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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick Kensington preview tips May 4

 May 3 2019

Best bet

Newcastle (***Next Tuesday)

Race 5 no.1 Killer Instinct $4.80

Started a well supported $2 favourite first-up where she pulled up with cardiac arrythmia so put a pen through that. Her trial since was super and I will be surprised if she is not very hard to beat here. She went to the line with Bring The Magic last prep and that form line looks very, very strong for this. I think she will start much shorter than $4.80!

 

Kensington May 4 

Best value

Race 9 no.3 Maktoum $19 and $4.40

Futures bet

TAB All-in JJ Atkins market: Twentyfour Carat $51 and $13.50

Only 1 length off JJ Atkins favourite Reloaded first-up where he didn't have a lot of room down the home straight. He hit the line very strongly at his only other run last prep and he comes from a good family. He is by I Am Invincible but there is some stoutness in his dam side to suggest he should get a mile. I spoke to John O'Shea today and he is likely to run at Canterbury next Wednesday with a view of heading to Queensland for the JJ Atkins next month. 

 

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

 

Normal strategy (100 unit spend so far)

Race 5 no.9 Kapajack 10 unit win at $2.70

Race 6 no.2 Shokora 5 unit win at $11

Race 6 no.5 Vinnie Power 5 unit win at $9.50

Race 8 no.8 Star Of The Seas 10 unit win at $4.20

Race 9 no.3 Maktoum 5 unit win at $19 and 5 unit place at $4.40

10 unit quaddie (starts r6, 18.5%): 1st leg: 2,5,3. 2nd leg: 3,11. 3rd leg: 8,5,12. 4th leg: 3,10,2.

5 unit multi ($4.93): Race 6 no.2 Shokora to place ($2.90) into Race 8 no.7 Star Of The Seas to place ($1.70).

Newcastle Tuesday

Race 5 no.1 Killer Instict 45 units win at $4.80

Betting results since started on April 20: 20.5 unit profit (6%POT , 330 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Long game strategy (3.5 units spent below)

Kensington

Race 6 no.2 Shokora 0.25 unit win at $11

Race 6 no.5 Vinnie Power 0.25 unit win at $9.50

Race 8 no.8 Star Of The Seas 0.5 unit at $4.20

Race 9 no.3 Maktoum 0.25u win at $19 and 0.25 place at $4.40

Newcastle Tuesday- Race 5 no.1 Killer Instinct 1.5 unit win at $4.80

Futures bet: TAB All-in JJ Atkins market-Twentyfour Carat 0.25 win $51 and 0.25 unit place $13.50 

 

Betting results since started on April 20: 1.9 unit profit, (18%POT, 10.75 units outlayed)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

Rail true

History rail true:

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

18/04/2018       Kens      TRUE     G4         Off fence later in day but played pretty well                                                  

5/09/2018         Kens      True      G4         On pace and fencish early and then chopped out last two races where out wide was better                                               

1/10/2018         Kenso    True                    Fence well and truly off                                        

22/11/2018       Kenso    True      G4         Rail ok first 2-3 then wider the better as day went on                                              

5/01/2019         Kenso    True      G3         Lanes no issue but fairly on pace (most tempo though?). Only one winner further back 4th.                                                     

6/03/2019         Kens      True      g4          Pretty fair track. Didn’t want to be too far back and I don't think hard fence was best place                             

Assessment: Generally pretty on pace first 2-3 races and then should chop out and suit those coming to the middle of the track. Close to fence in short history hasn’t been the place to be.

 

Preview:

Overview: I thought the winner would come from Spaceboy or Minted here and I don’t think there is a lot between them. I liked the improvement Minted showed from his first to his second trial and he attacked the line very strongly in the second trial after only getting out very late in the trial. The last 600m split of that trial (32.5s) was the quickest for the six 735m heats on the day (.2s quicker than Aeecee Beau and .3s quicker than Duenna). The winner of the heat, Discharged has also finished a good third behind Reloaded since. Splintex and Badia look best of the rest. Spaceboy has the form on the board with a second to Tassort on debut and then a third in the Magic Millions 2YO Wyong race. His two trials this time in have both been sharp. Splintex did beat Minted in a trial and then ran well on debut, while Badia will run on late.

