Back to Expert Comment

Brad Davidson preview Canterbury August 211

 Aug 15 2019

Canterbury

Best bet

Race 6 no.5 Rock $2.20 (rated $2.05)

Good prep last time in- Beat home Kolding at the Kenso (although Kolding luckless) and win at Canterbury was big when on wrong part of track. Trialled well, horse on the up in a skinny race!

Normal strategy (75 units)

Race 2 no.14 Tears Are Falling 5 unit win at $10 and 10 unit place at $3.20

Race 6 no.5 Rock 45 unit win at $2.20

Race 7 no.8 Penshurst 2 unit win and 8 unit place tote

5 unit main quaddie (starts r4, 27.77%): 1st leg: 11-8-5. 2nd leg: 2-9. 3rd leg-5. 4th leg: 8-6-9.

Results: -178.4 units, (-5%POT, 3296 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (2.35 units)

Race 2 no.14 Tears Are Falling 0.2 unit win at $10 and 0.3 unit place at $3.20

Race 6 no.5 Rock 1.5 unit win at $2.20

Race 7 no.8 Penshurst 0.1 unit win tote and 0.25 unit place tote

Results: +3.28 unit profit, (3.3%POT, 98.4 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 

Good track, rail true

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

7/06/2017         Cant      TRUE     H8-9      Fence big advantage early and then evened out a bit more late                                                      

10/01/2018       Cant      TRUE     S6-5      Fair track this.                                               

9/02/2018         Canterbury         TRUE     G4         Fair track                                             

2/05/2018         Cant      TRUE     G4         A bit hard to make ground from the back  but could just off them. Pretty even across                                                  

27/06/2018       Cant      TRUE     S6          Needed to be on fence in run- 6/7 winners on fence in run                                               

8/08/2018         Cant      True      g3          Fence no disadvantage could make ground and wide but fence no disad                                                     

26/10/2018       Cant      True      S5          Pretty fair- on pace winners early then swooping late. No real lanes.                                                      

14/12/2018       Cant      True      S7          Had to be on fence in run at least and helped in st too. 18/24 placegetters entire night on fence                                                   

18/01/2019       Cant      True      G3         No real lanes but on pace helped here                                                      

8/02/2019         Cant      True      S7          Massive advantage to be on fence in run, on pace adv as well but could make ground still. Rain during night big storm.                
8/05/2019         Canterbury         True      G4         First two lanes and on pace an advantage. Hard to make ground out wide                                                     

19/06/2019       Cant      True      h8         Big adv to be fence in run- 6/7 winners and 15/21 top 3 placegetters fence run  

Assessment: Maybe a touch on pace and first few lanes? Fence in run only big advantage when wet for mine and it won’t be.                                             

Wind: Moderate westerly (pretty much head wind down back straight and tail wind home straight).

Race 1

Overview: Yao Dash has been well backed off some nice trials but he is probably short enough all the same at $2.30. I’ll lean the way of Colada as a result. He had his chance fresh but he comes through a race that rated the same as the benchmark 72 on the same day off a slower tempo. Jetski comes back as a gelding and also has claims here. He was good behind True Detective last prep when on the right part of the track.

Advice: Yao Dash on top but under my rated price.

Confidence: 4/10.

Speed map: Speed looks solid with Hemingfield and Petronius maybe the most likely to be right there with Colada and Yao Sing not far away.

Likely market trend: Yao Sing has been well supported in early markets. Do they keep coming for him? Hard to tell to be honest.

Selections: 3-6-5-1

3.Yao Dash ($2.80)- Def Time To Reign in trial pushed out (3-4l quicker Hemingfield trial same day and L600). The second to Athiri in trial- Seemed to struggle in ground but strong late. Nash on;

6.Colada ($6)- No match for Deference LS but good effort to grab second. Time same as B72 on day and they went much quicker early. 1st run as gelding there. Wide when beaten home by Jetski last prep.

5.Jetski ($7)- gelded- Disap before a break but may have been at end of prep. Good behind True Detective fresh when on best part of track (fence run big adv). Then on wrong part when close third. Hit line well two trials (latest trial 2L slower Hemingfield trial same day).

