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Brad Davidson preview Randwick June 8

 Jun 6 2019

Best bet

Eagle Farm

Race 6 no.7 Prince Fawaz $5 and $1.90 (rated $3.80)

Blinkers went on last start and his win was very, very good. He copped a nasty check around the bend but picked himself up and charged to the line and score with a very slick last 200m split. Ran well in a very good rating Champagne Stakes over a mile in the autumn when off a bad set up (1200m to 1600m) and he is going better now. Kerrin McEvoy, good gate, big track, mile- should be favourite for mine and looks hard to beat.

Best value

Race 8 no.11 Zourkhan $11 and $3.50 (rated $8)

Put a pen through last start and he clearly didn't appreciate the firm surface. His run prior was super against Star Of The Seas where he just peaked on the run late. He meets Star Of The Seas 6kg better for that day, gets a genuine soft track and should roll forward in a race lacking tempo. Can bounce back.

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

Normal strategy  (**all prices before scratchings)

Eagle Farm

Race 6 no.7 Prince Fawaz 25 unit win at $5 and 25 unit place at $1.90

Race 1 no.7 Ready To Prophet 10 unit win at $5.50

Randwick

Race 4 no.8 Ombudsman 5 unit win at $8

Race 5 no.8 I Am Queen 10 unit win at $9

Race 8 no.5 Star Of The Seas 10 unit win at $4.60

Race 8 no.11 Zourkhan 10 unit win at $11 and 15 unit place at $3.40

Race 9 no.9 High Power 5 unit place tote

Race 9 no.7 Zip A Dee Do Dah 5 unit place at $8

Randwick 10 unit quaddie (starts r6, 6.9%): 1st leg: 4-1-2. 2nd leg: 9-3-10. 3rd leg: 11-5-9-8. 4th leg: 2-11-9-7.

Betting results since started on April 20: +215.7 units, 18%POT, 1215 unit outlay)

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Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy 

Eagle Farm

Race 6 no.7 Prince Fawaz 1 unit win at $5 and 1 unit place at $1.90

Race 1 no.7 Ready To Prophet 0.25 win at $5.50

Randwick

Race 4 no.8 Ombudsman 0.25 win at $8

Race 5 no.8 I Am Queen 0.25 unit win at $9

Race 8 no.5 Star Of The Seas 0.5 unit win at $4.60

Race 8 no.11 Zourkhan 0.25 unit win at $11 and 0.5 unit place at $3.50

Race 9 no.9 High Power 0.25 unit place tote

Race 9 no.7 Zip A Dee Doo Dah .25 unit place at $8

Betting results since started on April 20: +11.5 unit profit, (31%POT, 36.55 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Track: Rail out 3m, soft track.

Track bias                   F2               F3               F4               F5               F6                   F7               F8               F9

10/06/2017                Rand         3m             H10           Middle track on pace def advantage- 8/9 winners settled top 4                                                              

3/03/2018                  Rand         3m             S5               Fence well and truly off                                                            

14/04/2018                Rand         3m             G4              Got to the middle of the track butwhat was key was cover with a strong head wind with the sprint trips

9/06/2018                  Rand         3                 H9              Pretty fair track this. Won from most places.                                                           

29/09/2018                Rand         3m             G4              Few off fence best ground here suiting run on. Fence not best place but not massively inferior   

6/11/2018                  Rwick        3                 g3               Fair track this                                                                            

26/12/2018                Randwick 3m             S5               2-6 off look best ground- didn't want to be hard fence                       

16/02/2019                Rwick        3m             G4              I reckon first few lanes (partic hard fence) were off. Wider the better from 3-4 out. Could run on and win from front.           

13/04/2019                Rand         3M             G4 (but soft)                   Swooping off fence here, wider the better really

Assessment-              Distinct pattern to be away from the fence here.

Race 1

Overview: Lanigera has trialled up well enough and does bring solid form lines from Melbourne. He has been gelded since last prep but can race a bit keen. Covert Ops comes out of a fast run race on the Kensington track last start and the winner has won again since. There are a host of horses coming off provincial wins and I thought Switched was probably the best of those.

