantage late in day.

Wind: Fresh NNE-N predicted. Head wind in home straight, tail wind down back straight.

Race 1

Overview: Pretty open Highway here. Back to 1000m doesn’t look ideal for Marokawa but he had no luck at all last start and he seems to get through the wet ground. He can figure late here and I loved his win two back by a big space. I liked the way Feel The Knight has trialled leading in. He went to the line under a nice hold and the second and third horses in the trial have both won since. 

Advice: Leaning to Marokawa from Feel The Knight.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Major Danger and General Scarlet look the two leaders here. Speed looks genuine as MD should roll.

Market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 14-3-8-2

14.Marokawa ($4.50)- Bolted in two back and then no luck latest where should have been somewhere in the finish. Back to 1000m the knock but seems to get through the ground.

3.Feel The Knight ($4)- Lightly raced and showed good ability last prep. Won a Moruya trial by 4.5 lengths leading in- 2nd and 3rd in trial have both won since.

8.Caccini ($7)- Bit disapp LS but was 5 weeks between runs. Strong winner prior in Highway grade. Wet is a plus.

2. General Scarlet ($5.50)- Good win LS but didn’t beat much?

Other runners:

9. Fair Dinkum ($18), 12. Deviate ($11), 13. Sheza Danza ($23), 15. Mosrai ($140), 16. Nitro Star ($140). 17 Magic Scent ($140), 18. Maxbux ($140)

Race 2

Overview: I’m happy to bet around the favourite in Master Ash here and I was on him first-up and I thought he was plain and he hasn’t shown a liking for wet ground in the past. I want to speck a few horses at odds. First-up might be a query with Cisco Bay but his record on soft ground is super. He trialled really well on heavy ground leading in and I expect him to be in the finish. Eugene’s Pick had no luck last start and the step up in trip suits here. She should have beaten home the likes of Master Ash last time out. Lisdoonvarna was good with the big weight fresh and she is another one who will really like getting her toe into the ground.

Advice: Can speck Cisco Bay, Eugene's Pick and Lisdoonvarna.

Confidence: 6/10 that the three at juicy odds here will run well.

Speed map: Cuba and Condor look the two most prominent here. Speed should be even enough.

Likely market trend: Master Ash has to drift. I’m expecting Cisco Bay and Eugene’s Pick to firm.

Selections: 13-12-6-4


13.Eugene’s Pick ($5.50)- No luck first-up and should have beaten home the likes of Master Ash and Murillo for mine yet longer in betting here?Selections: 13-12-6-4

12.Cisco Bay ($7)- Loved his trial on heavy ground coming in. First-up off long break a query but he loves soft ground and profiles as if he will swim.

6.Lisdoonvarna ($7)- Sound in weaker race first-up with big weight. Likes wet tracks, 1400m maybe on outer limits but did beat Seaway 1400m.

4.Cuba ($5): Good winner midweek grade in solid figures, builds as prep goes and racing well, kicks on speed. Each-way hope.

Against:

2.Master Ash ($12)- Why so short in betting? Just fair fresh and doesn’t like wet ground?

Other runners:

5. Final Award ($10), 7. Chalmers ($24), 8. Excelsior ($49), 9. Condor ($49), 10. Super Star Bob ($28), 11. Rock Dove ($32),14. Touch Of Mink ($32).

 

Race 3

Overview: Looks a nice race for Junipal and he was a good thing beaten last start. I concede that was set up for the backmarkers but his last two runs have both been really good and he gets through heavy ground. Dealmaker is absolutely flying and the only knock I have is the real wet track and whether he is at home on it. He has also drawn wide once again. Penske pulled up lame last start and can bounce back despite the big weight, while Articus and Re Edit (wet track a query) both have each-way claims.

Advice: Can play Junipal and Dealmaker both to win if you like.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Penske should lead, while Rodrico (blinkers again), Greysful Glamour and Dark Eyes are all prominent. Speed should be even.

Likely market trend: Junipal and Dealmaker should dominate betting. Junipal has been a big firmer today (Thursday) so may get back out a touch?

Selections: 11-7-1-14

11.Junipal ($4)- Should have won last start in race set up for those off speed (slow L600 race). Good win prior and gets through wet ground. Up in grade but down in weight and senior jock on.

7.Dealmaker ($5) is absolutely flying and the only knock I have is the real heavy track and whether he is at home on it. Was beaten as fav on S7 in Carbine Club here back in autumn, He has also drawn wide once again.