1.Petronius ($4.60)- Nice debut where just found one better. Time was solid on day. Recent trial good against little opposition and slow time. Jumps in first few, JMAC to ride. Tongue tie 1st time.

Other runners:

2.Hemingfield ($13)- Blinkers on- 3 trials- Won 1st won def All Cylinders, pushed along no impact second one, third one blinkers on sat outside leader and just battled. Happy Kid unraced going muh bertter. Should be prominent at least.

7.Foxy Rocket ($26)- Slow out and bumped LS before working home well (entitled too as race set up for run ons). Had chance prior in weakish race figures/form wise.

 

Race 2

Overview: Good race even with the scratching of Darling Point! Crystal Falls has the best form lines and the queries are whether she is looking for further and whether she appreciates wet ground. She did clock the quickest last 200m of the day fresh last start though. Tears Are Falling comes through a slick race at the provincials first-up and could be the overs here at $13. Art Collection will have her admirers off a fair Saturday race last time out. She just has the big weight and probably gives them a start here. Wondonna was too bad to be true last start and can also improve.

Advice: Tears Are Falling the value.

Speed map: Speed looks even with stablemates Mutual Admiration, Lakia and Pierro Rose all up there.

Likely market trend: Hard to predict here.

Selections: 14-2-1-6

14.Tears Are Falling ($7)- Good run fresh against a nice enough horse with form around Cosmic Force last prep. Time was solid and late splits were good. 1200m now- mum won 1200m. Overs?

2.Crystal Falls ($4)- QL200 of day on debut when on best ground then chased home before beat Athiri and chased home G Slipper winner. Far from disgraced Sires/Champagne. Two trials sound, latest sit and sprint. Better on wet ground the ?

1.Art Collection ($4)- Promoted to 2nd on protest. Bumped late in piece. Overall fogures not great but was Sat race. Wide gate now 59.5kg.

6.Bollywood ($10)- Form last prep just fair. 2 trials- closed off solidly. Asked for bit of effort in latest which was 1.5s quicker DP trial same day (mostly L600).

Other chances:

11.Wandonna ($16)- Good rom back in weak rating race first-up on day very hard to make ground then wide latest and didn’t handle track. Can bounce back but to what degree?

8.Lakia ($25)- Started long odds and faded only start last prep. Trialled better this time in- firs theat won in good time over short course Rwick, then sat wide second latwst trial 1050m in fair time. Betting?

Other runners:

4.Darling Point- Scratched. Huge run against the bias on debut when not fence in run- Big adv to be fence in run- 6/7 winners and 15/21 top 3 placegetters fence run on day! Didn’t handle occasion either. QL600 of day- overall race time slower than other mdn by about 3L and was set up for run on. Winner runner up Sat city race since. Won recent trial under hold in slow time. Mum 2 time G2 winner won up to mile.

7.Cesca ($50)- Two trials this time in-Went to line no pressure first one midfield, no impact second trial when 6th of 10 Rwick 1050 heavy.

9.Mutual Admiration ($32) - on speed in trial and won it holding off unraced stablemate The Swell in good time. Well beaten only trial last prep. 1X 735m trial?

10.Our Fraulein ($49)- Two trials- latest slow out hunted up pushed along late and no match for Lakia.

12.Bellarine- Scratched. Comes through good rating race fresh but pushed along and made no impact from midfield. $10-$13 there.

13.Lot’s Wife ($32)- Started $41 and never featured fresh. Finished alongside Bellarine.

15.Twice As Special- Scratched. Disapp on debut in weak rating race. Race rated much worse than TAF race on day.

16.Hairbrush ($99)- loomed and knocked up L200 last start. OK prior at Canberra- Doubt has the right form?

17.Pierro Rose ($25)- Run off feet first trial 735. Got to front and won well second trial in solid time Gosf 800m. Needs to lift on last prep.

18.Compatriot- Scratched. Won a trial leading in at Rhill in avg time. Blinkers off. Looks to have improved but needs to on last prep form.

19.Rainy Day ($70)- Needs to improve.

Race 3

Overview: Monegal has found good form of late and her winning time was a fair bit stronger than the race Flying Pierro’s comes through two back. Judge Judi probably strolls to the front here and is hard to run down and looks the danger.