Advice: Lanigera on top.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 3-2-6-1

3.Lanigera ($3)- Gelded. Can be a bit keen? Soft trial coming in- Brings solid form from Victoria- 3rd and 6th both won out of LS he was in at Flem.

2.Covert Ops ($6)- Slow out, hunted up, knocked up late first up. Race run quicker benchmark race on day and winner won again since.

6.Switched ($7)- Nice debut win in OK time. Can go on.

1. Roman Wolf ($8)- Good win LS and can go on.

Other chances:

9.Tajori ($10)- Bolted in debut in fair figures- Can she measure up?

 

Other runners:

 4. North ($24), 7. Yitai Synergy ($16), 8. Catwalk ($20), 10. Empire Collide ($96)

 

Race 2

Overview: Tricky race. Statuesqley is two from two and it’s hard to knock what she has done to date. She rises to 1800m here and strikes a rain affected track for the first time in her career. I really liked the way Think It Over finished off last start. Back 200m is not ideal but he is an improving type. Itz Lily wasn’t far away in the Doomben Roses and she bolted in prior in country grade with a big weight on soft ground prior to that. 

Advice: Tricky race.

Confidence: 5/10.

Selections: 2-5-11-10

2.Itzy Lily ($4.80)- Bolted in country grade big weight wet track than 1.5L off in Roses. Draws well. Smart claim. Wet a +.

5.Statuesquely ($4)- 2/2- Dashed home in solid fogures latest. Now 1800m, soft track but hard to knock.

11.Think It Over ($6.30)- Loved the way he finished off LS. Didn’t go as hard as it looked to the eye and late figures were strong. Back 100m.

10.Costas ($12)- Should have won only run heavy. Going OK.

Other chances:

9.Ritmico ($16)- No luck back to back starts before winning latest. Going OK, big jump naturally.

4.Frenzied ($15)- Set up for him two back but better than he showed LS.

12. Watch The Cat ($25)- Still a maiden but closed off nicely behind a city winner LS. Not hopeless.

8. Dundee Lee ($22)- Bolted in LS in much weaker grade but still on the up.

Other runners:

1. Commander ($30), 6. Snippetspeed ($88), 7. Eighteen Carrot ($30).

 

Race 3

Overview: I think the market has this pretty spot on with both Madame Pauline (second up off a long break) and Irish Songs (unlucky behind Madame Pauline last start) dominating betting. Madame Pauline could go either way second up off a long break, while Irish Songs only has to reproduce the first-up effort (does he want further?) to go close. Malea Magic bring good provincial form to the table for this before a freshen, while Mr Wong was a strong winner first-up and will be running on strongly at the finish.

Advice: Irish Songs to win.

Confidence rating: 6/10.

Selections: 3-8-2-1

3.Irish Songs ($3.20)- No luck firt-up and could make a case to say he should have won. Draws low again. Does he want further than 1100m?

8.Mr Wong ($9)- Bolted in first-up. Does this horse want further than 1100m now? Good win all the same and form around Frankely Awesome reads well.

2.Malea Magic ($7.50)- Solid prov form last prep and not far away Country Champs heat. Freshened. Respect.

1. Another Sin ($9)-

Other runners:

 4. Dram Of Delago($11), 5. Tootz ($11), 6. Ibini ($28), 10. Nevada Dane ($37), 12. Booradley ($55), 13. Charlotte’s Heart ($55), 14. Revitup Rednut ($55), 15. Pisa My Heart ($28), 18. Dragoneight ($223).

 

Race 4

Overview: Open race. I think Ombudsman was slightly over the odds here and I’m willing to forgive his last start effort where he was caught wide off the track and overracing. The 2400m is his go and he won a weak race over 2400m on a soft 7 at this track last year. Free Fly Too was too bad to be true last start and his form prior was pretty good. One thing about him is he likes wet tracks as well. The knock is he has been up for a long time. Terwilliker, California Longbow, Doukhan and others are all capable but happy to speck those two.

Advice: Ombudsman to win.

Confidence rating: 5/10.

Selections: 8-2-10-12

8.Ombudsman ($6)- Wide and overraced latest but was building towards this prior. Won this t/d S7 in July last year against a weaker field.

