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Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 10

 Jul 9 2019

Warwick Farm

Normal strategy (45 units)

Race 2 no.7 Sharapova 10 unit win at $5

Race 5 no.10 Black And Tan 10 unit win at $4.60

Race 6 no.4 Loved One 5 unit win at $6.50

Race 7 no.11 He’s A Given 10 unit win at $7 and 10 unit place at $2.20

Results: to be updated later this week.

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Long game strategy (1.1 units)

Race 2 no.7 Sharapova 0.25 unit win at $5

Race 5 no.10 Black And Tan 0.25 unit win at $4.60

Race 6 no.4 Loved One 0.1 unit win at $6.50

Race 7 no.11 He’s A Given 0.2 unit win at $7 and 0.3 unit place at $2.20

Results: to be updated later this week.

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Quaddie (starts r4): (not part of strategies): 1st leg: 6-1-9-2-8-5. 2nd leg: 10-3-2. 3rd leg: 4-2-10-3. 4th leg: 11-8-4.

Track: 3m rail heavy track

History

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

14/02/2018       wf         3m        g4          Fence or 1-2l near it off. Wider the better again it seemed                                               

16/05/2018       WF        3m        G4         Even track could run on and win anywhere                                          

11/07/2018       WF        3m        g4          OK early and then getting to middle last four an advantage                                             

3/10/2018         WF        3M        G4         Touch on pace early but prob 1-2 off best- got wider later in day and fence no good then                                         

28/11/2019       WF        3M        h8-9      Maybe a touch on pace but didn't play right out wide 2-5 off prob best part but norm wider when wet. Inside slightly inferior                                          

16/01/2019       WF        3m        G4         Pretty fiar track. No disadv be on pace. Rail maybe 1/2 length to one length off. Most winners off fence but last winner fence                               

13/02/2019       WF        3M        g4          Just hard to make ground here. No winner further back than 4th. No real lanes.                 

27/03/2019       WF        3M        h8         Middle of track here and not easy to make ground as rule                            

15/05/2019       WF        3M        g4          Fair track                          

Assessment- 3m rail at Warwick Farm on a wet track normally means getting to the middle of the track. Could be hard to make ground.

Wind: Light winds.

Race 1

Overview: I think War Baron will start favourite here and I just think he comes through the better form line. He comes through the strong form line two back with Funstar and Leviathan and then was good again last start when clearly looking for further. Quick back up now at the mile. Judicator looks the horse to beat now War Baron has been scratched. He won well last start but didn’t beat much and the figures were OK.

Advice: Leaning to Judicator.

Confidence: 7/10

Selections: 1-3-6-5

1.Judicator ($2)- Hit the line well debut 1300m and then too good latest 1500m defeating small field ok fogures.2nd horse unraced, 3rd horse avg form. Handles wet and dist.

3.Echo Lad($2.70)- Had his chance last couple but comes through easily quickest of 3 x 1300m races last start. Solid figures. Soft lead and sure to give a kick.

6.Satin Rain ($15)- Sat wide and just fair last start. Then up to 1600m and stuck on OK LS. Blinkers on now.

5.Flinders ($15)- Well back on debut and never featured.

Other runners:

2.Dunoon- Scr.Out the back in two trials and no impact. Need this?

4.War Baron- Scratched. Got to the line well in a good rating race fresh 3rd QL600 of race behind Funstar and Leviathan. Then jumped ok, had to go back from the gate and then closed off well again. 1200 to 1600m bit was already looking for 1400m LS. Gets through ground.

7.Seraph ($30)- Disapp cppl runs and needs to lift.

 

Race 2

Overview: I’m happy to look around the favourite and be with Sharapovafrom Emergent here. I know Emergent was very disappointing last start and the wet track is a query again but she went to the line with stakeswinner Final Award last prep. Sharapova has trialled up well enough and has some good form lines around the likes of Lashes last prep. She is my top pick. Lochita has trialled up well enough but looks too short in early markets.

Advice: Leaning to Sharapova at the price. Against the fav Lochita.

Confidence: 6/10.

Selections: 7-1-6-4

7.Sharapova ($4)- Pushed along to finish 3rd in a recent Hawkesbury trial. Form was solud last prep. Hit the line well first-up behind Lashes, then no luck Cant, then chsed home Almeheri. Latest just fair. Better on dry?

1.Emergent ($2.90)- Jock said never travelled on ground last starr. Nice tricover trial since when finished off well under no pressure. Went to line with Final Award behind Kolding last prep. Final Award now a stakeswinner. Ground?

6.Lochita ($4)- Two trials- Last to Tony Nicconi first one, won second trial in fair overall time whe  steppin gup to 1045- 37.5 last 600m was slowest of mornong. Beat Havana Storm in that trial. 

4.Regal Capital ($17)- Two trials- dropped out in first one, pushed along to finish third in latest. Would need to improve on last prep.

Other runners:

2.Exterminate ($35)- 2nd to Dashing Special (weak form race 8 subs st 2 placings) then well beaten LS. Yet to win 12 starts.