Advice: Leaning to Monegal.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks moderate with Judge Judi likely rolling forward with Monegal and The Bald Eagle. Travancore should be midfield.

Likely market trend: No real view here.

Selections: 6-5-4-3

6.Monegal ($3.50)- better time than SR race last start and gets in light with claim again. Should be in first few and give a nice kick.

5.Judge Judi ($4)- Surprise winner fresh and then stuck on well last two in Sat grade. Back to midweeks, extra trip suits and she likes Canterbury (top 2 all 3 runs here). Rolls forward. Does she lead?

4.Flying Pierro ($6)- Going OK but just beaten by SR LS. Time wasn’t as strong as Monegal’s on da. 3rd to Commander since- Commander well beaten by Travancore prior? Tempo against on weekend. 4 day back up. Meets SR 1kg better off.Ell

3.Stryke Rock ($8)- Slow to recover first up and then bounced back LS wen race time 2L slower than Monegal’s on day (despite race being run 3.5L quicker early).

Other chance:

8.Kelvinside ($14)- Kept fresh- Good first up and then smart ride almost pinched it LS. Travancore easily had Watchdog covered last start? Just gets back>

Other runners:

2.Zaunkonig ($42)- 3 trials OK. Off a long break here. Fresh record good but he is first-up long time here

7.The Bald Eagle ($14)- Solid win two back but didn’t beat much and time similar to mdn on day. Latest 3WNC and wide on turn/bump in str but disapp.

9.Dream Habit ($165)- Hard to recommend.

 

Race 4

Overview: This Kiwi, Subpoenaed looks pretty good. She found the line better than Flit in a recent trial and she had X factor in her only win NZ. The form out of that race has been franked with the second horse winning a stakes race since. The only knock I could find is whether Canterbury brings her undone. I think Movie Role is the main danger, while Sangita also has claims  

Advice: Subpoenaed looks too classy for these. Whether she gets around Canterbury is the only worry.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Speed looks only moderate with Miss Scorcher rolling to the front. Sangita and Movie Role aren’t far away, while Supoenaed should be around midfield.

Likely market trend: Expect Subpoenaed to start short.

Selections: 11-8-5-4

11.Subpoenaed ($1.90)-Found the line just as well as Flit in a recent trial. Had X factor in only win NZ. Second horse won a stakes race since. Watch for her late. Onl 1l slower G3 on day.

8.Movie Role ($7)- Nice soft trial-Won at Rwick last prep, wide in MM and copped check 200m.. OK after that. How has she come back? Market?

5.Sangita ($7)- Solid win first-up but didn’t rte that well on clock. 2nd horse won 1/24 and third doesn’t look any star. 5th/6th won though at Taree/ Quirindi.

4.Miss Scorcher ($17)- just held on two back and then OK in city grade latest when faded out of. Won 1200m earlier career but not at this level? Rolls forward. Perhaps too wet LS? 3RD horse won since.

Other runners:

2.Ellie’s Encore ($50)- Capable on her day but disapp of late?

3.Zourhea ($25)- Got back in trial nd closed off OK. Sectionals good fresh Sat grade last prep in race where they walked but 1200m a bit short perhaps?

6.Nicconita ($16)- Got home well fresh but entitled to way race was run. Stays at 1200m now and gets back. Identical time Miss Scorcher on same day but MS went slower eto 600m and scooted home quicker.

7.Catwalk- Scratched. Resuming. Finished behind likes Movie Role, Subpoenaed in a recent trial but no asked for a real effort. OK on debut in fair race then wet track and clocked best l600 of day at Rwick (quicker than Deprive). Is she a wet tracker is the ? Form out of race hasn’t really stacked up but she was very good sectionally.

10.Miss Einstein ($35)- Held up and closed off solidly in good trial. Won mdn debut then came back and disap only run last prep  Figures say she needs to improve but naturally can third racing prep.

 

Race 5

Overview: Good race with three chances for mine- Catwalk, Don’t Leave Me Out and Versetto. I’m leaning to Catwalk due to the weight relief and the query is whether she is a wet tracker but her last 600m was very slick (quicker than Deprive’s) when winning at Randwick before a break. Don’t Leave Me Out was caught on the worst part of the track first-up and can bounce back, while Versetto’s race form is fair but he has trialled really well on a number of occasions leading into this race. He just has company up front here off a long break (Bjorn Baker gets them fit first-up though).