Advice: Spaceboy.

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 2-8-10-3

2.Spaceboy- Second to Tassort and third in MM Wyong race. Two trials this time in, shown spee and hard to run down.

8.Splintex- Beat Minted in a trial and then nice third behind Human Nature on debut in solid time. Race experience helps. 2nd up, race fitness.

10.Badia- Probably should have beaten Wayupinthesky and then got home well Group race LS. This is easier. Map the ?.

3. Aeecee Beau- Nice improvement one trial to second.

Other runners:

1.Covert Ops,  5. Dream Circle, 9. Rubic Honour, 12. Duenna, 13. Jay Curve.

 

Race 2

Overview: I’ve always had plenty of time for Heart Conquered and his win before a break proved to me he isn’t just a wet tracker. He ran super time there and his recent trial was super. He looks hard to beat. Revenire has a great record at this trip (top two five of six starts at 1000m) and he can park off what looks a strong speed and should be sprouting wings late. Brook Magic has a good fresh record but was a touch disappointing last prep. The blinkers come off here and her trials have been OK leading in. Catesby is always capable and has trialled well but the 1000m might be a tad sharp for him.

Advice: Heart Conquered looks the one but at his right price all the same.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 1-4-5-7

1.Heart Conquered ($2.40)- Ran very good figures when beating Sei Stella here. 55.9- rated very well and he clocked QL200 of race. A lot thinking wet tracker prior. Beat Revenire comfortably two back wet track although 5.5kg swing to Revenire from that day.Lovely 900m trial Canterbury.

4.Revenire ($6)- Good fresh record and does love 1000m. Second to Esperance fup 1000m Rwick course proper wet track last prep when on best ground. Won easily Cl2 Hawk fup 1000m prep prior. Top 2 5 of 6 at 1000m.

5.Brook Magic ($7.50)- Greaty fresh record (wrong part of track near inside fup last prep). Two soft trials, reckons she takes sit. Blinkers off. Strong B78.

7. Exceltic ($12)- No weight on his back and the one getting home in they overdo it here,

Other chances:

6. Mossman Gorge ($12)- Honest sprinter-Just beaten by Consider It Done LS but stuck on. Has experience on Kenso track.

Other runners:

3. Golden Tycoon ($12), 8. November Man ($18)

 

Race 3

Overview: It looks a two horse race as the market suggests between We Concur and Al Mah HaHa. I’ll lean the way of We Concur and he should get a good run behind the speed here and he is the horse on the way up. He should run 1400m and he is in the right stable. Al Mah Haha has been brave when wide at his past two starts and he will appreciate the 1400m a lot more than 1200m. He did beat Noble Boy two starts back. Pierino looks best of the rest.

Advice: We Concur on top. Al Mah Haha looks the logical threat.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 2-1-5-4

2.We Concur ($3.50)- Won 3 of 6 including two of three this prep. On trial at 1400m but strong through line LS and in right stable. Draws to be close.

1.Al Mah Haha ($4.20)- Wide no cover at his past two starts and he has been brave. Beat Noble Boy two back and then back to 1200m last start against. Seven furlongs more his go.

5.Pierino ($12)- Been a touch disappointing of late. Started fav at Moruya LS and just caught late by Bart. Beaten 1/2 L in Hway back in March over mile.

4.Art Of Dance ($12)- Beaten 2L midweeks at WF LS but at least she has benchmark form. Beaten 1/2L by Valree there and that horse beat Je Suis Tycoon narrowly start prior so ties in there.

Other chances:

3. Je Suis Tycoon ($15)- Set up for but did get home well to score at Newcastle LS. Should run on well.

Other runners:

6. Harry New Shoes ($60), 7. Velaro ($25), 9. Dreaming Of Biscay ($20), 10. Irish Lucy ($60), 11. Laughing Or Crying ($60), 13. Belle Of Cadiz ($121), 14. Ultraviolet ($15).

Race 4

 

Overview: Competitive race over the 1800m here. Welsh Legend wasn’t far away in the Adrian Knox last start and the winner finished fourth in the Oaks at her following start. Amangiri also came out of that race (good thing beaten since). I like the way Nobu found the line last start off a slow tempo. He beat home Vega there who has won well since. Fun Fact has been trapped wide without cover at his past two runs but I prefer him on wet ground, while Sondelon is a chance from the front if he runs out 1800m.