3.Go Garic ($23)- Made some late ground LS but figures out of race just fair. Form prior last prep avg.

5.Havana Storm ($23)- 3rd in a tickover trial since. Recent runs just fair. Would need to lift.

 

Race 3

Overview: Lashes comes out of the right race and looks hard to beat here on a wet track at her home track. Do I want to take odds-on though? I’m wary of Black Magnum who has trialled up really well and that’s why I’m inclined not to.

Confidence: 7/10.

Selections: 4-3-5-2

4.Lashes ($2)- Trialled well and looks a good filly.Beaten by a smart one first-up and they ran time- 1.3s quivker 1100m mdn on day. Beat Kylease (who won her next three starts) last prep.

3.Black Magnum ($5)- two trials have been really nice leading in. Had a good prep last time in, 2nd Bare Naked Lady, won and then chased from back Randwick. Beaten 6L Rwick only run heavy but won latest trial heavy.

5.Transmitter ($6)- Just fair three runs this prep. Ran on well with 61kg two back but set up for her. Just fair on heavy latest.

2.Wander ($9)- Won a WF trial in solid fashion leading in. Fresh form jusrt fair but had blinkers on fresh last time in and a but keen. Won on a heavy track at only run on that surface.

Other runners:

1.Fanning ($53)- Been out of form for a while now.

6.Virgilo ($53)- Second to Handfast reads OK two back but run since coveed ground but avg. All wins on top of ground? Hasn’t won since Feb 2018.

7.Magic Town ($210)- Won mdn LS but time was avg. 8 subs st 2 pl.

8.Sugar Bay Leonard ($210)- Prefer others.

 

Race 4

Overview: Tricky race. Leaning to Sothern Romance and she has been knocking on the door. Knowitall Jack, A Million Dreams, Lickopaint and Helga are all capable and there are more chances too.

Advice: Tough!

Confidence: 3/10.

Selections: 6-1-9-2

6.Southern Romance ($4)- Looked the winner LS but just faded late. .7s slower other B70 1400m on day. Won a weakish mdn prior. Second failed since, third won.

1.Knowitall Jack ($3.60)- Two tickover trials since narrow win LS. 2nd horse woin a mdn next start. Missed start latest trial-closed off well latest trial.

9.Lickopaint ($8)- Tongue tie 1st time, winkers 1st time. Seemed to have chance both runs this prep but this is winnable.

2.A mILLION Dreams ($8)- Blinkers on. Soft lead latest and kicked on to run second. This has more depth? 3.5kg swing on Debate.

Other chances:

4.Notabadharada ($12)- Freshened. Won heacy track mile back at JHawkesbury but 1300m could be a tad sharp?

8.Helga ($10)- Two soft trials- 4TH behind Zalatte fresh last prep over 1250m.  Gets a claim. Better for the run?

Other runners:

3.Hemsted ($33)- Just battled last couple and needs to lift.Blinkers off again, winkers 1st time.

5.Notabadidea ($40)- Kiwi- blinkers 1st time- Just battling over in NZ over a mile. 1300m?

7.Debate- Scratched. Jumped well. Took sit and overcame slow tempo to score LS. Barrier blanket first time now. Heavy ground here.

10.Rexx- Scratched.Can get a bit keen- Covered ground LS and stuck on OK. Took sit and not far away two back. Won on a S6 but finished last only run heavy.

11.Elusive Nature- Scratched. two soft trials leading in. Won mdn S5 Canterbury but unplaced 3 runs s6-s7. Yet to see heavy. Draws low.

 

Race 5

Overview: I think Black And Tan looks the one to beat here. I liked her last start effort behind Unguarded and she has good form at a mile (4th in an Adelaide Guineas and second at Sandown at 1600m). Sonaree didn’t run out 1900m last start but should appreciate the drop back in trip, while Monasterio defeated Andaz comfortably enough last start but Andaz gets a 2.5kg swing in his favour here. Pelethronius also has claims.

Advice: Black And Tan to win (is gate 1 a massive negative at this time of day though- will need a good ride).

Confidence; 6/10.

Selections: 10-3-2-7

10.Black And Tan ($4)- Had to switch off heels get to outside and closed off well LS. No issues at a mile- Second at Sandown mile when came from last field of 12. 4th stakes race Adelaide Guineas mile beaten less than 1L.Race rated well on day. Only knock is gate 1.

3.Sonaree ($6- Didn’t see out 1900m LS also not on best part of track. Blinkers again, back in trip. Chased home Be Mindful prior and won prior to that.wet seems to be OK.

2.Pelethronius ($6)- Wet track LS got conditions to suit and stuck to task. Now up to mile another wet track. Won twice at a mile. Hasn’t won in a while. Sat back to midweek.

7.Andaz ($7)- Won two back and then stuck on well enough LS. Gets 2.5kg swing Monasterio. Gets thrigh conditions,

Other chances:

1.Monasterio ($7)          - Burnt candle both ends LS. Able to keep going and score. Ql200 of race. Wet track. Meets Andaz 2.5kg worse off. Can he reproduce? 62.5KG!

