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Brad Davidson preview Kensington September 4

 Sep 3 2019

** Best value recorded at $7 due to compensating for firming price when sent out (firmed from $8.50 quickly when email sent out). I want people to be able to get the prices quoted. 

Randwick Kensington

Best value

Race 3 no.7 Koonunga $7 and $2 (rated $6) (will record at $7 as it may firm after sent out)

Koonunga has to be a bet here and she looks good value at $8.50. Her last 600m was on par with subsequent winner God Of Thunder (OK 0.02s slower!) last start and her run was super after having to go right back from the gate. She lands probably box seat from the gate, Nash on, we just want the track to keep drying which it should do. Runs well here at good odds.

Normal strategy (60 units) *** Prices prior to scratching

Race 1 no.2 Promotions 15 unit win at $5

Race 3 no.7 Koonunga 20 unit win at $7 and 15 unit place at $2

Race 5 no.3 Mapmaker 5 unit to win at $9.50

5 unit main quaddie (20.8%): 1st leg: 1,5,12. 2nd leg: 3,5,8,10. 3rd leg: 2. 4th leg: 11,6.

Results: +60 units (+1.6% POT, 3676 units outlayed.

 

Long game strategy (1.95 units) ** Prices prior to scratching

Race 1 no.2 Promotions 0.5 unit win at $5

Race 3 no.7 Koonunga 0.75 unit win at $7 and 0.5 unit place at $2

Race 5 no.3 Mapmaker 0.2 unit win at $9.50

Results: +12.35 units (+11.2%POT, 109.45 units outlayed)

 

 

Rail out 2m, expecting soft 5.

No history with rail out 2m. Yet to use this rail position according to my stats. Here is recent history with 3m:

10/06/2019       Kenso    3m        S6-5      Pretty fair track although fence a bit inferior more distinct later in day. Didn't want to be too far off them                                                  

3/04/2019         Kenso    3m        S6          Fair track

Assessment; Has been the fairest track in Sydney for six months. Might chop out late if still a bit wet but expecting a fair track.

Wind: Gentle Easterly

Race 1

Overview: I thought Promotions looked over the odds here. I know he had on pace favours fresh but he went to the line with Avon River and the trial since has been solid. James McDonald rides him and was aboard Petronius last start. I’m respecting the money for Entent. The trials have been solid and it’s not often you find a first starter with a nom for a Melbourne Cup.

Selecitons: 2-3-1-5

Advice: Promotions looks over at $5 and looks a bet.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Entente and Promotions look the most prominent here with Well Known probably pushing forward. Speed looks even.

Likely market trend: They’ve come for Entente early but it’s hard to tell what they will do with that horse late being a first starter. Promotions may firm.

Selections: 2-3-1-5

2.Promotions ($4) - Looks to have come back well- On pace favours last start in slowly run race but went to line with AR. 7 SUBS ST 1 placing out of race but nice tickover trial since. 1400m should be fine. McDonald off Petronius to ride Promotions?

3.Entente ($4)- Two trials- First one soft at Gosford never asked for effort. Pushed out to win latest at Rhill 1030m in OK time. Should roll forward.By Dundeel- Nom’d Caul Guineas and Melb Cup!

1.Petronius ($7)-Bumped into a smart one fresh- Stuck on and beat the rest- Time was quickest of 3 x 1200m races on day. Gets his chance. Mum won over a mile.

5.Colada ($9)- Taking ground off Petronius last start late after missing start slightly.Late splits were strong but on day running time.  1st time 1400m (mum won over a mile), Nash on, wide gate- forward or back?

Other runners:

4.Battenburg ($63)- had chance only run last prep. Two trials just fair- latest in open heat but still.

6.Pahang ($25)- Just Ok two runs to date and this looks to have more depth. 1400M could help and most siblibgs won at this trip or beyond.

7.Well Known ($63)- Blinkers off, crossovernoseband on. Hung out around turn but disap fresh. Won trial ridden out in OK time prior. Needs to lift.

