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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 17

 Jul 16 2019

*** Prices for Rosehill to come Saturday. Please note selections for Rosehill may be altered due to unsure what track conditions will be****

*** CHECK BACK IN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING FOR MORE PLAYS (WAITING ON TRACK CONDITIONS FOR GOSFORD AND ROSEHILL

 

Best each-way bet of the weekend

Gosford Friday

Race 4 no.4 He’s A Given $8 and $2.30 (rated $4.50)

Just seems the wrong price here and I’ve marked him closer to $4.50. He absolutely loves wet tracks and the forecast is for rain and more rain at Gosford today. His recent midweek city form is superior to these and the last time he was on a heavy track he defeated a subsequent Saturday city winner in The Party Girl. The gate is sticky, I would love to see them roll forward early but even from the back he will be hard to hold out. The odds-on favourite Arrogante gets an easy run on speed but his figures of late haven’t been anything to write home about and it shouldn’t be $1.95 v $8. Great value bet here.

 

Rosehill August 31

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2.5 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2.5 units). A max 2.5 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy

Gosford Friday

Race 4 no.4 He’s A Given 35 unit win at $7.50 and 35 unit place at $2.20 (recorded below $8 when sent)

Race 8 no.3 Mocassin Miss 7 unit win at $9 and 13 unit place $3.10

Rosehill

Race 7 no.6 Maddi Rocks 25 unit win at $4 (locked in Wednesday night)

Results: -121.4 units (-3.3% POT, 3576 units outlayed)

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Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy

Gosford Friday

Race 4 no.4 He’s A Given 1.25 unit win at $7.50 and 1.25 unit place at $2.20 ($8 and $2.30 when sent out)

Race 8 no.3 Mocassin Miss 0.3 unit win at $9 and 0.5 unit place at $3.10  ($10 and $3.30 when sent out)

 

Rosehill

Race 7 no.6 Maddi Rocks 1 unit win at $4 (locked in Wednesday night)

Results: +5.875 units (5.5% POT, 106.7 units outlayed).

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Think! About your choices.

 

Rosehill

Wet track to what degree I'm not sure- Rail out 3m.

History:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

22/09/2018       Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair track this. No disadv to be off pace and wide but could win on pace fence first six races at least                                             

10/11/2018       Rhill      3            G4         Pretty fair re lanes. On pace slught adv as always good track racing                                                      

1/12/2018         Rose      3m        G4         Fence inferior here. 3-6 the place to be. Seemed ok to sit 3wnc even without cover. Too many ran well doing so                                                  

2/02/2019         Rose      3m        S7          Pretty fair track re lanes and could run on although on pace slight adv

23/03/2019       Rosehill 3m        H9         A few off fence in run here and wider. Not easy to make ground                                        

1/06/2019         Rosehill 3m        G4         Pretty fair track although got wide last 3-4 races. Fence in run seemed adv but not everything.             

13/07/2019       Rosehill 3M        h8         Pretty fair track this- Probably sl adv wider again but could win near fence                      

Assessment: Wider the better here on the wet track. Expect them to get to middle. Wide gates no issue late in day.

Race 1

Overview: Pretty deep Highway this. What do we do with Assault’n’bathory. He pulled up lame last start and has been a late scratching since after being found to be lame on track before the race. He performed well in a recent jump out and has pulled up with no issues and he gets a softer time on speed here. The booking of Nash Rawiller is a huge plus too. Girls Are Ready did enough fresh over the 1080m and she probably should have won over 1400m at Eagle Farm last prep (it wasn’t a strong race though). The key with her is she loves wet ground. Lady Demi had no luck at all at 1100m at Randwick last weekend but now goes sharply to 1400m, while Vertex, Scarlet Missile and Gunga Din all have claims.

Advice- Assault'n'bathory the horse to beat but Vertex the value if ready fresh.

Confidence: 5/10.

Speed map: Speed doesn’t look hectic as is normal for Highways. Expect Assautl’n’bathory to lead with Yarrinup Flyer and Real Classic right there.

Likely market trend: All depends on weather!

