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Brad Davidson preview Rosehill July 27

 Jul 24 2019

*** Randwick betting strategy to be added Saturday morning but preview below***

One play at Wyong Friday

Race 2 no.2 Dummy Run $8 ($8.50 when sent but will record at $8 so hopefully everyone can get that)

Half brother to Tarka who comes through some decent races in his first preparation. He is out of a Galileo mare and will get over a trip this time in so the 1350m fresh off a soft trial (no blinkers, they go on race day) looks a fair set up. The favourite in the race, Kusco Lad looks extremely short at $2.10 and I’ve marked him about $6 off what he has done to date. The second favourite, My Sweet Fish (WNC latest) looks the horse but at $8.50 happy to have something on Dummy Run. He should get a sweet run midfield and run home.

Normal strategy 

Wyong Friday

Race 2 no.2 Dummy Run 15 unit win at $8

Betting results since started on April 20: -11.9 units, -0.4%POT, 2661 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy

Wyong Friday

Race 2 no.2 Dummy Run 0.5 unit win at $8

Betting results since started on April 20: + 9 unit profit, (12%POT, 78.2 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Randwick preview: Heavy 8 expected rail true.

Best play

Race 7 no.3 Boss Lane to place (play tote as he will drift on race day).

Haunted looks the clear horse to beat here but I reckon Boss Lane is a great chance to run top 3. He is aout $3.30 to place now but I expect him to drift on race day like he normally does. I loved his late splits last time out when not suited back to 1100m at Rosehill. He loves Randwick, he gets through the ground and he looks a great chance to run second or third here.

History rail true:           

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

25/02/2017       Rand     TRUE     S6          On pace and on fence def adv                                                     

1/04/2017         Rand     TRUE     h8         Rail in run DYNAMITE (B4 TURN) fence/pace straight                                                   

27/05/2017       Rand     TRUE     s6          Perfect track                                                      

5/08/2017         Rand     TRUE     S6          Could run on OK but 2 horse width off + further best groun                                             

6/01/2017         Rand     TRUE     G4         Swoopers advantage 3-4 wide Hard to lead and win or be on pace near fence                                         

17/02/2018       Rand     TRUE     G4         Fair track early- wider the better later on                                          

7/04/2019         Rand     TRUE     G3         Hard to make ground a lot of day but no real pattern in terms of lanes                                             

26/05/2018       Rand     TRUE     G4         3 wide off and beyond best ground                                                      

15/09/2018       Rand     True      G4         Pretty fair track                                             

13/10/2018       Rand     True      H9         Adv to be on pace here most of the day. Lanes were fine- best groudn outside fence but only a few horses went there late                                                   

15/12/2018       Rand     True      S6-7      Fence not the place to be- 2-5 lanes and then wider later                                                  

26/01/2019       Rand     True      G3         Pretty fair track- some races felt like fence not best but three winners day on fence. No dis to be on speed prob touch on pace but could still run on 6/04/2019   Rand              True      s7          Pretty fair although I don't think hard fence was great. Could make ground               

25/05/2019       Randwick           True      g4/3      Rail was off for most of the day, lanes 3 and out best

Assessment: Pattern lately has definitely been away from fence. Pretty fair track otherwise.

Race 1

*** Not enough data to price efficiently

Overview: Mandela is getting a bit costly for punters. He was a bit disappointing last start but the inside gate didn’t suit and he was strung up in the straight. He drops back to 1200m here, gets the winkers on and should run well. I like the way Art Of Collection has trialled up heading into this. We must keep in mind the fact that the leader of the trial where he flashed home was under double raps but it was a nice effort all the same. Looks to have improved from last prep and doesn’t need to much. I thought Twice As Special found the line well in a recent trial and is a place chance here. Edison (missed the start in a recent trial) should roll forward if he jumps and give them something to catch.

Advice: A bit to play out here and market intel gives us a guide on how Art Of Collection/Edison are going and how good Twice As Special and Astralia are.

Confidence: 2/10.

Speed map: Below average tempo expected. Edison rolls forward (if he jumps), Mandela won’t be far away and Down To Earth and Honey Go Lightly shouldn’t be far away.