9.Perfect Impression ($17)- Well beaten stakes grade only run- 3 trials- pushed out 2nd one when 2nd Bound To Blush then won latest pushed out in solid time. Nash rode in trial but rides Colada here. 2nd/3rd unraced in trial.

10.Sciconic ($63)- Blinkers off- got back and closed off OK at Hawkesbury. .8s or 5L slower than other mdn on day. Doesn’t look right form.

11.War Baron ($12)- Canterbury not his right track last start. Now on the Kenso. Back to 1400m. Has been costly. Not much luck two back.

 

Race 2

Overview: Open race with plenty of depth. I like the way Super Oasis attacked the line fresh after being held up until late in the piece. She is her own worst enemy in that she is still quite a keen horse in the run but I expect her to close off. Californiadeepshot ran super time first-up and can go on, while Galaxial could start silly odds and he beat a nice horse with form around Spiritual Pursuit last start. All Cylinders should find this much easier,

Advice: Leaning to Super Oasis but tough race.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Good speed expected with Point Of Interest, Texas Forever, All Cylinders, Hit The Rim and maybe Memphis Rock rolling forward. Super Oasis drifts back.

Likely market trend: Hard to tell with this type of race to be honest.

Selections: 10-2-1-7

10.Super Oasis ($3.60)- Big win fresh when held up until the 150m and then very strong late. QL600,400,200 of day despite held up. Slow overall figure race but can’t hold her on that. Soft tickover trial since. Concern is she pulls hard and needs to relax. Has talent though. 3rd horse has won since.

2.All Cylinders ($5.20)- Broke through stalls before start, cleared and was just fair. Drops in class but up in weight here as a result. Form last prep reafs well. 4th/5th well beaten since.

1.Dresden Green ($7.50)- Won a weak form mdn (7 subs st 1pl) and then too wet before a break. Two trials- soft one first one in slow heat at Gosford and then pushed along and just ok second one 5th/9 Rhill 1030.

7.Standout ($7)-Sot trial and then too good fresh when winning in good time at Gosford. 4-5L quicker than other maiden on day off same early tempo.

Other runners:

3.Memphis Rock ($9)- Won mdn easily and then got on pace favours when overrun from the back. Reckon a few have more upside personally but will have admirers.

6.Hit The Rim ($15)-Trialled well and then won on debut despite wondering off the track late. Time was much slower (7-8l) slower than other 900m race on day. Concerns me that (slower early but also slower late).

8.Texas Forever ($26)- Backed late and led and kept on going fresh. Figures just OK, second horse beaten 2L in Bendigo mdn other start? Needs to lift again but can and many horses life sharply start 1 to 2 in career.

9.Iskander ($58)- Hard to recommend on recent efforts.

11.Point Of Interest ($38)- Won a weak rating mdn on debut, break and then two searching trials where pushed along in solid time, 2nd horse form mdn beaten 4 times in mdn grade since. Yet to win.

 

Race 3

Overview: Koonunga has to be the bet here and she looks good value at $8.50. Her last 600m was on par with God Of Thunder (OK 0.02s slower!) and her run was super last start after having to go right back from the gate. Lands probably box seat from the gate, Nash on, just want the track to keep drying. Runs well here. Royal Witness will lead and prove hard to run down. He is flying this horse and 1000m on the Kenso is his go. Has his fair share of weight now. Human Nature was a bit disappointing fresh but he was sitting up on a very strong speed first-up and you have to be forgiving. This is harder all the same.

Advice: Koonunga the main play of the day for me each-way. $8.50 has to be overs.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Solid speed here with Captain Courageous, Royal Witness, Human Nature and Sheriff all up there. Koonunga finds a spot behind them.

Likely market trend: I reckon Royal Witness will get out slightly although it won’t drift massively as it will rate well on most experts’ ratings. Koonunga just has to firm from mine from $8.50. Human Nature has admirers too. Market should focus on them.

