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Brad Davidson preview Wyong Sep 6

 Sep 3 2019

Randwick (*rated prices for all runners to be added Saturday morning along with any other bets)

Best bets

Race 8 no.18 Supernova $6 (rated $5)

He is not well off at the weights under the conditions of this race but I was taken by the first up run of Supernova and this looks a logical target if he gets a run. He is also in at Cauflield so which way does he go? The $6.50 seems overs and he was good off a very slow tempo first-up and the trial since (in very slow time though) was pleasing.

Race 5 no.7 Cascadian $4 (rated $3.80)

Not a lot of value at $4 but I think he can win this and then be really competitive in an Epsom. He clocked the quickest last 600m of the race first-up over 1200m and his trial since has been super. The step up to 1400m along with the wet track (won twice on soft ground in France) means he can only run well here.

 

Betting strategies

Normal strategy (60 units)

Race 2 no.12 Cisco Bay 10 unit win at $11

Race 2 no.6 Lisdoonvarna 5 unit win at $8.50

Race 2 no.13 Eugene’s Pick 5 unit win at $9

Race 5 no.7 Cascadian 20 unit win at $4

Race 8 no.18 Supernova 20 unit win at $6.50

***Quaddie + any further bets to come Sat morning

Results: +96.4 units (0.2%POT, 4086 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.15 units)

Race 2 no.12 Cisco Bay 0.25 unit win at $11

Race 2 no.6 Lisdoonvarna 0.2 unit win at $8.50

Race 2 no.13 Eugene’s Pick 0.2 unit win at $9

Race 5 no.7 Cascadian 0.75 unit win at $4

Race 8 no.18 Supernova 0.75 unit win at $6.50

*** Any further bets to come Saturday

Results: +17.4 unit profit, (14%POT, 121.4 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Horses I’m AGAINST and think are under the odds

Race 2 no.2 Master Ash $4.40 (just OK fresh and doesn’t like wet tracks? Looks false fav)

Race 3 no.15 Master Of Wine $5.50 (coming out of a fair race and this is a step up. Seems short)

Race 5 no.3 Avantage $5 (former just looks under, latter heavy track query!)

Race 6 no.6 Classique Legend $4.20 (love him but poor set up here fresh on heavy when bigger fish to fry)

Race 9 no.14 Roheryn $6 (seems to have been overrated here and not convinced about him heavy)

 

Track heavy 9 (expect to be similar on Saturday- 8-9).

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

25/02/2017       Rand     TRUE     S6          On pace and on fence def adv                                                     

1/04/2017         Rand     TRUE     h8         Rail in run DYNAMITE (B4 TURN) fence/pace straight                                                   

13/10/2018       Rand     True      H9         Adv to be on pace here most of the day. Lanes were fine- best groudn outside fence but only a few horses went there late                                                   

15/12/2018       Rand     True      S6-7      Fence not the place to be- 2-5 lanes and then wider later                                                  

26/01/2019       Rand     True      G3         Pretty fair track- some races felt like fence not best but three winners day on fence. No dis to be on speed prob touch on pace but could still run on

9/03/2019         Randwick           True      G4              Pretty fair track. Out wide swooping slight advantage but could win closer in. Rained mid meeting                                                                    

6/04/2019         Rand     True      s7          Pretty fair although I don't think hard fence was great. Could make ground    

25/05/2019       Randwick           True      g4/3      Rail was off for most of the day, lanes 3 and out best

3/08/2019         Rwick    True      H8         Very fair track                                                                         

Assessment: Fair track last one but trend over last year says I doubt fence is best and getting a few off here. Wide gates no disadvantage late in day.

Wind: Fresh NNE-N predicted. Head wind in home straight, tail wind down back straight.

Race 1

Overview: Pretty open Highway here. Back to 1000m doesn’t look ideal for Marokawa but he had no luck at all last start and he seems to get through the wet ground. He can figure late here and I loved his win two back by a big space. I liked the way Feel The Knight has trialled leading in. He went to the line under a nice hold and the second and third horses in the trial have both won since. Highway Sixtysix might find 1000m a tad short but the wet track brings her into it, while Irish Songs was a bit disappointing last start but it was a day where it was hard to run on and his two runs prior were both quite good.

Advice: Leaning to Marokawa from Feel The Knight.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Major Danger and General Scarlet look the two leaders here. Speed looks genuine as MD should roll.

Market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 14-3-1-6

14.Marokawa- Bolted in two back and then no luck latest where should have been somewhere in the finish. Back to 1000m the knock but seems to get through the ground.

3.Feel The Knight- Lightly raced and showed good ability last prep. Won a Moruya trial by 4.5 lengths leading in- 2nd and 3rd in trial have both won since.

1.Irish Songs- Bit disappointing LS but it was a day where it was hard to run on and his two runs prior were both quite good. Won here on soft.