Selections: 1-3-8-15 (subject to change with weather unpredictable)

1.Assault’n’bathory-35 days between runs. He pulled up lame last start and has been a late scratching since after being found to be lame on track before the race. He performed well in a recent jump out and has pulled up with no issues and he gets a softer time on speed here. The booking of Nash Rawiller is a huge plus too. Wet track looks fine and he has been really brave on pace of late.

3.Girls Are Ready-did enough fresh over the 1080m and she probably should have won over 1400m at Eagle Farm last prep (it wasn’t a strong race though). The key with her is she loves wet ground.

8.Vertex-Blinkers on first-up. Fresh record sound- Last time blinkers went on second in a Highway when closing off. Wet suits. Could be overs here.

15.Isadora Twinkle -Disapp last start but should have almost won two back on wet ground. Meets Scarlet Missile 7kg better from that day and Assaultnbathory 5kg better off.

Other chances:

5.Lady Demi -No luck at Randwick last start over 1100m. 1400m first time? Wet OK. Going well.

7.Scarlet Missile -Rarely runs a bad race. Wet track no issue.

17.Gunga Din- Didn’t beat much at Canberra first-up (8 subs st 0 pl from race) but loved the stride on him and looks to have improved. Could be on the up.

Other runners:

2. No Emotion,4. Eurosay, 6. So It Is, 9. Yarrinup Flyer, 10. Fortune’s Path, 11. Real Classic, 13. Well Decorated, 14. Defy, 16. Miss Charlie, 18. Who’s Shout, 19. Jellies.

 

Race 2

Overview: I know she was a bit disappointing last start but back on wet ground with a more aggressive ride can see Wimlah turn her form around here. She just got shuffled back last start but expect them to be more aggressive here. See Me Exceed did go past Wimlah like she was standing still last start and could be a bit of value here at $18? She also beat home Helga and Waking Moment in the meantime. That was a surprise performance though and she hasn’t been tried on a proper wet track (predicting heavy on Saturday). Re Edit and Zalatte run on as well.

Advice: Leaning to Wimlah if wet, See Me Exceed looks the value if not too wet.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Speed looks below average with Helga and Wimlah to dominate.

Likely market trend: Expecting Wimlah to start favourite here. See Me Exceed should trim up off the last run if dry?

Selections: 7-6-1-5

7.Wimlah- She was a bit disappointing last start but back on wet ground with a more aggressive ride can see Wimlah turn her form around here. She just got shuffled back last start but expect them to be more aggressive here and be outside lead. Good run behind Subedar prior. Wet suits.

6.See Me Exceed- Was last start a fluke? Went past Wimlah, Helga and Waking Moment there. No wet form but could be overs.

1.Re Edit- Trialled well and should be hitting the line hard fresh with bigger things in store later. Won mdn heavy but reckon she prefers it dry? How much rain do we get?

5.Helga- On pace favours- Seemed to have chance last start. Gets through rain affected ground.

Other chance:

4.Zalatte- Capable fresh (first up run last prep was good in stronger grade) but she doesn’t want it too wet.

Other runners:

2. Lady Cuvee, 3. Slow Bur, 8. Song And A Prayer, 9. Seles, 10. Rossmay 11. Waking Moment, 12. The Promise, 13. Le Lude.

 

Race 3

Overview: Thy Kingdom Come was a dominant winner fourth up last prep and maybe he was just half a run short last time out. He should roll forward here and the rain affected track shouldn’t bother him. Pelethronius was a bit disappointing last start but he normally loves wet tracks and most of his runs at Rosehill have been on top of the ground. He can bounce back. What do we do with Adana? He was unlucky again last start but didn’t ping when finally clear and he is becoming costly. I would be keen on Irukandji if the track was dry. He comes through clearly the strongest race first-up but the issue is his wet form looks horrible.

Advice: Leaning to Thy Kingdom Come if wet, Irukandji comes right into play if we miss the rain.

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Tempo looks solid enough with Thy Kingdom Come, Shock Alert and Bart all up there.

Likely market trend: Weather dependent. Thy Kingdom Come and Adana should dominate betting. Irukandji could firm more if the track isn’t too wet. Pelethronius firms if genuine heavy.

Selections: 2-5-11-1

2.Thy Kingdom Come- Looked home last start and caught late. dominant winner fourth up last prep and maybe he was just half a run short last time out. He should roll forward here and the rain affected track shouldn’t bother him. 1500m as far as he wants the little ?

