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Brad Davidson preview Canterbury July 24

 Jul 23 2019

Canterbury July 24

***All prices are prior to scratchings and deductions apply

Best each-way

Race 7 no.8 Weekend Affair $7.50 and $2.50

Next best

Race 5 no.2 Black Magnum

Best roughie

Race 6 no.1 Kool Vinnie $19 and $5 (also making Bull Market and Kaiwakini winners in this race)

 

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

 The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (125 units)

Race 2 no.11 Wandonna 5 unit win at $7.50

Race 3 no.5 Monegal 5 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.7 Ivy’s Court 2 unit win and 3 unit tote

Race 5 no.2 Black Magnum 20 unit win at $2.60

Race 6 no.2 Bull Market 10 unit win at $4.40

Race 6 no.1 Kool Vinnie 5 unit win at $17 and 10 unit place at $4.80

Race 6 no.8 Kawaikini 5 unit win at $12 and 5 unit place at $3.80

Race 7 no.8 Weekend Affair 20 unit win at $7.50 and 20 unit place at $2.50

5 unit multi -Race 3 no.5 Monegal to place ($2) into Race 6 no.8 Kawaikini to place ($3.50) into Race 7 no.8 Weekend Affair to place ($2.50)

10 unit quaddie (starts r4, 10%)- 1st leg: 8-12-7-5-11. 2nd leg: 2. 3rd leg: 1-2-8-11-13. 4th leg: 8-1-6-4

Quaddie to come race day.

Betting results since started on April 20: +104.7 units (4%POT, 2336 unit outlay)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

 Long game strategy (4 units)

Race 3 no.5 Monegal 0.25 unit win at $5

Race 4 no.7 Ivy’s Court 0.1 unit win and 0.1 unit place tote

Race 5 no.2 Black Magnum 0.5 unit win at $2.60

Race 6 no.2 Bull Market 0.25 unit win at $4.40

Race 6 no.1 Kool Vinnie 0.25 unit win at $17 and 0.3 unit place at $4.80

Race 6 no.8 Kawaikini 0.25 unit win at $11 and 0.25 unit place at $3.50

Race 7 no.8 Weekend Affair 0.75 unit win at $7.50 and 0.75 unit place at $2.50

Race 7 no.4 Zoffany’s Lad 0.25 place tote

Betting results since started on April 20: +11.4 unit profit, (17%POT, 68.45 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Track: Good track expected, rail out 6m.

History rail out 6m

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

11/01/2017       Cant      6M+      G4         Fair but on pace helped                                          

9/09/2017         Cant      6m        G4         On speed favours- fence OK but got wider later but fence still OK                                            

5/01/2017         Cant      6m        G4         On speed favours-Hard to make ground as a whole but not impossible.                                            

2/01/2018         Canterbury         6M        G4 off but S              Fence and then on pace a big advantage                                    

21/02/2018       Cant      6m        S7-6      Fair track                                                 

5/06/2018         Cant      6m        H8         On pace adv. Tough to make ground                                      

25/07/2018       Cant      6m                      Fence and on pace massive bias                                              

29/08/2018       Cant      6m        G3         Pretty fair track this. Maybe hard fence not the best place to be.                                                 

9/01/2019         Cant      6m        S7          Quite few winners pace.fence but good runs out wide too. Seemed to be able to sit 3WNC. On pace helped overall                                     

1/02/2019         Cant      6m        S6          Med adv on pace rail but could make ground and could win out wide still.     

22/02/2019       Cant      6m        S7          No real lanes just hard to make ground as a rule                  

5/06/2019         Cant      6m        s6          Pretty fair track             

Assessment: Generally hard to make ground in this rail position.

 

Race 1

*Not enough data for rated prices.

Overview: Hard to go past Coco Cuber and I really like the style in which he won a recent trial by 4L. He looks the hardest to beat on that. Savoury found the line well in a recent Randwick trial and it was the quickest 1050m heat of the day. Jailbreak best of the rest.