Likely market trend: Your guess is as good as mine here. Not sure what punters will do late.

Selections: 2-4-6-1

2.Art Of Collection- I like the way Art Of Collection has trialled up heading into this. We must keep in mind the fact that the leader of the trial where he flashed home was under double raps but it was a nice effort all the same. Looks to have improved from last prep and doesn’t need to much.

4.Mandela- Ran off the track on debut when going to win and then strung up when stepping out to 1400m from inside draw latest. Was never winning there but back to 1200m, winkers on, ges another chance.

6.Twice As Special- Found the line well in two trials. Likely to drift back but should be running on at the business end. Any support race day?

1.Edison- Missed the start in a recent trial- should roll forward if he jumps and give them something to catch. Only run OK but weaker race than this.

Other chances:

5.Astralis- Been running on well in a coiple of trials. Seemed to open short enough at $6.50 though?

7.Wandonna- Found the line well first-up on day very hard to make ground at Canterbury. Race time was slow overall there (3-4L slower boys division and all L600)

Other runners:

3. Down To Earth, 8. War Baron, 9. Honey Go Lightly.

 

Race 2

Overview: Hard to go past True Detective and he looks well placed. The two-year-old races from last season have been rating well in recent months and he gets the weight relief here. The wet track shouldn’t both him and he looks hard to beat. Misteed produced some solid sectionals from the back last start and looks second pick and one thing about her is she loves a wet track. Adana wasn’t far off Vegadaze first-up last prep but that was 1400m and he returns here over 1200m. He also missed the start in a recent trial.

Advice: True Detective on top but at his right price.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks at least even if not better with Miss Scorcher, Battle Guardian and Arthur In Charge all up there. True Detective should take a sit.

Likely market trend: I wouldn’t be surprised if they come for True Detective here. I think $1.95 is about right but he could start shorter.

Selections: 7-3-4-5

7.True Detective ($1.95)- Good effort fresh when just beaten by Spend. Rated better than benchmark race on day and he was strong late. 1200m a plus, wet track no issue, htb.

3.Misteed (8.50)- Really good fresh, disappointing second up but had excuses (2/5 lame) and then bounced back with a good run latest. Wet a plus, she loves it.

4.Adana ($9)- Trial was OK (although missed start). Close up to Vegadaze/ Ljungberg last prep fresh but that was 1400m? Wet track no issue.

5.Lifetime Quest ($15)- Runner up two runs this prep- Had his chance last start and had a pearler of a ride. WNC first-up and should have won. Reckons this has more depth and perhaps a touch overrated at this stage.

Other place chance:

2. Condemned ($15): Gelded. Yet to really live up to hype but can improve as gelding.

Other runners:

6. Miss Scorcher ($24), 8. Battle Guardian ($15), 9. Arthur In Charge ($59).

 

Race 3

Overview: Pretty even race and it will probably come down to how wet the track is. Heavy 8 or worse and it should play into the hands of Pelethronius who just loves wet ground and is thriving at a mile. I’m reluctant to ever take short odds about Gresham. He gets his chance here with a good map (likely leading off a soft speed) but he is very one paced and if he wins, it won’t be by much. Salsonic is the horse I would want to be on if the rain didn’t come. His last two runs have been super but his wet track form (particularly at Randwick) doesn’t get me excited. Our Winnie gets in with no weight on her back and will run on again.

Advice: Pelethronius gets his heavy conditions again.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks below average with Gresham and La Chica Bella the only two on pace runners.

Likely market trend: Expect the gap between Gresham ($2.80) and Pelethronius ($3.70) in betting to close up by race time.

Selections: 4-1-3-8

4.Pelethronius ($3.50)- Won his past two starts in good fashion. Up in grade again but mile, wet track, Randwick- that’s his pet set up. McEvoy on, gets to the righ part of the track.

1.Gresham ($3.50)- Gets right map, distance and gets through conditions. Just very one paced so I don’t suggest taking short odds.

3.Salsonic ($6.50)- Last two runs have been really good in stronger grade. Two knocks- lack of speed on paper (although he can probably be midfield) and his wet form (especially at Randwick) doesn’t read well.