5.Irukandji- Loved his run first up when catching the eye late over unsuitable 1200m. Would be on top of good track but wet form looks weak? That’s the concern.

11.Adana- unlucky again last start but didn’t ping when finally clear and he is becoming costly. Gets in light again and wet track definitely helps. Vegadaze form on wet ground reads well.

1.Pelethronius- disappointing last start but he normally loves wet tracks and most of his runs at Rosehill have been on top of the ground. He can bounce back. Not a great record here but most of his runs here were on top of ground.

Other runners:

3. Got Unders, 4. Danawi, 6. Mapmaker, 7. Shock Alert, 8. Bull Market, 9. Conarchie, 10. Devil’s Lair, 12. Bart, 13. Weekend Affair.

Race 4

Overview: The weather plays a key part here and then there is the international Heart Of Grace, who has been backed off the map ($34-$5.50). Let’s start with him. Firstly, they went up the wrong price and secondly his form reads pretty well behind Ghostwatch and Supernova overseas. His trials have been solid enough. Costello probably should have won last start and you could say the same thing two starts back. He is flying and just doesn’t want it wet. Mrs Madrid is a sneaky chance at odds. She should have been right in the finish in a weaker race fresh and get in nice and light here. Missybeel wasn’t suited back to 1600m last start but will appreciate a wet track and 2000m.

Advice: Costello the horse to beat on form but how good is this import, Heart Of Grace?

Confidence: 6/10.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Monasterio rolling along, Ulusaba, The Good Fight and Monsieur Sisu up there.

Likely market trend: Hard to tell with this import. Does he drift back out a touch? Costello starts favourite if track isn’t too wet.

Selections: 5-11-8-14

5. Costello- probably should have won last start and you could say the same thing two starts back. He is flying and just doesn’t want it wet. Going well, gets another chance and meets Ulusaba 2.5kg better off when he should have beaten that horse home last start.

11.Heart Of Grace- Firstly, they went up the wrong price and secondly his form reads pretty well behind Ghostwatch and Supernova overseas. His trials have been solid enough. Hard to line up but has good form lines. First up since Sep last year.

8.Humboldt Current- Set up for him but good win last start on wet ground. Chased hard prior over shorter trip. Should go hard again here and gets his chance again.

14.Missybeel- wasn’t suited back to 1600m last start but will appreciate a wet track and 2000m. No luck two back when should have beaten home Ulusaba. Chased TOryjoy prior in good figures.

Chances at odds:

17.Mrs Madrid- a sneaky chance at odds. She should have been right in the finish in a weaker race fresh and get in nice and light here. Wet track would help.

6. Ulusaba- Just rarely runs a bad race and what you see is what you get with hi

Other runners:

1. Loveisili, 2. The Good Fight, 3. Monsieur Sisu, 4. Nahuel, 6. Ulusaba, 7. Decroux, 9. Monasterio, 10. Zoffany’s Lad, 12. Monegal, 15. Keep Up, 16. Constellation.

Race 5

Overview: Hard to go past Bivouac and he could well be a start. His overall figure first-up was super and his overall time was six lengths quicker than Exhillarates on the day despite that filly’s race going quicker to the 600m! He loves a wet track too. Exceedance is untapped but will they run him first-up on a wet track? Yes Yes Yes is in the same boat. He looks like a serious horse but whether they risk him first-up on a rain affected surface is also a query. Anaheed can improve out of sight here. She went too quick first-up with a big weight and pulled up 1/5 lame. She is a swimmer too.

Advice: Bivouac hard to beat. Anaheed the place could interest me if it’s proper heavy.

Speed map: Speed looks below average. Anaheed looks the leader with Bivouac not far away. Yes Yes Yes should be midfield and Exceedance drifts back.

Likely market trend: Expecting Exceedance to start second favourtie behind Bivouac.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 3-6-1-4

3.Bivouac- Could well be a star. His rating first up was outstanding. Race run a full second (6L!) quicker than Exhillarates on day despite his race being run slower to 600m. That was on a S5 and he has beaten Cosmic Force on h8 and Libertini on S7. He swims.

6.Exceedance- Can’t wait to see what he has to offer. Debut win was very good at provincials when came home with wet sail and then slow tempi second up and reeled off a 32.38 L600. Was off slow tempo so keep that in mind but horses don’t go much quicker!