Advice: Leaning to Coco Cuber but probably at his right price all the same.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 1-10-6-3

1.Coco Cuber- Jumped OK in trial went forward and led and won in solid time by 4L. 2ND AND 3RD both unraced but hard to knock on that trial.

10.Savoury- Got back and closed off solidly latest trial at Randwick. Quickerst 1050m heat of morning. Must consider.

6.Jailbreak- Blinkers off, gelded.. Closed off well to win recent Hawk trial. Form last prep solid, went to hard at Hawkesbury then bumped into subs G1 placegetter before a break.

3.Deterge- Out back in two recent trials and closed off OK. Gelded. Would need to improve on last prep.

Other runners:

2.Courageous- Scratched. Ran at Wyong yest,Drawn off the track-Runs at Wyong?

4.Down To Earth- Blinkers 1st time, tongue tie 1st time. Two trials this time in-Pushed along and beaten 7L by Coco Cuber latest trial.

5.Faethm- Won first heat in slowest time of morning and then got back and closed off solidly for third second heat under some pressure.

7.Leo- Scratched.Got back but closed off well Ncle in QL400 of the day. $6.50-$4.80 there as well. Extra trip should suit.

8.Luvoir- Won latest trial against two rivals- Two trials prior just OK. Place perhaps?

9.Napster- Got back, under riding and closed off latest trial at Hawkesbury OK. Lugging bit 1st time.

Race 2

*Not enough data for rated prices

Overview: Tricky race. Wandonna wasn’t far off a subsequent Group 1 winner on debut last prep (entitled to run on due to race shape) and the trials leading in have been pleasing. She probably looks the value here. Bound To Win has trialled up very impressively for her debut and the only knock is she is well found by the market. Enamour chased home a nice enough horse last start and has trialled well since.

Advice: Wandonna looks the one at odds ready to run well but tricky race.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 11-2-3-9

11.Wandonna- Loved the way she closed off on debut behind a G1 winner. Set up but finished off well. Like the two trials and the way she has closed off this prep. Rail put 6m can you make ground?

2.Bound To Win- Sat wide and won first trial with leg in air in solid time. Got back off speed closed off very well latest trial to score again. Looks promising.

3.Enamour- Won a Rwick 1045m trial in good fashion since 2nd to Lanigera on debut. Exyra trip should help. Might need touch of luck from 1?

9.Shuhood- Blinkers 1st time0 Three trials-  Won latest with blinkers added, showed speed, held on under pressure. Time OK. Trials prior just fair.

Other runners:

1.Best Stone- Scratched. Covered ground first-up but just fair late. Race much quicker other 1000m race on day but that was tempo related.

4.Karariko Village- Led latest trial and pushed along to finish third at Rwick. Tricky draw here but has speed.

5.Living Rocks- Jumped well, went back and closed off OK under little pressure when 6/8 Rhill trial recently. Betting?

6.Mooy- Blinkers 1st time- No blinkers latest trial when slow out, ridden along and beaten a long way.

7.Our Bellagio Miss- Back in only trial and just battled. Pushed along in straight when 5th WF 800.

8.Press Week- Scratched. Ran on solidly first-up from the back. Thought enough of her to run in a Gimcrack last prep. Wide draw?

10.Smart and Sassy- Scratched.beaten 8L first trial by Bound To Win closed off well latest trial for third Rwick 735m.  Winkers 1st time. Trial time OK,

12.What’s The Deel- Pushed out when 2nd in field of three recent Hawk trial.hard to have on that.

13.Mistress Mouse- Trialled well and then went to race and was disappointing  fresh. Report was further and drier and gets both of those here.

14.Sweeping Statement- Blinkers 1st time. Resuming- no public trials- Needs to lift on last prep.

15.Swiss Mistress- Scratched.Blinkers 1st time- Hard to have.