8.Our Winnie ($9)- Getting home well last three starts. Going better than it looks on paper. Drifts back and runs on.

Other runners:

2. Sayed ($45), 6. Valentino Rossa ($9), 7. La Chica Bella ($29).

 

Race 4

Overview: Cracking Highway this but gee there are plenty of chances. Where to start? Let’s just go from the top down the field: I Am Capitan will love getting back onto a heavy track and he was home first-up in Highway company and then was good in benchmark grade, Irish Songs won in strong figures last start but was held behind Gumshoe and I Am Capitan prior, Anchois has trialled up well and has each-way claims,  Gumshoe worked in the run last start but won a Highway prior, Acquital gets the blinkers on and will appreciate the wet track, Zardoro should have won last start and is flying (freshened for drop back in distance), Festival Of Light has strung two good wins together at Dubbo and seems big odds, while Caccini made ground on the worst part of the track last start and not many did that at Randwick that day. Very tough race.

Advice: Many chances here. Take your pick below and speck a couple on race day perhaps that drift out to huge odds. The likes of Zardoro, Festival Light, Caccini should all get out to big odds.

Confidence rating: 1/10.

Speed map: Strong tempo expected as is the norm in Highways. Velvet Aeroplane, Gumshoe (blinkers off though and back in trip?), Moonshine Lady and Anchois should be up there.

Likely market trend: Hard to tell but I reckon the likes of Zardoro, Festival Light and Caccini could all get out to big prices late here.

Selections: 8-16-1-3

8. Zardoro ($12)- Going really well. Won well two back when set up for him and then should have won last start. 7 weeks between runs back to 1200m but has won an 1100m Hway.Wet track should be fine.

16. Festival Of Light ($25)- Won past two in convincing style. Sure this is much harder but time two back very good (1.2s quiker other race over 1200m on day, plus easily QL200 of meeting). Came from well back to score latest.

1.I Am Capitan ($7.50)- Looked home first-up (ouch as we were on at $10) and then good in benchmark grade latest. Back on wet track suits.

3. Irish Songs ($7.50)- Held behind I Am Capitan and Gumshoe two back and then produced good figures from back (some of best late splits of day) to score well latest. May have turned the corner?

Other chances:

5. Gumshoe ($11)- Good win two back and then worked hard latest when up in trip. Back in trip, blinkers off both suit.

19. Caccini ($14)- Thought she was really good behind Irish Songs last start. Back on inside which was clearly inferior ground on day. Loves a wet track.

4. Anchois ($14)- Trialled up well leading in. Sure to be on speed and give a kick first-up. Last 200m the ?

Other runners:

2. Equal Balance ($62), 6. Nicconita ($18), 7. Acquittal ($15), 9. Magic Search ($123), 10. Weather Channel ($30), 11. Maid Of Ore ($25), 12. Carruthers ($42), 13. Terra Reign ($62), 14. Velvet Aeroplane ($25), 15. Lady Demi ($21), 17. Moonshine Lady ($31), 18. Real Classic ($247).

 

Race 5

Overview: Great to see Roheryn back at the races but can I dive in at $1.40? The simple is no for two reasons- He is off a very long break and one soft trial on a wet track with no doubt improvement to come and the second reason is I’m quite convinced he is not a wet tracker. I know he won on debut on a wet track but Colombina ran quicker time than him on the day and I’m not convinced he will be at home in the conditions. Split Lip is the one I think is over the odds here. She has been wide at her past couple but her effort behind Victorem three back was a cracker. Sure, I’m not sure she will love the conditions either but she is at a big price and I think she will drift as well. Improvement should lead and give them something to catch and is also at a decent price.

Advice: Something small on Split Lip to win.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks OK in the small field with Improvement, Noble Joey and Best Guess pushing forward, with Isorich prominent as well.

Likely market trend: Roheryn just has to drift from $1.40.

Selections: 2-1-7-6

2.Split Lip ($10)- Wide last two and splits were almost as good as Victorem’s three back. Wet track is a genuine ? but she looks over the odds at $15. Seems to be two of her but she is capable of chiming in late.