Selections: 7-1-8-2

7.Koonunga ($5)- Jumped well, had to go back from the wde and clocked 32.28 2nd QL600 of race. Subsequent winner God Of Thunder 32.26 last 600m on day so nothing between them. Wet tracks again prior. Last few runs on a good track have been better than they look (no luck at all  5 back on good track at Randwick).

1.Royal Witness ($2.30)- Ran a 1000m track record handtimed last start when defeating subs winner GOT. Loves 1000m around Kenso. Up to 60kg now but hard to knock. Should lead and kick.

8.Human Nature ($4.80)- Trialled really well and then a bit disappointing fresh but they went too hard in front. Mdn went quicker on day overall. Won only start this t/d last prep-

2.Sheriff ($12)- Won two trials in good fashion leading in. Always been a touch underrated. Will 1000m be too sharp. Wins 1200-1300m.

Other runners:

3.Rebel Miss ($39)- Just fair fresh. Only has short sharp sprint. Hasn’t won for 15 runs now.

5.Captain Courageous ($52)- hard to have on last few starts.

6.Colombina ($15)- Two nice trials- Latest through a quick heat when found the line under no pressure. Just question whether she has the depth of form last prep for this?

9.Count Dekroner ($311)- Got back and just fair fresh. Needs to lift.

 

Race 4

Overview: I loved the fight Castel Saint’angelo showed last start when challenged and he looks a stayer on the rise. Don’t be put off with the wide gate and he should lead easily enough. We were on Penshurst last start and weren’t we stiff not to get a collect with the $8 the place! Should have run second and had no luck. 2400m form overseas, they haven’t missed him here but can only run well.

Advice: Castel Saint’angelo the horse to beat. Penshurst chimes in late.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even only despite the big field. Expect Castel Saint’angelo to cross over and dictate in front.

Likely market trend: Breakdance just has to drift for mine from $5.50. I know he won by a big margin last start but the figures didn’t back it up to the eye and this has more depth.

Selections: 1-5-12-6

1.Castel Saint’angelo ($3.50)- Promising stayer on the rise. Well backed and fought off subs Saturday city class Brisbane winner Makdanife last start. Now 2400m. fights off the canvass. Gets across ok.

5.Penshurst ($6.50) Pulled up with cardiac arrythmia and then should have finished much closer last start when held up before QL200 of race. Both wins overseas 2400m. Just gives them a start. Nash on.

12.Athena’s Voice ($17)- RT comes to town. Won her past two starts over 2200/2100. Beat Captain America three lengths two back that horse beaten 1.2L by Breakdance since. Form ties in. Drops in weight.

6.He’s Imposing ($12)- Made good ground from the back where he went past Exec Chairman late two back then maybe tight track or wet against, disap on Sunday. QBU. Won at 2400m.

Other chances:

3.Equipped ($14)- Improved sharply up in trip third up when good behind a good wet tracker last Sunda. On QBU. Has won 4th up before. Doesn’t win out of turn.

7.Hoof Hustler ($15)- OK last start and gets out to right trip now. Gets his chance but might find a couple too classy still? 2 of 3 wins at 2400m.

4.Executive Chairman ($19)- Too good at Goulburn and then back to inside last start and plugged home OK. Won maiden in Ireland over 2400m. 5th up first prep in Aus.

Against:

2.Breakdance ($14)- Seems short at $5.50. Big winner latest but figures just OK and beat nothing. 2nd horse beaten 4.5L at Quirindi prior.

Other runners:

8.Amthaalm($60)- Struggled against a similar field last start and needs to lift.,

9.Terwilliker ($21)- Two tickover trials- closed off well enough on latest. Just fair form of late but has a nice second on course proper here over 2400m on genuine wet track. Gets back.

10.Toulouse ($28)- WNC last star and atuck on OK considering. Thereabouts without really threatening of late. Won 2/17.