1.Yes Yes Yes- Super trials. Latest comes through heat 18L quicker than any other heat over same distance on same day at Randwick. Run was super in Golden Slipper. Wet track the obv knock first-up. Do they run?                                                            

4.Anaheed- Want to be forgiving  of first-up. Went too hard, had big weight and pulled up 1/5 lame. Key is she leads here and she is a swimmer. Beat home Yes Yes Yes in Golden Slipper on heavy track.

Other runners:

2. Dubious, 5. Catch Me, 7. Royal Popcorn.

Race 6

Overview: Not a race I’m overly keen on but the $16 about Wu Guk looks over the odds if we get a fair amount of rain in the next two days. He was only beaten a couple of lengths last start against a similar field on a dry track and we know he is a much better wet tracker. Wolfe looks the horse to beat again. This will be his first race on a wet track but he is hard to knock and beat most of these last start. So You Win meets Wolfe 3.5kg better off from last start and loves Rosehill, while Girl Tuesday was dynamic first-up and just doesn’t want it too wet. Watch betting on Sweet Thomas and Come Play With Me.

Advice: Wu Gok the value if heavy. Track conditions key here.

Speed map: Tempo looks moderate. Wolfe looks to lead on his own.

Selections: 10-9-7-6

10.Wu Gok- Wants it to rain and be a genuine heavy track. Meets Wolfe 2.5kg beter off from last start and he loves it wet. Rarely runs a bad race.

9.Wolfe- Horse to beat. Beat a lot of these first-up over 1800m and has improvement to come. Gets in light again and leads for fun. First run on a wet track the ? perhaps.

7.So You Win- Gets a 3.5kg swing on Wolfe, soft record is strong, loves Rosehill and runs well.

6.Girl Tuesday- Dynamic first-up, just doesn’t want it too wet. Best form on dry. 1800m should be fine.

Other chances:

3. Grey Lion- Loved his trial. Just doesn’t want it too wet but runs well.

4. Sweet Thomas- Liked him at the trials. Market support?

8. Mawaany Machine- Back in trip here, did fight back to win two back in Melb. Can bounce back?

2. Carzoff- Freshened-always capable.

Other runners:

1. Shraaoh, 2. Carzoff,5. Come Play With Me, 11. Savacool, 12. Dagny.

Race 7

Overview: I’m a little surprised Maddi Rocks isn’t favourite here. I know the gate is sticky but she was beaten by a smart horse last start and I reckon the 1400m is fine. The speed looks genuine and I expect her to be the strongest late. Subedar is the danger and he was a good winner when stepping out of a maiden last start. This looks harder again though. I’m respecting the Queenslander Alligator Blood but this looks harder than what he has been racing against in the sunshine state. He did win with a leg in the air last start though and the second horse has run well since. I thought the Kiwis, Quick Thinker and Rhaeger were more multiple chances personally. Their recent trials haven’t impressed me in NZ.

Advice: Maddi Rocks to win.

Confidence: 7/10.

Speed map: Strong tempo expected with Academy, Aspect Ratio, Mystery Trick and Savoury rolling forward. Two favourites drift back a touch, particularly Maddi Rocks.

Likely market trend: Maddi Rocks and Subedar should dominate betting.

Selections: 6-5-1-7

6.Maddi Rocks- I’m a little surprised Maddi Rocks isn’t favourite here. I know the gate is sticky but she was beaten by a smart horse last start and I reckon the 1400m is fine. Reckon this track plays to the middle anyway.

5.Subedar- Has the 1400m form, reckon it’s slightly inferior to Maddi Rocks but he handled wet track in a trial and is still on the up. Drawn low but I don’t think that will be an advantage at this time of day.

1.Alligator Blood- Good win in Qld first-up in solid figures. Second horse placed since. Obviously harder but must respect. Looks to have come back well. Weighted up to best with 59kg? Has to give likes of MR 5kg.

7.Reformist- Liked the way he foind the line fresh and the extra trip suits. Form didn’t stack up through Rock on Wednesday but has upside out to this trip. Place chance.