6.Highway Sixtysix- might find 1000m a tad short but the wet track brings her into it. Wanting to press claims for Kosciousko (D Williams has a slot)?

Other chances:

7.Major Danger- Bit keen at the trials but won trial well leading in. Already a Highway winner (weak form Highway though).

8.Caccini- Bit disapp LS but was 5 weeks between runs. Strong winner prior in Highway grade. Wet is a plus.

2. General Scarlet- Good win LS but didn’t beat much?

 

Race 2

Overview: I’m happy to bet around the favourite in Master Ash here and I was on him first-up and I thought he was plain and he hasn’t shown a liking for wet ground in the past. I want to speck a few horses at odds. First-up might be a query with Cisco Bay but his record on soft ground is super. He trialled really well on heavy ground leading in and I expect him to be in the finish. Eugene’s Pick had no luck last start and the step up in trip suits here. She should have beaten home the likes of Master Ash last time out. Lisdoonvarna was good with the big weight fresh and she is another one who will really like getting her toe into the ground.

Advice: Can speck Cisco Bay, Eugene's Pick and Lisdoonvarna.

Confidence: 6/10 that the three at juicy odds here will run well.

Speed map: Cuba and Condor look the two most prominent here. Speed should be even enough.

Likely market trend: Master Ash has to drift. I’m expecting Cisco Bay and Eugene’s Pick to firm.

Selections: 12-13-6-4

12.Cisco Bay- Loved his trial on heavy ground coming in. First-up off long break a query but he loves soft ground and profiles as if he will swim.

13.Eugene’s Pick- No luck first-up and should have beaten home the likes of Master Ash and Murillo for mine yet longer in betting here?

6.Lisdoonvarna- Sound in weaker race first-up with big weight. Likes wet tracks, 1400m maybe on outer limits but did beat Seaway 1400m.

4.Cuba: Good winner midweek grade in solid figures, builds as prep goes and racing well, kicks on speed. Each-way hope.

Against:

2.Master Ash- Why so short in betting? Just fair fresh and doesn’t like wet ground?

 

Race 3

Overview: Looks a nice race for Junipal and he was a good thing beaten last start. I concede that was set up for the backmarkers but his last two runs have both been really good and he gets through heavy ground. Dealmaker is absolutely flying and the only knock I have is the real heavy track and whether he is at home on it. He has also drawn wide once again. Penske pulled up lame last start and can bounce back despite the big weight, while Articus and Re Edit (wet track a query) both have each-way claims.

Advice: Junipal on top but price has gone off on Thursday. Should get back out.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Penske should lead, while Rodrico (blinkers again), Greysful Glamour and Dark Eyes are all prominent. Speed should be even.

Likely market trend: Junipal and Dealmaker should dominate betting. Junipal has been a big firmer today (Thursday) so may get back out a touch?

Selections: 11-7-1-14

11.Junipal- Should have won last start in race set up for those off speed (slow L600 race). Good win prior and gets through wet ground. Up in grade but down in weight and senior jock on.

7.Dealmaker is absolutely flying and the only knock I have is the real heavy track and whether he is at home on it. Was beaten as fav on S7 in Carbine Club here back in autumn, He has also drawn wide once again.

1.Penske- Pulled up 2/5 lmame last start, Should lead and has won here S7 by big space in past. Big weight?

14.Re Edit- Did enough fresh although Dealmaker got past her late. Won mdn on heavy but that was narrowly and I doubt she is at home on it.

Other chances:

3.Articus- Won LS on dry and has mixed form wet. Has to be somewhere in mix.

12.More To Gain- Second up off a long break at 1600m? Doubt he has the kms in the legs but caught the eye fresh and good wet tracker.

 

Race 4

Overview: I think Flit is the gamble here and I reckon we will even get a touch better than $7.50 on race day. I loved her return over 1200m where she got warm late and clocked the same last 200m as Libertini. I’m not sure the inside gate is ideal here but her trial since that was pleasing and she just has to get through the wet ground to go close. Libertini is a star and she is getting out to a tempting price at even money. The queries of course are 1400m on a genuine heavy track but her mum won up to 1700m. She ran well behind Bivouac on a soft 7 (best late splits of the day!) in the autumn and it’s just whether she is made to work early. Probabeel and Funstar are the other two main hopes.

Advice: Leaning to Flit at the odds.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Anaheed should lead. Does Libertini come across and sit outside? Speed doesn’t look overly strong.

Likely market trend: I reckon Flit drifts here which I wouldn’t be concerned about. I’m not sure what the punters do with Libertini re taking a stand or backing her.

Selections: 4-1-5-3

4.Flit- I think Flit is the gamble here and I reckon we will even get a touch better than $7.50 on race day. I loved her return over 1200m where she got warm late and clocked the same last 200m as Libertini. I’m not sure the inside gate is ideal here but her trial since that was pleasing and she just has to get through the wet ground to go close. Has 1400m written all over her.       