1.Penske ($10)- Pulled up 2/5 lmame last start, Should lead and has won here S7 by big space in past. Big weight?

14.Re Edit ($8)- Did enough fresh although Dealmaker got past her late. Won mdn on heavy but that was narrowly and I doubt she is at home on it.

Other chances:

12.More To Gain ($29)- Second up off a long break at 1600m? Doubt he has the kms in the legs but caught the eye fresh and good wet tracker.

Other runners: 

2. Rodrico ($20), 4. Dark Eyes ($120), 5. All Too Soon ($17), 8. Milk Man ($24), 9. Aliferous ($40), 10. Petrology ($118), 13. Greysful Glamour ($50), 15. Master Of Wine ($12)

Race 4

Overview: Libertini is a star and she is getting out to a tempting price at even money. The queries of course are 1400m on a genuine wet track but her mum won up to 1700m. She ran well behind Bivouac on a soft 7 (best late splits of the day!) in the autumn and it’s just whether she is made to work early. Probabeel and Funstar are the other two main hopes.

Advice: Libertini on top.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Anaheed should lead. Does Libertini come across and sit outside? Speed doesn’t look overly strong.

Likely market trend: I reckon Flit drifts here which I wouldn’t be concerned about. I’m not sure what the punters do with Libertini re taking a stand or backing her.

Selections: 1-5-3-2

1.Libertini ($1.75)- She is star. Bolted in fresh and then win only narrow LS but time was good! 4-5L quicker than Baller on day and most L600. 1400m and heavy track the obvious queries but can win again.

5.Funstar ($6.50)- Lost no admirers fresh. L600 was 3L slower than Libertini’s on day. 1400m helps, wet is fine. Could be an Oaks horse next autumn?

3.Probabeel ($14)- Did enough fresh and 1400m and wet track brings her into it.

2. Anaheed ($17)- 1400m the query but great wet tracker. Finished alongside Bivouac last start.

Other runners:

6. Let It Pour ($21), 7. Subpoenaed ($21), 9. Aspect Ratio ($570), 10. St Covet's Spirit ($427),12. Emeralds ($21).

Race 5

Overview: Hard to go past Cascadian and I think he can win this and then be really competitive in an Epsom. He clocked the quickest last 600m of the race first-up over 1200m and his trial since has been super. The step up to 1400m along with the wet track (won twice on soft ground in France) means he can only run well here. Star Of The Seas loves wet ground and was impressive first-up.Kolding should have finished closer fresh when held up for most of the straight. He looks to have returned well and just needs to get through the ground. Archedemus was disappointing first-up but he is a better horse on wet ground and can jump out of the ground here. His form last prep was strong (came a long way in a short space). 

Advice: Cascadian to win. Saving on Star Of The Seas.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Desert Lord, Avantage and potentially Archedemus roll forward here. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Cascadian to be popular here. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is specking for Archedemus at odds.

Selections: 7-6-5-4


7.Cascadian ($3.60)- I think he can win this and then be really competitive in an Epsom. He clocked the quickest last 600m of the race first-up over 1200m and his trial since has been super. The step up to 1400m along with the wet track (won twice on soft ground in France) means he can only run well here. Drifts back but closes well.

6.Star Of The Seas ($5): Did enough fresh and he loves wet ground. Can only run well here. Underrated type.

5.Kolding ($5)- should have finished closer fresh when held up for most of the straight. He looks to have returned well and just needs to get through the ground (untried heavy), Different horse since being gelded last prep.

4.Archedemus ($14)- Disapp fresh (no excuse stewards report) but he is a different horse wet ground. One of the better wet trackers going around. Came a long way last prep. Can bounce back.

Other chance:

12.Desert Lord ($8)- Better horse than he showed first-up (inf ground) but seemed to be bogged down on wet track there. S7 track now helps. Seems to be settling a touch better which is a positive.

Other runners: 1. Tally ($170), 3. Avantage ($17), 8. Fierce Impact ($34), 10. My Xpression ($34), 11. Purple Sector ($86).