2.Free Fly Too ($7)- Too bad to be true LS and on the quick back up here. Form prior strong- Sat 3WNC to win at WF over 2400m on soft ground going back a few starts ago and he had been a model of consistency prior to LS flop.

10.California Longbow ($7)- Solid midweek win LS and no luck prior. 2400m?

12.Terwilliker ($8)- Tough stayer that gets in with just 49kg here. That’s a big help!

Other chances:

1.Doukhan ($11)- Has to carry the grandstand but comes off G1 form. Loves wet.

3.Plymouth Road ($10)- Rolls to the front and another who likes it wet.

Other runners:

4. Fanciful Toff ($10), 6. Letter To Juliette ($29), 7. Tunero ($29), 9. Subban ($38), 11. My Pshcyhiatrist ($57), 13. Cass ‘N’ Black ($57).

 

Race 5

Overview: Happy to have something on I Am Queen here and she has had two jump outs in Victoria where she has led them both and won them well. Her win off a freshen at Ballarat last prep (on a soft 7) was very good (quickest late splits of the day) and she clearly loves wet ground. Call Me Royal jumps to the front and will be hard to run down again (untried on wet ground), while I think Taniko is flying but just how far back will she have to get here? If she drew a gate, she would be on top. They look the three to me.

Advice: I Am Queen to win.

Confidence rating: 6/10.

Selections: 8-6-4-3

8.I Am Queen ($7)- 2 jump outs in Vic- Jumped to front and won in solid time. Win off a freshen at Ballarat last prep would see her go close in this. Should get across and sit just off speed.

6.Call Me Royal ($3.40)- Yet to see a wet track but looks to lead for fun and should be hard to catch. Just had to work too hard early LS.

4.Taniko ($6)- Loved her run first-up over 1000m. Had to go right back but closed off verywell late. Has the right form, just whether she gets too far back. Could save at $6.50.

3.Miss Exfactor ($17)- Blinkers on- Disap two runs in Sydn but clearly better on wet ground. Blinkers/ extra trip could spark her into action.

Other chance:

9.Koonunga ($13)- WNC when brave behind Gododdin and then no luck at all last start. Complete forgive.

Other runners:

1. Gibraltar Girl ($57), 2. Gongs ($14), 5. Freehearted ($22), 7. Levee Bank ($60), 10. Connemara ($28), 11. Jen Rules ($28), 12. I Am Kalani ($22).

 

Race 6

Overview: Tricky little race. Bring It Home Pop hasn’t had a lot go right of late and if he finds the front, he can prove hard to catch. He has strong wet track form and he has been wide no cover at his past two starts. The extra trip should help. Smartedge looks well graded here despite the 60.5kg and he will be attacking the line hard late. Whether there is enough pace for him early is the query. Southern Lad can park a touch closer from the gate and looks ready third-up, while Metamorphic should improve but comes through an average form race first-up.

Advice: Bring It Home Pop the value perhaps?

Confidence rating: 4/10.

Selections: 4-1-2-3

4.Bring It Home Pop ($6.50)- Might get out to a backable price. Could lead these and has been wide last two starts. Wet form is good.

1.Smartedge ($4.10)- Well graded here and 60.5kg should be OK. Will be savaging the line late and his fresh form is solid.

2.Southern Lad ($4.40)- Comes through a weak form race at Scone but both runs back have been strong. Can park closer but is fence off?

3. Ronstar ($9)-

Other runners:

5. Dio D’Oro ($19), 6. Got The Goss ($57), 7. Love Shack Baby ($38), 8. Simply Optimistic ($14), 10. Argent D’Or ($14), 11. Handfast ($38).

 

Race 7

Overview: Hard to go past Deprive but I’m not sure I want to dive in at $2.10 all the same. He was dynamic first-up when having to go back to the inside (inferior ground) and he gets in nice and light. If there is a knock, it’s staying at 1100m. Heart Conquered grows a leg on wet ground and it took Deprive to run him down last start on dry ground. The knock is he has drawn a touch awkwardly with speed inside him. I Thought So has trialled up very well and will flash late, while Bon Amis gets a gun run on the map and does fly fresh. Brook Magic did defeat Heart Conquered first-up and can’t be dismissed either.