1.Libertini- She is star. Bolted in fresh and then win only narrow LS but time was good! 4-5L quicker than Baller on day and most L600. 1400m and heavy track the obvious queries but can win again.

5.Funstar- Lost no admirers fresh. L600 was 3L slower than Libertini’s on day. 1400m helps, wet is fine. Could be an Oaks horse next autumn?

3.Probabeel- Did enough fresh and 1400m and wet track brings her into it.

 

Race 5

Overview: Hard to go past Cascadian and I think he can win this and then be really competitive in an Epsom. He clocked the quickest last 600m of the race first-up over 1200m and his trial since has been super. The step up to 1400m along with the wet track (won twice on soft ground in France) means he can only run well here. Kolding should have finished closer fresh when held up for most of the straight. He looks to have returned well and just needs to get through the ground. Archedemus was disappointing first-up but he is a better horse on wet ground and can jump out of the ground here. His form last prep was strong (came a long way in a short space). Star Of The Seas loves wet ground and was impressive first-up.

Advice: Cascadian to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Desert Lord, Avantage and potentially Archedemus roll forward here. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Cascadian to be popular here. I wouldn’t be surprised if there is specking for Archedemus at odds.

Selections: 7-5-6-4

7.Cascadian- I think he can win this and then be really competitive in an Epsom. He clocked the quickest last 600m of the race first-up over 1200m and his trial since has been super. The step up to 1400m along with the wet track (won twice on soft ground in France) means he can only run well here. Drifts back but closes well.

5.Kolding- should have finished closer fresh when held up for most of the straight. He looks to have returned well and just needs to get through the ground (untried heavy), Different horse since being gelded last prep.

6.Star Of The Seas: Did enough fresh and he loves wet ground. Can only run well here. Underrated type.

4.Archedemus- Disapp fresh (no excuse stewards report) but he is a different horse wet ground. One of the better wet trackers going around. Came a long way last prep. Can bounce back.

Other chance:

12.Desert Lord- Better horse than he showed first-up (inf ground) but seemed to be bogged down on wet track there. Heavy here the knock? Seems to be settling a touch better which is a positive.

 

Race 6

Overview: I must admit I wasn’t as sold as everyone that ‘Redzel was back’ after his fresh win. It was an on pace day and personally I just want to see him do it again this prep. Having said that, this sets up really well for him leading without a lot of pressure on a wet track and he can easily win again. Pierata was the run of the day fresh where he clocked some super sectionals on a day where it was very hard to make ground. He seems to excel on wet ground and he just has to reproduce now to be hard to beat. Osborne Bulls has trialled well leading in and will be running on late. I’m a huge fan of Classique Legend but I have to be against him here at the price of $4.20 on a few fronts. One is, his only defeat (albeit wide and working) was on a heavy track, secondly he is first-up on a testing track and thirdly he is a horse that carries condition and comes from a stable where they liked to build into a prep and not have them wound up fresh. If he wins this, that says a lot about his chances in The Everest.

Advice: Leaning to Pierata but track pattern key.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Redzel should lead with Home Of The Brave sitting outside. Speed looks moderate.

Likely market trend: Classique Legend has to drift from $4.20. Looks a false fav considering the set up first up on a heavy track.

Selections: 3-2-4-6

3.Pierata- Smashed the clock first-up with some lightning closing splits (31.8 last 600m and home in 10.88- easily quickest of day). Drawn wide again the knock but how is pattern by this time of day? Excelled on wet Randwick in past.

2.Redzel- Track pattern key. Good win fresh albeit best part of track. This sets up really well for him leading without a lot of pressure on a wet track and he can easily win again.

4.Osborne Bulls- Nice trial, will run on strongly like usual. Wet should be OK. Fresh run last prep was super in Melbourne and first-up record is strong.

6.Classique Legend- Love him as a horse but I don’t think this is his race. His only defeat (albeit wide and working) was on a heavy track, secondly he is first-up on a testing track and thirdly he is a horse that carries condition and comes from a stable where they liked to build into a prep and not have them wound up fresh.

 

Race 7

Overview: Pretty even race this and track pattern on the day could be vital. Avilius (wide and hard to make ground) had excuses last start and getting back onto a heavy deck (where he is two from two) looks suitable. He gets another chance. What you see is what you get with Happy Clapper. He was good fresh and has trialled well since. His form over the mile at Randwick is strong and he just wants the track to dry a touch. Dreamforce and Samadoubt were both on the right part of the track last start but they bolted in and they probably just doesn’t want it too wet. Dreamforce ran second in a Doncaster but I still want to see him run a strong mile.  Verry Elleegant can improve but needs to.