16.Segrill- two trials-3rd in both beaten a couple of lengths. Needs to lift.

Race 3

Overview: Monegal finds her right race to go close and she has been good at her past couple in Saturday city grade. She was shuffled back last start but found the line well, while she was on the wrong part of the track two back. Moana Jewel won well last start and the time boded well to the other two 1350m races on the day (at least 1.3s quicker). Missybeel will be running on like last start, while Helga sat wide and was too good fresh but there is more depth here.

Advice: Leaning to Monegal.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 5-4-1-8

5.Monegal ($3.80)- Shuffled back but closed off well LS. Worst part of track but closed off solidly start prior too. 2 wins have come at this distance. Gets another chance.

4.Moana Jewel ($5)- Back in trip and far too good latest Time was good. At least 1.3s quicker other two 1350m races. WNC two back forgiving. Gets claim but gate 1 will need luck.

1.Missybeel ($7)- never in it fresh but much better from the back latest. Winner has won a Sat race since. Tactics for ward or back? Race set up for a swooper latest and was on best part track.

8.Black And Tan ($8.50)- Good win at Scone and then good from back last two. Doubt was on best part of track latest when Missybeel got past her late.Drier track a plus. All 3 wins good decks.

Other runners:

2.I’m Pretty Strong ($20)- OK fresh and then never in it second up. Needs to lift.

6.Celtic Love ($13)- Tickover trial closed off OK late. Finished off well last tow starts. Just gives them a start here. Enough speed for her?

7.Southern Romance ($13)- Well held behind Helga last start. OK prior but weak time/ rating race.

9.Emerald Earth ($26)- overcame a slow tempo to score LS. 2nd horse finished 4th in town since. Overall figures just fair.

10.Light Exceed ($34)- Brokethrough LS. Win was 12L quivker than the B64 on the day (all tempo). 2nd horse yet to win in 8 starts? 1600m natural progression.

11.Semper Fidelis-Scratched.Waller after last start-it will be his intention to bring Semper Fidelis back in distance whereby it will be the intention to have the mare lead and hopefully be able to finish off the race strongly. Rolls forward- Last couple disappointing but should have beaten So You Win earlier this prep.

Race 4

Overview: Tricky race. Happy to have a throw at the stumps with Ivy’s Court. She has been struggling on heavy tracks of late but she has a great record at this track and distance and she draws to do no work in the run here. I just thought she might jump out of the ground at odds. Seeingisbelieving bolted in last start and chased home a subsequent Saturday city winner prior. The only knock is the little niggle over 1900m? Ulusaba can only run well, while Watchdog got all the favours last start and is on trial at the trip.

Advice: Ivy’s Court the value but confidence low here.

Confidence: 3/10.

Selections: 8-12-7-2

8.Seeingisbelieving ($4)- No match for Dylan’s Romance two back (has since won a Sat city race) but bolted in in good figures at Scone LS with 61,5kg.

12.Ulusaba ($4.50)- Last two runs this t/d been strong. Tactics fascinating with speed inside. Do they roll forward or take a sit. Not far off Attorney/Matowi latest.

7.Ivy’s Court ($12)- Struggling on the heavy tracks of late but beaten less than 4L behind Nicci’s Gold four back. Won 2/3 this t/d. Improving track, suck draw, fit.

5.Semper Fidelis ($10)- Just battled last couple but back in grade here. Firmer track should suit as well. Should have beaten So You Win four back.

Other runners:

1.Our Gravano ($23)- OK from back LS in race where entitled to run on. Fitter third up. Prefers wet? Has won this t/d.

3.Braces ($19)- OK from back LS. Top 3 5 of 7 this t/d. Prefers wet but OK on dry as well.

4.Dalmatia Prince ($14)- Struggled in the heavy LS. Has won this t/d. Well backed two back when had chance.