Advice: Only three needed for the quaddie for mine- 11-2-9.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Strong tempo expected with Bombarding, Versetto, Quick Nick, Oakfield Twilight and Our Dasha all up there.

Likely market trend: Don’t Leave Me Out should start a firm fav.

Selections: 2-9-1-5

2.Don’t Leave Me Out ($2.90)- Trialled well and then caught inf ground gfresh. Trial since strong in good time 33.2 home L600. Coughing before a break. Can bounce back.

9.Versetto ($4.10)-Blinkers off first time-Year long spell- Three impressive trials- Latest two big margins and good time. Gate 3, nice weight.

1.Bombarding($9)- Missed start, bussled forward to lead and tired late as a result. Trialling well prior. Has company here and fair shar eof weight

5.Kawaikini ($14)- Got back and closed off well LS after being held up. Weak form race though. Blinkers on now.1200 back to 1100

Other runners:

3.Military Academy ($23)- OK first up off long break but this looks to have more depth. Improvement second up you would expect.

4.Our Dasha ($14)- Nice soft trial win at Tamw- Fup since December-Won fup last prep albeit 900m Wellington. Pressure up front? Has won here.

6.Quick Nick ($15)- Been going OK without getting carried away. Looks a task

7.Wander ($35)- Bit disapp 2 back, held up and then ofound line late LS. Wide gate and this looks to have more depth.

8.Oakfield Twilight ($18)- Led home Redzel in recent trial. Only won 1 from 18 but form around Archedemus last prep reads OK. Placed 2 of 4 fresh.

10.Treasure Boss- Scratched. Raced yesterday. Racing well Southern Districts region. Prefer wet? In at Albury

11.Catwalk-Scratched. Resuming. Finished behind likes Movie Role, Subpoenaed in a recent trial but no asked for a real effort. OK on debut in fair race then wet track and clocked best l600 of day at Rwick (quicker than Deprive). Is she a wet tracker is the ? Form out of race hasn’t really stacked up but she was very good sectionally.

12.Camp Rifle-Scratched. Figures ok when winning on debut, 2md/3rd/4th all unplaced since.

Race 6

Overview: Hard to go past Rock here and he looks the horse on the up. His form lines last prep were very good for a race like this. He beat Kolding home last prep and his win here was very good at Canterbury when not on the right part of the track. Viceroy can run a race at odds here back in trip, while Calabasas caught the eye fresh but I’m not sure it’s the right race.

Advice: Rock to win.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even enough with Superbowl Sunday to roll along. Does Oneness go back? Sugar Dance could be just behind the leaders.

Likely market trend: Expect Rock to start a firm favourite.

Selections: 5-1-3-7

5.Rock ($2.05)- Good prep last time in- Beat home Kolding Kenso (although Kolding luckless) and win at Canterbury was big when on wrong part f track. Trialled well, horse on the up!

1.Viceroy ($12)-Disapp last start maybe too close or 1350m? Back to 1250m. Good in Ramornie prior not strongest race. Big weight, gets back.

3.Calabasas ($8)- Caught the eye fresh but wasn’t strongest race. Ov time same as 3YO Mdn despite race being run 6L quicker early. Entitled to run on

7.Superbowl Sunday ($11)- Good win two back In fair figures (2 subs winners), then worked early and caught late in much better ratimg race than one GS and Calabasas come through last start. Just has a bit of company here but can run race from front.

Other chance:

4.Oneness ($11)- Been a bit disapp this prep. 1500-back to 1250m. Do they ride quiet or roll forqard. Did run well from back earlier in prep. Reckon he prefers this trip.

Other runners:

2.Sugar Dance ($28)- Just fair here two back in weak race.Chased down by Handfast latest. Rolls forward but has company! 3rd/4th unpl LS.

6.General Soho ($23)- had chance latest but just not sure that What Could Be race is right form? Beat Hway winner Pat’s Nipper prior.

8.Coolotta- Scratched. Led and bit keen and tired late first up off long break. Needs to lift.