 

Race 6

Overview: I must admit I wasn’t as sold as everyone that ‘Redzel was back’ after his fresh win. It was an on pace day and personally I just want to see him do it again this prep. Having said that, this sets up really well for him leading without a lot of pressure on a wet track and he can easily win again. Pierata was the run of the day fresh where he clocked some super sectionals on a day where it was very hard to make ground. He seems to excel on wet ground and he just has to reproduce now to be hard to beat. Osborne Bulls has trialled well leading in and will be running on late. I’m a huge fan of Classique Legend but I have to be against him here at the price on a few fronts. One is, his only defeat (albeit wide and working) was on a heavy track, secondly he is first-up on a testing track and thirdly he is a horse that carries condition and comes from a stable where they liked to build into a prep and not have them wound up fresh. If he wins this, that says a lot about his chances in The Everest.

Advice: Leaning to Pierata but track pattern key.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Redzel should lead with Home Of The Brave sitting outside. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Classique Legend has to drift from $4.20. Looks a false fav considering the set up first up on a heavy track.

Selections: 3-2-6-10


3.Pierata ($3.10)- Smashed the clock first-up with some lightning closing splits (31.8 last 600m and home in 10.88- easily quickest of day). Drawn wide again the knock but how is pattern by this time of day? Excelled on wet Randwick in past.

2.Redzel ($3.10)- Track pattern key. Good win fresh albeit best part of track. This sets up really well for him leading without a lot of pressure on a wet track and he can easily win again.

6.Classique Legend ($3.50)- Love him as a horse but I don’t think this is his race. His only defeat (albeit wide and working) was on a heavy track, secondly he is first-up on a testing track and thirdly he is a horse that carries condition and comes from a stable where they liked to build into a prep and not have them wound up fresh.

10. Graff ($14)- next best.

Other runners:

7. Home Of The Brave ($29) 

Race 7

Overview: Pretty even race this and track pattern on the day could be vital. Avilius (wide and hard to make ground) had excuses last start and getting back onto a heavy deck (where he is two from two) looks suitable. He gets another chance. What you see is what you get with Happy Clapper. He was good fresh and has trialled well since. His form over the mile at Randwick is strong and he just wants the track to dry a touch. Dreamforce and Samadoubt were both on the right part of the track last start but they bolted in and they probably just doesn’t want it too wet. Dreamforce ran second in a Doncaster but I still want to see him run a strong mile.  Verry Elleegant can improve but needs to.

Advice: Leaning to Avilius.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Dreamforce and Samadoubt look the two leaders here. They can control the tempo between them.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 2-3-1-4


2.Avilius ($3.70)- Had excuses (wide and hard to make ground) last start and getting back onto a heavy deck (where he is two from two) looks suitable. He gets another chance.Out in price now.

3.Dreamforce ($4.80)- Wants the track to dry a touch. Dominant last time out. Still want to see him run a strong mile (Doncaster softly run). Has improved every prep!

1.Happy Clapper ($8)- What you see is what you get with Happy Clapper. He was good fresh and has trialled well since. His form over the mile at Randwick is strong and he just wants the track to dry a touch. Placed in A Doncaster on heavy ground.

4.Samadoubt ($6)- Won 2 from 2 this prep and hard to knock him! Very wet a query but dominant last start albeit right part of track on pace. Can he make it 3 in a row?

Other runners:

6. Mr Marathon Man ($180), 7. Angel Of Truth ($45), 8. Danzdanzadance ($17), 9. Youngstar ($30), 11. Verry Elleegant ($8).

Race 8

Overview: He is not well off at the weights under the conditions of this race but I was taken by the first up run of Supernova and this looks a logical target if he gets a run. He is also in at Cauflield so which way does he go? The $7 seems acceptable and he was good off a very slow tempo first-up and the trial since (very slow time) was pleasing. Come Play With Me is very likeable here but $3.50 seems short enough. He beat all bar the subsequent Wyong Gold Cup winner in Wu Gok last start. He will be up on speed and hard to get past again. I loved the way Big Duke trialled leading into this. He will give them a big start but watch for him late. The wet track suits and he normally runs well fresh.

Advice: Supernova to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Fabrizio, Stampede, Come Play With Me and Finche all up there early. Speed looks genuine.

Likely market trend: Expecting the support to come for Supernova if he gains a start. I think he will start shorter than $6.50. Come Play With Me should drift out from $3.50.

Selections: 18-11-10-3


18.Supernova ($4.70)- 10.88 QL200 of day by 2L last start (off slow tempo). He is not well off at the weights under the conditions of this race but I was taken by the first up run of Supernova and this looks a logical target if he gets a run. He is also in at Cauflield so which way does he go?