Advice: Leaning to Avilius.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Dreamforce and Samadoubt look the two leaders here. They can control the tempo between them.

Likely market trend: No firm opinion.

Selections: 2-1-3-4

2.Avilius-. Avilius (wide and hard to make ground) had excuses last start and getting back onto a heavy deck (where he is two from two) looks suitable. He gets another chance.Out in price now.

1.Happy Clapper- What you see is what you get with Happy Clapper. He was good fresh and has trialled well since. His form over the mile at Randwick is strong and he just wants the track to dry a touch. Placed in A Doncaster on heavy ground.

3.Dreamforce- Wants the track to dry a touch. Dominant last time out. Still want to see him run a strong mile (Doncaster softly run). Has improved every prep!

4.Samadoubt- Won 2 from 2 this prep and hard to knock him! Very wet a query but dominant last start albeit right part of track on pace. Can he make it 3 in a row?

 

Race 8

Overview: He is not well off at the weights under the conditions of this race but I was taken by the first up run of Supernova and this looks a logical target if he gets a run. He is also in at Cauflield so which way does he go? The $7 seems acceptable and he was good off a very slow tempo first-up and the trial since (very slow time) was pleasing. Come Play With Me is very likeable here but $3.50 seems short enough. He beat all bar the subsequent Wyong Gold Cup winner in Wu Gok last start. He will be up on speed and hard to get past again. I loved the way Big Duke trialled leading into this. He will give them a big start but watch for him late. The wet track suits and he normally runs well fresh.

Advice: Supernova to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Fabrizio, Stampede, Come Play With Me and Finche all up there early. Speed looks genuine.

Likely market trend: Expecting the support to come for Supernova if he gains a start. I think he will start shorter than $6.50. Come Play With Me should drift out from $3.50.

Selections: 18-11-10-3

18.Supernova- 10.88 QL200 of day by 2L last start (off slow tempo). He is not well off at the weights under the conditions of this race but I was taken by the first up run of Supernova and this looks a logical target if he gets a run. He is also in at Cauflield so which way does he go?

11.Come Play With Me- Horse to beat and only knock is the price $3.50. He beat all bar the subsequent Wyong Gold Cup winner in Wu Gok last start. He will be up on speed and hard to get past again.

10.Big Duke- loved the way Big Duke trialled leading into this. He will give them a big start but watch for him late. The wet track suits and he normally runs well fresh. 2nd 1900m first up last prep Rhill. Has won heavy Rwick.

3.Sir Charles Road- Liked his two runs back. Found line well first up 60kg and then chopped out LS when running on late. Wet shouldn’t bother him (failed Heavy NZ but that was 3200m)

Other chances:

9.Stampede- Disap last start in Wyong Gold Cup but back on wet ground, has bolted in heavy Randwick past. Up on speed.

 

Race 9

Overview: I think this is a race in three between Prime Candidate, You Make Me Smile and Greyworm. Greyworm got the better of You Make Me Smile last start but the latter gets a 1.5kg swing in the weights and the in-form Tommy Berry goes aboard. He is also a heavy track winner at Randwick. Greyworm just draws off the track a touch but it might be OK by this time of the day. Prime Candidate didn’t run out the 1400m last start but back to 1200m here and it’s just a case of whether he handles the heavy ground. He didn’t trial that well on heavy ground earlier in his career but I don’t think he was going anywhere near as well as he is now. Star Reflection can run well at odds but I’m against Roheryn who I think has been a touch overrated by the bookies here.

Advice: Leaning to You Make Me Smile at the price.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Prime Candidate should lead with You Make Me Smile and Sweet Scandal ensuring the tempo is genuine.

Likely market trend: Expect the market to focus around Prime Candidate and Greyworm. Expecting You Make Me Smile’s price to hold or drift slightly.

Selections: 2-9-7-4

2.You Make Me Smile- Greyworm got the better of You Make Me Smile last start but the latter gets a 1.5kg swing in the weights and the in-form Tommy Berry goes aboard. He is also a heavy track winner at Randwick. Should lane outside Prime Candidate and run well.

9.Prime Candidate- didn’t run out the 1400m last start but back to 1200m here and it’s just a case of whether he handles the heavy ground. He didn’t trial that well on heavy ground earlier in his career but I don’t think he was going anywhere near as well as he is now. Think he is the best horse in the race.

7.Greyworm- Greyworm just draws off the track a touch but it might be OK by this time of the day. Strong through the line LS after disappointing behind Prime Candidate first-up.

4.Star Reflection- Good wet tracker. Freshen and a soft trial. She is a soft track winner at Randwick in the past.

Other chances:

13.Prophet’s Thumb- Really like her as a horse but worried about her on heavy ground? Got lost around Moonee Valley first-up.

Against:

14. Roheryn: Doubt he is a wet tracker and think he has been overplayed a touch in the market here.

 

 

 



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