9.Dolly’s Due ($22)- Consistent midweek type- Got job done LS and second horse beaten 1.5L wf since. Set up for went very hard and slow L600. Weighted up to best with 57.5kg considering less weight B70 F+M last prep.

11.Ryhthmic Pulse ($56) Chased leader and kept going to score two back. Ran on latest in race where entitled to run on. Form out of race hasn’t been great to date.

14.American Salute-Scratched. Tempo against LS with the big weight but recent form just fair.

 

Race 7

Overview: Missybeel (scratched) goes up the 6kg in weight but she drops in grade as a result and she has the right form lines to be the one to beat here. She will get a good run midfield and should be strong late. I reckon Penshurst could be the big improver here. He pulled up with cardiac arrythmia fresh so put a pen through that. This isn’t an overly strong race, if he is going OK, he can run on at huge odds. Ulusaba is likeable but is no star, while Semper Fidelis can bounce back here on a much firmer deck.

Advice: Penshurst could start silly odds here.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks strong with likely leader Ulusaba, Semper Fidelis, Toulouse and Monasterio rolling forward.

Likely market trend: Ulusaba to start favourite. Penshurst could get out to silly odds.

Selections: 8-6-9-5

8.Penshurst ($20)- Didn’t finish first-up in Aus when found to have cardiac arrythmia. Finished off well enough in recent trial. Could improve massively here. Does he need further?

6.Ulusaba ($4)- Took sit last start and stuck on. Up 4kg on last start but going well. Wide gate speed inside? Sat back to miweek.

9.Semper Fidelis ($11)- Taken on two back forgive then stuck on OK LS. Drier track suits. Gets a 3kg swing on Missybeel LS.  Should have beaten SYW dr track earlier this prep.

5.Island Missile ($11)- Getting back onto firm track suits. Firs two runs OK then wet. Just a month between runs after being scr with elevated temp two weeks back?

Other runners:

1.Clevanicc ($13)-Tempo against two back and then ran on latest on soft ground. Does prefer it wet and has the 60kg here. 3rd horse LS won since. Has won this dist range and likes Cant.

2.Dalmatia Prince ($14)- Got back and worked to line OK ls on day where hard to make up ground. Won two races here. 3kg swing on Uliusaba.

4.Monasterio ($13)- Jumped OK went to front, then took sit, overraced, bumped on turn and then held up LS. Should have finished clear second. Only fair rating race. Want to see him relax.

10.Seel The Deel ($13)- Held up between 200-100m LS but wasn’t winning. Ov time 4L slower other mile race on day the ? Could be looking for further now. 3rd Carif 1850M last prep where peaked on run late.

11.Amthaal ($17)- Runner up all 3 runs this prep. Hard to line up country form. Placed when 1600-2200m at Doomben lastb prep.

12.Hoof Hustler ($34)- Made run a fair way out and maybe knocked up a touch second up. Still reckon wait to 2400m. Not strongest race he comes through.

13.Toulouse- Scratched. Stuck ON LS. Again just query whether that’s the form for this.

14.Lady Evelyn ($26)- Held on to score in blanket finish at provincials last start. 10 subs st out of race 3 pl. Again not sure right form line. Gets in very light though.

15.Terwilliker- Scratched.Struggled with the drop back in trip last start. Has had a tickover trial since which was OK. Back to 1900m now.

16.Lamma Hilton ($26)-Chased hard when tempo against at Coffs last starr. Overall fogures and form out of race fair? 9 subs st 3 pl). Restr room in str start prior.

17.Sensacova- Scratched. Just going fairly and now up tp 1900m. Unpl both runs this trip.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Canterbury August 211

 Email to friend   

       

Send to friend

Brad Davidson preview Canterbury August 211

Your Name *
Your Email *
Friend's Name *
Friend's Email *

Racing Search

Live Racing

International Racing

Upcoming International Racing on Sky

Tuesday 12th

Bet Now New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - Nrmnz Sires Stakes 3yo Final

Bet Now New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - Christchurch Casino Nz Cup

Bet Now New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - Granite Benchtop Co. Nz Trotting Ffa

Thursday 14th

New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - Christchurch Casino Nz Cup

New Zealand ADDINGTON
G1 - The Fitz Sports Bar Galaxy Sprint

View Sky International

Form Guide

Sports

Connect