11.Come Play With Me ($4.70)- Horse to beat and only knock is the price $3.50. He beat all bar the subsequent Wyong Gold Cup winner in Wu Gok last start. He will be up on speed and hard to get past again.

10.Big Duke ($11)- loved the way Big Duke trialled leading into this. He will give them a big start but watch for him late. The wet track suits and he normally runs well fresh. 2nd 1900m first up last prep Rhill. Has won heavy Rwick.

3.Sir Charles Road ($31)- Liked his two runs back. Found line well first up 60kg and then chopped out LS when running on late. Wet shouldn’t bother him (failed Heavy NZ but that was 3200m)

Other chances:

9.Stampede ($13)- Disap last start in Wyong Gold Cup but back on wet ground, has bolted in heavy Randwick past. Up on speed.

Other runners:

1. Shraaoh ($18), 2. Patrick Erin ($52), 4. Finche ($13), 6. Carzoff ($19), 7. Grey Lion ($19), 12. Haripour ($52), 13. Fabrizio ($312), 14. Maurus ($52), 16. Girl Tuesday ($12), 17. Scarlet Dream ($12), 19. Doukhan ($100).

Race 9

Overview: I think this is a race in three between Prime Candidate, You Make Me Smile and Greyworm. Greyworm got the better of You Make Me Smile last start but the latter gets a 1.5kg swing in the weights and the in-form Tommy Berry goes aboard. He is also a heavy track winner at Randwick. Greyworm just draws off the track a touch but it might be OK by this time of the day. Prime Candidate didn’t run out the 1400m last start but back to 1200m here and it’s just a case of whether he handles the heavy ground. He didn’t trial that well on heavy ground earlier in his career but I don’t think he was going anywhere near as well as he is now. Star Reflection can run well at odds but I’m against Roheryn who I think has been a touch overrated by the bookies here.

Advice: Leaning to Prime Candidate now we're on a soft 7.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Prime Candidate should lead with You Make Me Smile and Sweet Scandal ensuring the tempo is genuine.

Likely market trend: Expect the market to focus around Prime Candidate and Greyworm. Expecting You Make Me Smile’s price to hold or drift slightly.

Selections: 9-2-7-4

9.Prime Candidate ($4.60)- didn’t run out the 1400m last start but back to 1200m here and it’s just a case of whether he handles the heavy ground. He didn’t trial that well on heavy ground earlier in his career but I don’t think he was going anywhere near as well as he is now. Think he is the best horse in the race.

2.You Make Me Smile ($5.50)- Greyworm got the better of You Make Me Smile last start but the latter gets a 1.5kg swing in the weights and the in-form Tommy Berry goes aboard. He is also a heavy track winner at Randwick. Should lane outside Prime Candidate and run well.

7.Greyworm ($6)- Greyworm just draws off the track a touch but it might be OK by this time of the day. Strong through the line LS after disappointing behind Prime Candidate first-up.

4.Star Reflection ($13)- Good wet tracker. Freshen and a soft trial. She is a soft track winner at Randwick in the past.

Other chance:

1.Don't Give A Damn ($15)- Thought he was going to be scratched but they've opted to run. Disappointing fresh last prep but beat Trekking fresh prior! Won 3/4 fresh. Has to be respected here. Looks the overs at $23.

Against:

14. Roheryn ($9): Doubt he is a wet tracker and think he has been overplayed a touch in the market here.

Other runners: 1. Don't Give A Damn, 3. Sweet Scandal ($29), 6. Improvement ($10), 8. Suncraze ($40), 11. Piracy ($59) 

 

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick September 21

 Email to friend   

       

Send to friend

Brad Davidson preview Randwick September 21

Your Name *
Your Email *
Friend's Name *
Friend's Email *

Racing Search

Live Racing

International Racing

Upcoming International Racing on Sky

Saturday 19th

Bet Now ASCOT
G1 - The Queen Elizabeth Ii Stakes Sponsored By Qipco (class 1)

Bet Now ASCOT
G1 - The Qipco British Champions Sprint Stakes (class 1)

Bet Now ASCOT
G1 - The Qipco Champion Stakes (class 1)

Bet Now ASCOT
G1 - The Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (class 1)

Sunday 20th

KYOTO
G1 - Kikuka Sho (japanese St. Leger)

View Sky International

Form Guide

Sports

Connect