Advice: Deprive on top but too short.

Confidence rating: 6/10.

Selections: 9-10-3-4

9.Deprive ($2.50): Good win first-up when having to go back to inside which was inferior on day. Stays at 1100m but draws to get to the outside and go close.

10.Heart Conquered ($4.20)- Brave at two runs back and he grows a leg wet ground. Just map the query? Speed drawn inside.

3.I Thought So ($8)- First-up off a long break but I like the way he has trialled up. Goes well fresh and will run on late.

4.Bon Amis ($14)-Gets the gun run and does fly fresh. This is just a task.

Other runners:

5. Boss Lane ($180), 7. She Knows ($22), 8. Spending To Win ($30), 11. Brook Magic ($13), 12. Noble Joey ($180).

 

Race 8

Overview: I like the look of Zourkhan here and he is going to love getting back onto a wet track. It was just too firm for him the other day but his first-up run was a cracker where he was narrowly beaten by Star Of The Seas (he meets that horse 6kg better off here). He lands on speed, the gap between runs is fine and he looks a good each-way bet at double figures. Star Of The Seas is the horse to beat if he gets a run here and his win was better than it looked last start. Another Dollar at $9.50 goes in everything and her two runs back have both been impressive. I was on So You Win last start but he looks a bit skinny here at $4.60 back in trip?

Advice: Zourkhan each-way and Star Of The Seas to win.

Confidence rating: 7/10.

Selections: 11-5-9-8

11.Zourkhan ($8)- Outstanding first-up run on his preferred wet track when peaked late and narrowly beaten by Star Of The Seas. Meets that horse 6kg better here! Forget last run when it was too firm. Back on wet a huge tick, light weight and sits in first few in race that lacks speed.

5.Star Of The Seas ($3.50)- Loves it wet- Flying this horse- Just a real winner. Overcame a slow tempo to score LS.

9.Another Dollar ($8)- Huge off a slow tempi fresh and then ran on well again last start. 2nd to Youngstar in Qld Oaks on soft ground.

8.New Universe ($10)- Sectionals last start were amaaaazzzzziiinnngggg. Clearly best of the day. Draws awkwardly and there are two of him but if he reproduces last start he goes close.

Other runners:

2. My Nordic Hero ($28), 4. Harpers Choice ($86), 7. Take It Intern ($12), 10. Gresham ($11), 13. Mongolian Wolf ($173), 14. Valentino Rossa ($13), 16. Berdibek ($22).

 

Race 9

Overview: Hard to go past the favourite Quackerjack and he should come across, lead and prove hard to beat. He was super behind Kolding last start and the key to him is he loves wet tracks (last start was on dry). I think there are a couple of good roughies we can speck a place here in High Power and to a lesser degree Zip A Dee Do Dah. High Power had the flashing light on fresh and should work home again, while I know Zip A Dee Do Dah was on the best ground at Eagle Farm first-up but his wet form is solid and he will appreciate the extra trip. Semper Fidelis runs well and she should have won last start and handles wet ground (back in trip not ideal?).

Advice: Quackerjack hard to beat. Small play High Power to place and Zip A Dee Do Dah a place.

Confidence rating: 7/10.

Selections: 2-11-9-7

2.Quackerjack ($1.90): he should come across and land outside Pandemonium here and prove hard to beat. He was super behind Kolding last start and the key to him is he loves wet tracks (last start was on dry). Ran time LS.

11.Semper Fidelis ($8.50)- Should have won LS. Building now. Back to 1600m but likes it wet.

9.High Power ($13)- Hidden run first-up when got home well from the back. Senior hoop goes on. Wet no issue $7 the place appeals.

7.Zip A Dee Do Dah- Best part of track EF but closed well. Wet form is good and can run into a place at big odds.

Other runners:

4. Mushaireb ($45), 5. Jack Regan ($30), 7. Zip A Dee Doo Dah ($13), 10. Monsieur Sisu ($18), 13. Occupy ($22), 14. Prometheus ($89), 15. Reneged ($359), 16. High Mist ($180), 18. Primitivo ($22), 19. No Escape ($180).



Brad Davidson - Brad Davidson preview Randwick June 8

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