1.Improvement ($7)- First-up off long break. Trialled well leading in (bit keen). Should lead and give them something to catch. Bit of company up front. Fitness?

7.Roheryn ($1.75)- Clearly the horse to beat and no doubt he is the most talented horse in the race but $1.40 seems skinny. First-up on a wet track off a long break with a big carnival to come (I’m not sure he handles a wet track either). I know he won on debut on a wet track but Colombina ran quicker time than him on the day and I’m not convinced he will be at home in the conditions.

6.Best Guess ($10)- Solid fresh but this looks harder. Looks unders in early markets for mine.

Other runners:

3. Dissolute ($47), 5. Noble Joey ($24), 8. Isorich($71).

 

Race 6

Overview: I thought Missybeel was over the odds here and I like the way she is going this prep. She was good off a slow tempo and on a very leaderish track last start where she was blocked for a run and should have finished much closer. Prior to that she finished second to subsequent Saturday city winner Pelethronius. Attention Run is the horse to beat and she has natural upside up this trip. She does have the huge weight to lump though. Our Winnie has been teasing of late but she hasn’t had a lot of luck. The 1800m looks ideal and she just wants the track to get back into the soft range. Light Exceed is improving but I’m against her here with good tempo in this race.

Advice- Can back Missybeel and Attention Run. Making Missybeel a bigger result though.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Strong tempo expected here with Toryjoy, Milseain, Light Exceed and Semper Fidelis all on pacers.

Likely market trend: I’m confident we get better than $6 about Missybeel on the day. I’m against Light Exceed I can’t get her near $4.40 and if you like her, I expect her to shop much better race day. Ditto Waking Moment.

Selections: 8-1-3-9

8.Missybeel ($5.50)- No luck last start off slow tempo and on day where you had to be on pace. Run prior beat all bar subsequent Saturday city winner. Won 1800m last prep and gets a 3.5kg swing on Light Exceed here. This is her chance.

1.Attention Run ($3.30)- Likeable win first-up in Aus. Took on the boys there and now back to own sex. Knock is the big weight and any issue second up in Aus? Horse to beat.

3.Toryjoy ($7.50)- Missed start last start forgive. Ear Muffs off here (ear muffs can lead to horse’s missing start). Company up front the knock but good win two back in weak form race. Can bounce back.

9. Waking Moment ($9.50)- A bit of a non winner for mine. I was on her last start and she was disappointing after getting every possible. Place chance though.

Other runners:

2. Milseain ($13), 6. Semper Fidelis ($17), 7. Curata Princess ($105), 9. Waking Moment ($9.50).

 

Race 7

Overview: Hard to go past Haunted and this looks a nice race for him. The wet track looks a plus and I thought he was pretty good in the Ramornie last start after missing the start. He will get to the outside here and run well. I thought there were a couple of decent place plays here in the shape of Boss Lane and Gala Moshea. Boss Lane just loves Randwick and I thought he was very good from the back when sharply back in trip last start. Gala Moshea was a sneaky run fresh and the wet track gives her a chance. She isn’t well weighted despite carrying 52kg and is up a long way in class (the 1300m a slight ? too) but it wouldn’t shock me to see her run on late. Fortensky will appreciate getting back onto a wet track and also has each-way claims.

Advice: Haunted to win and Boss Lane to place.

Confidence: 8/10.

Speed map: Speed looks moderate with Firsthand, Fortensky and Bangkok rolling forward. Does Milk Man roll forward too with blinkers on?

Likely market trend: Haunted looks the one they'll centre around. Boss Lane will drift so back him the place race day.

Selections: 2-3-4-9

2.Haunted ($2.50)- Missed the start in Ramornie but closed off strongly. Wet track record is strong and looks well placed here to sit midfield and be too strong late. Hard to knock.

3.Boss Lane ($12)- Super late splits in a very slow run race last start when back in trip. He is flying the 8yo. Much better horse at Randwick and wet track won’t bother him.

4.Fortensky ($6)- Really good when wide fresh and then just OK last start when back onto firmer track. Will appreciate another wet track.