11.Yuralla Boy ($60)- Won over 2900m two back- form either side just OK. Beaten by Breakdance three back. Gets 3.5kg swing on thathorse.

13.Lady Evelyn ($28)- Won two back weak form race (17 subs st 5 pl) and then just OK ls. Placed 2100M in past but up to 2400m first time.

14.My King’s Counsel ($174(- Just fair recent form.

15.Notabadharada (will be priced if in race)- Hard to have on recent efforts.

16.Fluidity (will be priced if in race)- Showed ability in the past but jsust struggling of late.

17.Dashing Special (will be priced if in race)- Doubt he gets a run? Looks a task if he does.

 

Race 5

Overview: Tricky little race this. Mapmaker could be the value. He finds a winnable race and at the odds I will lean his way simply on price. Zalatte has good fresh (less than three lengths off in a Surround first up last prep over 1400m), while Master Of Wine has strong form lines last prep and has had a nice soft trial coming in. Danawi will have fans if he lines up here but I’m concerned about him stepping up in trip considering he is still a bit keen in the run.

Advice: Leaning to Mapmaker at the price but I want to see what the market does with Zalatte and Master Of Wine. Is there a push for one of them first-up?

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Mapmaker, Falcon Island and potentially Zaunkonig the three on speed here. Speed should be genuine enough if FI rolls.

Likely market trend: No opinion here. Moves on Zalatte or Master Of Wine will be important here.

Selections: 3-5-8-10

3.Mapmaker ($6.50)- Stuck on well last two and might be able to be a bit more aggressive here. Hasn’t won for 12 runs the knock but should run well.

5.Zalatte ($4.20)- Resuming no public trials but two soft jump outs in Vic. Beaten less than 3L first up G1 last prep 1400m Surround. Won on debut prep before. Runs on late.

8.Master Of Wine ($5)- Nice soft trial coming in. Did a good job first prep- Form around Begood Toya Mother and Wolfe. Should run well fresh as expect to have done plenty of work.

10.Duchess Of Lennox ($6)- Two soft trials coming in.Came a long way in one prep last time in. Market first-up 1550m?

Other runners:

2.Falcon Island ($15)- First-up up on  speed and faded late. Won mdn second up first prep but wins 4th up and beyond last prep. 3 wins this distance range.

4.Stryke Rock ($8)- Won avg form race, then got back slow run race closed off, latest too good in OK figures WF. Having a good prep, this is a new level though.

6.Zaunkonig ($63)- 3wnc first-up but well held off long break. What for improvement.

7.Braces ($47)- Just fair last few. Hard to have.

11.Darci’s Affair ($95)- Just battling of late.

 

Race 6

Overview: Rock got the job done well fresh and he looks hard to beat again here. He is no spoil at the price though considering he started a similar price first-up against weaker opposition and there is a slight query here on whether he wants that bit further now? Still the horse to beat. Final Award, Juventus and Defeat at odds all run well. Keep Nordicus safe off a throat op. Had excuses with that issue before a break. Danawi must be considered if he runs here and I think back in trip is OK considering how he races (keen).

Advice: Rock on top but under my rated price.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Should be evenly runner at least with speed expected from Oneness, Don’t Leave Me Out, Leningrad and Virgilio all rolling forward. The first two mentioned are probably likely to take a sit though so could take some of that of that.

Likely market trend: Rock starts a firm favourite I would imagine. Respect any specking for Nordicus if it arrives.

Selections: 2-1-14-4

2.Rock ($2.40)- Big return-5th QL600 of day when winning well fresh. More depth here but come back well and not easy to make ground fresh. 60.5kg, McEvoy on

1.Final Award ($8)- Two trials- First one fair but good opposition and no blinkers- second one closed off well to run second to Pretty Brazen in good time. Resumes- Gets back- Might want further but finishes off. Slow to recover stakes race before a break.

14.Danawi ($8)- Ridden conservatively last couple and has closed off well. Quite keen in run LS. Nash on. 1400 back to 1300?