6.Hand It In-Scr.- Sat o/side leader and kept on going LS when up sharply in trip. Good win. This is another level but has won 2200m at Scone.

9.Penshurst ($29)- Former French galloper having first run in Syd. Long spell, first up since March last year. One trial, four week break and then another trial at Hawkesbury when pushed along 3rd/4. Betting?

10.Conatiminated ($12)- Hard to knock- Form has been very strong in Canberra and has won 4 of 7. Big win latest, 2nd has finished runner up twice since. Time OK. First crack 1900m but company up front. 8th run in first racing prep?

11.Spooky Wooky ($14)- Thought the run was good fresh when on worst part of track. Close third this t/d third up last prep. Fit enough second up?

 

Race 5

Overview: I know he has drawn wide but I thought the $2.80 was a touch generous for Black Magnum. He was outstanding first-up and the drier surface should be OK despite the fact he has had knee surgery (there should still be genuine give in the track). The gate is messy but there is speed inside and he should get back and finish over the top. Transmitter, All Too Free and Bombarding look the logical threats but with even luck, Black Magnum should be hard to beat again.

Advice: Black Magnum to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 2-12-10-8

2.Black Magnum ($2)- Looks a promising horse. Outstanding win first-up in strong figures. Set up for him to run on but he was far too good. Dry track should be OK but had knee surgery. Gate perhaps only issue rail ut 6m but hoping get cover 3rd to 6th.

12.Transmitter ($8)- No match for Black Magnum LS and on wrong part of track at Rosehill two back. 2KG swing on Black Magnum, doubt its enough. Good track a positive.

10.All Too Free ($8)- Two soft trials off a long break. Best late splits of race over 1100m fresh last time in. Runs on. Market push?

8.Secret Lady ($11)- Soft trial coming in. Former good 2YO who is returning off a long spell.Struggled only run last prep but good 2yo form.

Other runners:

3.Fortification-Scratched. blinkers 1st time. Hard to have in this grade.

4.Black Chilli ($28)- Won two back on H10 but form either side just OK. Needs to lift.

5.Star Crossed ($19)- Not far away two back and then got back and never got into it LS. Can settle closer from the gate and improve here.

6.Zidane ($23)- Soft trial coming in. Horse that won first-up this t/d last prep in weaker race than this.Can’t say no.

7.Clear The Beach ($113)- Hard to recommend.

9.I Am Magnificent-Scratched- Bungled the start when jumped in the air and jockey lost use of iron momentarily- Horse that I on speed normally and thought he finished off OK considering. Rolls forward and can run a cheeky race.

11.Sedition ($28)- Got back and closed off OK first-up. Forward or back? Gate makes it tough.

13. Virgilio ($50)- Just going OK.

 

Race 6

Overview: I like this race from a betting perspective and I’m happy to back three horses. Firstly, I think Kool Vinnie is big odds here at $19. He was disappointing first-up but it was a wet track and who could forget his win at Rosehill last prep where he knocked off Redouble (Magic Millions Cup winner later that prep). Hard horse to catch but at the right odds to speck. The other two I will back are Bull Market and Kawaikini. Bull Market has trialled up well heading into this and can only run well on the drying track, while Kawaikini has just been bogged down on wet tracks of late and jump out of the ground here.

Advice: Backing the three horses here- Kool Vinnie, Bull Market and Kawaikini (see betting strategies above for plan).

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 1-2-8-11

1.Kool Vinnie ($10)- Disapp first-up but he is better than that. Has a good turn of foot on his day. Too wet fresh? Has the big weight but speed on to suit. Can you make ground? Won  here 2nd up 3 preps back 1250m S6. 2 subs winners out of this race already.

2.Bull Market ($3.80)- Like the way he closed off in recent trial. Two wins came over a mile last prep but capably running a big race fresh. Drying track def helps. Just missed first up 1200m WF two preps back.