8.Miss Jenny ($13)- OK first-up from back in weak form race going forward. Second up looked home and nabbed on line. Figures out of race just dair. 1600m should be no issue. Wet helps. 3 x wins 1500-1600.

Other runners:

4.Happy Seventy Seven- Scratched. No excuses in stewards report LS. Won a weak form race prior (5 subs st 1 pl).

5.High Mist ($25)- Well beaten LS. Backmarker that needs things to go his way. Gets through conditions. OK behund Quackerjack two back.

6.Missybeel ($50)- Got back and never featured LS. That was a h10. Won twice at a mile and impr with run but maybe another? Won 2nd up in past but was first prep.

9.Flying Pierro- In at Newc yesterday.

 

Race 6

Overview: Tricky race. Loved One could be the one that’s over the odds. She beat Unguarded earlier this prep and while she has been unplaced in two soft runs, she has trialled well on heavy ground. The blinkers come off (winkers on) to help her relax. Sweet Ava also has claims and she went far too hard in front last start.

Advice: Loved One the value?

Selections: 4-2-10-3

4.Loved One ($5)- Nice tickover trial since LS failure- No excuse in stewards report- Trainer put down to soft conditions. She was also keen in run. Blinkers off, winkers 1st time. Trialled well heavy but unplaced two soft runs.

2.Sweet Ava ($4)- Caught in speed dual LS and went far too hard in front and  knocked up. Good prior in Sat grade. Not far away three soft track runs. Untried heavy.

10.High Low Bet ($4)- Stuck on OK LS and was solid fresh. Gets in winnable weight, handles wet and finds Shinn.

3.Cuban Sizzle ($10)- OK LS. Stuck to task. Beat Waruna going back a few months but Waruna unlucky having to get so far back and wide.

Other runners:

1.Tycoon Street- ScratchedMissed start but just fair last start. Had to go right back tail start prior gate and ran on well enough.Back 100m, has big weight.

5.Seles- Scratched. Set up for her two back and then just fair latest in avg rating race- .7sslower other race over same dist on day and mainly L600.

6.Vinnie Power ($7)- Improved LS. Caught in speed dual last couple- Seems to be horse wants the front hasn’t been able to get that. Will Sweet Ava let her cross? Same two horses speed dual at WF recently.

8.No Interest ($39)- OK fresh then too bd to be true LS. Too wet LS? Now finds another wet track.

9.Impetuoso-Scratched. Won three back but had every chance last couple. Needs to lift.

Race 7

Overview: He has already been well supported but He’s A Given is going well enough to be competitive here. He has ran on well from the back at his last two starts where the tempo has been against him. Oneness was disappointing last start but is better than that, while Barricade is in the same category. Pembroke Castle is busting to win a race and also has claims (so does Metamorphic if they run and if the track dries out).

Advice: He’s A Given each-way.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 11-8-4-5

11.He;s A Given ($6)- QL400 and 200 day two back when tempo/gate against, latest tempo against again-3rd QL400 of day LS. Racing well. Draws gate, loves this track and drops sign weight. Runs well. Hasn’t won for a while.

8.The Party Girl ($3.30)- Peaked Last 200m LS. Too far back after missing start last tiem out. Run prior overcame slow tempo to score at 1400m. Second horse won well since. 2 heavy runs OK. Got home OK both.

4.Pembroke Castle ($6)- Tough last cppl of starts. Just missed to Condor LS and that horse beaten 3.2L in town to Ljungberg since. 4th prior OK. Won only start heavy. Soft form mixed. OK two back when fence not best place.

5.Barricade ($12)- Won two straight with good finishing style then beaten out of sight LS. Won on heavy in past- Rwick LS different heavy.

Other runners:

1.Chapelco ($10)- Taken on in front LS. Wet track against. Not sure he leads here, prefer when leads.

2.Metamorphic-Scratched.  Blinkers again, winkers off. OK Sat grae LS. Gate 1 on wet track this time of day? Scracthed wet tracks so not sure he handles.

6.Musume ($10)-Won two of past 4 starts. Right part of track LS and stuck on OK. Last 200? Won only heavy run.

7.Spooky Wooky ($81)- Soft trial coming in. Each spell about a year. Ran second first-up Goulburn big weight last prep but can’t have first up in a year in city wet trak.

9.Kelvinside-Scratched. hit the line well fresh as he always does. Second up record reads just fair. Wet track big ? and gets back a long way you would imagine. Won S6 but struggled wetter.

10.Rock Zone- Scratched. First-up. Two soft trials.Only win over a mile. Seems to get through conditions. 2nd to Thinkin’ Big 1100m Canterbury fresh one prep. Furrther?

12.Emrald Fortune ($47)- Got home OK Canberra synthetic LS. Has won heavy. Not sure has right form?

13.Sostenido ($25)- Just battling ths prep needs to lift. One thing though is wet form is better than it looks. Heavu runs fine- ran on well.

 



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Warwick Farm July 10

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