4.Juventus ($10)- 2nd QL600 of the day fresh (only Ballistica quicker) when finishing off to score. Extra 50m helps, up in grade here. Not sure that was strongest race and 3rd/5th soundly held since.

Other chances:

5.Virgilio ($15)- Turned the corner last two, led set good tempos and kept going. Not sure he has beaten much and now speed inside drawn wide but clearly in a groove.

3.Don’t Leave Me Out ($15)- Bit disapp last start- performance rated sev lengths inferior to Rock on same day. 1250m now. Worst part of track fresh.

10.Nordicus ($18)- Tongue tie off. Pushed along in trial and closed off 2nd Hawkesb under pressure- LS=audible respiratory noise,  lame (1/5) in the off-foreleg..endoscopic exam post-race revealed grade 4/5 paralysis of the larynx (roarer). Tie-back surgery since confirmed.

Other runners:

6.Leningrad ($20)- Solid effort fresh whe just missing to Juventus. Gets a 1.5kg swing in weights. Must be considered if you like Juventus.

8.Oneness ($22)- Went back LS and just fair. Just going OK. Finds Bowman- better than what he has been showing of late.

12.Sedgemoor- Scr.Disapp last start when up in grade. No excuses in stewards report. Has been well placed to date.

13.Not A Biggie ($892)- prefer others.

Race 7

Overview: Hard to tip against the favourite but again I don’t think she is a spoil at the price considering she is going to give them a decent start (how is the track playing by this race?) Exotic Ruby is interesting. She won fresh in fair figures and then ran well behind Pandemic. Those races were over 1000m and 1100m and now she gets to 1300m. Most of her mother’s wins were over a mile plus so it begs the question, has she just been competitive over shorter trips on talent? If so, she can give the favourite a run for her money here. High Low Bet had no luck last start and has place claims if there is still a bit of give in the track by this time of day.

Advice: Fav on top but under my rated price. Exotic Ruby may jump out of the ground and could be a genuine threat. Could entertain High Low Bet a place if the track is still genuinely soft (doubtful).

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Lakia should lead with Secret Lady and Embezzlement rolling forward.

Likely market trend: I expect they’ll come for Subpoenaed again, she is a popular horse already in Aus.

Selections: 11-6-7-3

11. Subpoenaed ($2.10)- Canterbury against first up and held up too but flattened out well late with a nice L200 of 11.17 (2nd QL200 of day). Bigger track, 1300. Gets back though but horse to beat.

6.Exotic Ruby ($5)- Won mdn in avg figures but over 1000m then ran on well against some smart ones LS. 4 OF 5 of her mother’s win at 1600m and beyond. Bred to enjoy this trip. Nash on, good gate.

7.Lakia ($6)- Led and kept going to score on on pace day at Canterbury. Well backed, overall time just 1L slower than Subpoeaned on day. Clark on front runner,

3.High Low Bet ($17)- Probably didn’t see out mile two back then never got a crack at them last start. Form around Bangkok prior looks all right. Wetter the better for her. Place chance.

Other runners:

1.Secret Lady ($39)- Back in grade up in trip. Just fair in two runs back. Claim of in form apprentice helps/

4.Smoodge ($158)- Doubt that Dubbo form (3 subs st 0 pl) is strong enough.

5.Embezzlment-  ($158)- Raced fiercely but struggled fresh.

8.Mahalo ($53)- Not sure that Moruya form is strong enough here.

9.Miss Einstein ($19)- Resuming last start and not much between her and Subponead. NZ horse was gloing past her late but solid all the same.

10.Celestial Falls ($53)- Two trials pushed along and just fair. Further?

12.Living Rocks ($31)- Got job done last start but figures just OK and this much tougher.K McEvoy on.

14.Remuera ($105)- Ear Muffs FIRST TIME, Lugging Bit FIRST TIME. Needs to lift on recent form.

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Kensington September 4

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