8.Kawaikini ($9)- Found the line well fresh off a very slow tempo (2nd QL600 of race) and then bogged down on wet tracks last two starts. Better on dry. Gate 1? 12 runs/557 DLW.

11.Riviera ($6)- Ran on solidly fresh but entitled too considering the pace of race (slow L600). Winner has won well in town since and 2nd horse won well too. Can improve.

Other runners:

3.Sugar Dance ($15)- Has a good tecord in country- Won 7 of 21 all up. Has company here. No subs winners 23 starters last two races. On speed.

4.Amanito ($63)- out the back and not asked for effort recent Gosf trial. 1200 too short? Won 1300m on debut but never raced below that.

5.Isorich ($21)- 27 starts or 662 days since last win. Draws well and gets a claim. Recent runs just fair. Beat Kool Vinnie home comfortably two back.

6.Celer-Scratched. Blinkers 1st time- Won three back at Gosford thereabouts last couple. Latest race  .8s slower than mdn on day. Wide draw?

7.Vinnie Power ($10)- Taken a while to find feet this prep but better last cpuple. Gets another chance/  Drops 4kg but up in grade and takes on the boys.

9.Go The Gantry-Scratched. Nothing between this horse and Sugar Dance at Dubbo back in May-Gets a 4kg swing on Sugar Dance.

10.Bel Diablo ($13)- Building a nice record- Won 4 from 15 now. Was .7s slower than the 1100m open race and late splits were much slower than that winner. Still gave second and third weight. 3rd horse won at Mudgee since.

12.No Interest ($21)- Struggling on wet tracks this prep. Can improve sharply here back onto a dry deck.

13.Arleta ($63)- No match for Bel Diablo and then too good at Mudgee. Another level here. Bel Diablo gets a 3.5kg swing for beating this horse home.

 

Race 7

Overview: I know he has had a few chances but gee the $8.50 looks a silly price about Weekend Affair here. His run was much better than it looked last start off a very slow tempo and he clocked the quickest last 600m of the day there. He hasn’t had a lot go right this prep but Tim Clark going on is another plus and I think he will go close here. Pembroke Castle looks the danger, while Knowitall Jack could appreciate the extra trip but seems skinny in early markets? Zoffany’s Lad can run on late first-up at good odds as well.

Advice: Weekend Affair each-way. Could speck Zoffany’s Lad the place too.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 8-1-6-4

8.Weekend Affair ($6)- Hasn’t had a lot go right lately but is going well this prep. Tempo against LS when QL600 of day. Held up two back, chopped out three back. T Clark on.

1.Pembroke Castle ($5.50)- Too wet perhaps LS. Just beaten by Condor prior. First crack 1550m. Drying track helps.

6.Knowitall Jack ($5)- Started favourite off a freshen and had his chance? On trial at the trip. Only won a mdn to date?

4.Zoffany’s Lad ($10)- Freshened- won a recent Gosd trial in strong fashion. Wrong part of track two back. Can be quite keen so mile is good. Beaten 2.5L behind Archedemus first up last prep.

Other runners:

2.Flying Pierro ($14)- Back in trip and too strong LS defeating two subs winners (3rd and 6th won since). Seems to be his right trip. 3 from 5 at this distance, only three wins overall.

3.McMahon ($12)- Well supported LS got back off slow tempo but far too good late. Not sure what he beat and form prior just fair? 2nd horse won 1 of 9 and third horse beaten similar margin Moruya start prior.

5.Andaz ($23)- Too bad to be true LS.Trialled well enough since. Wide gate, roll forward?

7.Jarrett ($17)- Very soft lead LS and hung on. 12l slower 1600m mdn on day (tempo related but still).

9.My Blue Jeans ($23)- In right spot at right time last start to score.Drying track looks against. Hway form?

10.Aristograts ($69)-Struggled with the big weight LS but was a good winner at SC two back. Didn’t break 13s L200 last start. Should be getting home all the same.

 



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