Other runners:

2. Quick Thinker, 3. Rhaeger, 4. Academy, 8. Savoury, 9. Mystery Trick, 10. Satin Rain, 11. Aspect Ratio.

Race 8

Overview: Haut Brion Her comes up with a tricky gate here but I have to lean her way despite that at the price. She has clocked the quickest last 200m split of the race at her past two starts after sitting up on speed and James McDonald jumps aboard. Her overall time was a fair bit sharper than Alizee’s last start. I wish I got a bit of the $7.50 TAB put up about Desert Lord! He looks to be settling better this time in and I loved his trial leading in. His win last prep was in strong overall time (last 600m was very good) although he beat far inferior opposition to what he meets here. All Too Royal was dominant first-up in strong figures and the only knock now is the inside draw and whether the track is playing to the middle by this time of the day. Mister Songman was solid first-up but might need a bit further again, while Fasika took all before her last prep and gets her chance in a race like this.

Advice: Leaning to Haut Brion Her at the better odds but very scared of Desert Lord.

Speed map: Speed looks strong here with Haut Brion Her, You Make Me Smile and Greyworm the most prominent. Desert Lord shouldn’t be too far away.

Likely market trend: Expecting Desert Lord to start favourite here.

Selections: 8-7-1-12

8.Haut Brion Her-  She has clocked the quickest last 200m split of the race at her past two starts after sitting up on speed and James McDonald jumps aboard. Her overall time was a fair bit sharper than Alizee’s last start (2L quicker overall off a slower section to 600m as well!).  Proven on soft.

7.Desert Lord- Seems to be settling better this prep. Very good win last start before a break and loved his trial. Maps well. Hard to beat.

1.All Too Royal- Had to give them a big start from the gate fresh but was still too strong in good late figures. Worried about the gate here, will it be playing to middle of track here?

12.Fasika- Two trials solid enough. Took all before her last prep.

Other chance:

3.Mister Songman- Too short for him first-up but stuck on. Is extra 100m enough> Has won heavy in Tassie.

Other runners:

2. Highland Beat, 4. Petrology, 5. You Make Me Smile, 6. Beau Ideal, 9. More To Gain, 10. Piracy, 11. Ranier, 13. Super Tycoon, 14. Greyworm, 15. Murillo, 16. So Taken.

Race 9

Overview: I thought Black Magnum was generously priced at $8.50 here and he seems to be forgotten off one bad run. He was too bad to be true last start and while his recent trial was just OK, the key is getting back onto a wet track. He loves wet ground and he gets in well at the weights after the claim. God Of Thunder is the horse to beat off his slashing return run but he has come up short here at $2.90 all the same. His wet form is OK without raving about. Blue Roche, Wayupinthesky, Roosevelt and Master Ash on the next line.

Advice: Black Magnum at the odds if the rain comes.

Speed map: Strong speed expected with Bombarding, Sheriff, Master Ash and Spanish Dream up there. Hopefully Black Magnum tucks in behind them.

Likely market trend: God Of Thunder will start short here being the last fav of the day and a popular horse.

Selections: 2-9-3-14

2.Black Magnum- Brilliant return on wet ground and backed it up with a strong win where he defeated multiple winners. Failed latest but that was on dry ground with a bad run in transit. Trial fair since last start but key is getting back onto a wet track. Seems big odds off one bad run.

9.God Of Thunder- Tricky draw? Super effort from back fresh where probably should have won. Wet form OK but not sold on yet,. Gives them a start?

3.Master Ash- Trials have been solid in good heats. Looks to have come back well to my eye. Like the way he found the line in first trial in particular. Stable in form. $21 looks overs?

14.Wayupinthesky- Got the job done with big weight of 58kg in much weaker grade. Gets weight relief and gets through the ground. Maps well.

Other chances:

5.Blue Roche- Classy mare returning from a spell. Trials solid enough and stakes mare on her day,Failed only run worse than soft 5?

8.Roosevelt- Maybe a bit close fresh but that was a weaker race. Best rating was at Wariwck Farm on a genuine wet track. Gets his chance but has been overrated to date.

Other runners:

1. Legend Of Condor, 4. Sheriff, 6. What Could Be, 7. Bombarding, 10. November Man, 12. Condemned, 13. Spanish Dream, 15. Ever So Natural, 16. Isorich.



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 17

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