9.Gala Moshea ($14)- Sneaky run first-up in a year where found traffic bit closed off well in fillies and mares benchmark 78. Up a long way in class here but loves a wet track. Actually ppoorly off at the weights due to rating despote carrying 52kg.

Other runners:

1. Firsthand ($8.50), 5. Milk Man ($12), 7. Super Tycoon ($201), 8. Bangkok ($10).

Race 8

Overview: Looks a two horse race here. Costello just got shuffled back in the run last start but he closed off well and you could make a case to say he should have won there. With that run under his belt, he should go close here. The best horse in the race for mine is Cyber Intervention. The knock is he just gets a long way back here but I reckon the track will be playing to the middle by this time of the day. He is a ripper and has all the upside in the world and will be charging to the line late. Matowi and Ulusaba are place chances, while On Angels Wings isn’t hopeless here as a rough place chance at odds. She loves wet tracks and caught the eye late last start.

Advice- Not much between Cyber Intervention and Costello. Track pattern key.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Speed looks even. Monsieur Sisu, Ulusaba and Pirate Ben roll forward.

Likely market trend: Cyber Intervention’s runs have been too obvious to drift too much in betting. Costello will stay firm. I reckon the rest drift.

Selections: 7-6-12-10

7.Cyber Intervention ($3.50): The best horse in the race for mine is Cyber Intervention. The knock is he just gets a long way back here but I reckon the track will be playing to the middle by this time of the day. He is a ripper and has all the upside in the world and will be charging to the line late.

6. Costello ($5)-just got shuffled back in the run last start but he closed off well and you could make a case to say he should have won there. With that run under his belt, he should go close here.

12.Matowi ($11)- Super consistent prep. Just had nothing to take him into race out wide last start but was brave. No weight on his back again.

10.Ulusaba ($11)- Sat off hot speed latest and held them at bay.

Roughie:

13.On Angels Wings ($40)- Caught the eye late behind Pelethronius. Would have loved a heavy 10 but if still genuine heavy, place chance at odds.

Other runners:

1. Hogmanay ($18), 2. Primitivo ($11), 3. Monsieur Sisu ($27), 5. Pirate Ben ($40), 8. The Bandit ($80), 9. Exasperate ($20), 11. Island Missile ($80).

Race 9

Overview: I like the set up for The Party Girl here down on the minimum with Kerrin McEvoy to ride. She savaged the line in Saturday grade last start and the wet track won’t bother her here. It’s a pretty open race though and there are several chances. Thy Kingdom Come improves but may need one more, the wet track brings No Escape into it, Jack’s Bar has claims but looks too short in early betting (1400m?), Drachenfels is always capable but I can’t keep falling into him and Judge Judi will appreciate the extra trip and keep battling away on speed. Shock Alert can improve, while Slow Burn gets the blinkers on but has just been going fairly (wide no cover last start).

Advice: The Party Girl each-way.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Hard race to assess speed wise. Judge Judi, Jack’s Bar and potentially Shock Alert roll forward. No Escape can be prominent too.

Likely market trend: Jack’s Bar has to drift for mine. Looks very open this race though.

Selections: 11-2-1-10

11.The Party Girl ($5)- down on the minimum with Kerrin McEvoy to ride. She savaged the line in Saturday grade last start and the wet track won’t bother her here. I don’t think she comes through the best form line but it’s just the weight and how consistent she is. She has just been so consistent. Wet track no issue, 1400m perfect. Scratched from Wednesday for this.

2.Thy Kingdom Come ($6.50)- Solid fresh in good rating race. Better for that. One more? Wet seems OK although yet to place five starts Randwick (some OK runs here though).

1.Drachenfels ($7.50)- Blinkers again. Wanted to lay in last start. Has a nice finish on day but reckon he might be better at start of prep? Wet OK.

10.Judge Judi ($9)- TPG got past her late last start but she kept boxing on. Should do the same here, extra trip suits and wet track should be OK.

Other runners:

3. Slow Burn ($30), 4. Danawi ($22), 5. Jack’s Bar ($7.50), 6. No Escape ($15), 7. Shock Alert ($22), 8. The Enzo ($45), 9. Metamorphic ($18)



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Rosehill July 27

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