Advice: Leaning to Nobu but tricky

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 9-7-1-13

9.Nobu ($5/50)- like the way he found the line in slowly run race behind Pelorus Jack LS. 1800m a positive.  

7.Fun Fact ($7)- 3WNC his past two runs and good over this t/d three back. Can bounce back. Would like some rain.

1.Sondelon ($7)- Just fair LS over the mile but can roll in front here and taking on a lot of 3yos. Just might keep going but 1800m the obvious query?

13. Duchess Of Lennox ($12)- Won last two in average figures. Transferred to Waller.

Other runners:

2. Semper Fidelis ($16), 3. Tinkermosa ($16), 4. Ombudsman ($16), 5. Eugene’s Pick ($10), 6. Chilly Cha Cha ($32), 8. Lady Mironton ($12), 10. Fuji Fury ($32), 14. Bart ($32)

Race 5

Overview: Messy speed map here and luck in running will be crucial for Kapajack who will be caught behind a wall of horses you would imagine turning for home from the inside draw. He has all the upside here but interestingly to note his overall time last start was about five lengths slower than Zonk’s on the same day despite his race being run some 10 lengths quicker to the 600m mark of his race. Zonk hasn’t been seen since that day where she bled but has to have a huge chance on that above information alone, while Catesby will be closing off strongly if they decide to go here over the 1000m race. Miss Exfactor also has claims first-up for the new stable.

Advice: Kapajack the horse to beat but the inside gate could work against by this time of the day?

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 9-4-3-1

9.Kapajack ($2.70)- Soft trial coming in. Beat Easy Eddie on debut on Sat race city where did get 8.5kg off that horse (QL400 and 200 day at Rosehill). Beat Mister Songman too who bolted in 1400 Rwick two runs later. Two runs after solid. Interesting to note his time last race before a break .8s slower than Zonk on same day despite his race being run more than 10L quikcker to 600m mark. Gate 1 this stage of day?

4.Miss Excfactor ($6.50)- Resumes for new stable in Joe Pride- Former Qlder who has form around Winter Bride. Better on wet ground? Trials have been fine (former T Gollan).

3.Zonk ($6.50)- Returns after bled LS and 3month ban. Trials OK although missed start latest. Drawn awkwardly- honest on pacer. Interesting to note time comparison with Kapajack (see Kapajack info under his name). 1100 OK.

1.Catesby ($6.50)- Claim helps, should park behind the speed and prefer 1100m over 1000m for him. Good trial win prov, won first up lat prep WF although Schubert good thing beaten that dat. Carries plenty of condition so don’t worry about that.

 

Other runners:

5. Invincible Quest ($33), 7. Super Ex ($13), 10. Absolute Ripper ($19)

Race 6

Overview: Open race this but I think Vinnie Power is worth a gamble. Her trials have been good enough coming into this and she should get a good run on speed. She beat Sexy Eyes last prep who won a Group 3 later that prep and also beat home Sky Boy as well. She should roll forward and prove hard to catch here. Strome was the only horse to settle further back than fourth and score at Gosford last start although it was set up for her that day. Jen Rules comes out of the fillies Group races of late and I’m just querying the form a touch on them. Shokora has trialled up well and she had form around Bella Martini, Bring Me Roses and Twitchy Frank as a three-year-old. She did win a race at Moonee Valley last prep as well. Palmateer looked good at the trials but she always trials well and her race form is just fair.

Advice: Vinnie Power and Shokora the two at odds that can run well.

Confidence rating on race: 5/10.

Selections: 2-5-3-10

2.Shokora ($6.50)- trialled up well and she had form around Bella Martini, Bring Me Roses and Twitchy Frank as a three-year-old. She did win a race at Moonee Valley last prep as well.

5.Vinnie Power ($6.50)- Trials have been solid and she beat Sexy Eyes last time in and Sky Boy too. Fitness first-up a ? for a stable who don’t have them wound up fresh but she was backed before being scratched in a race in recent weeks as well.

3.Strome ($8)- Only horse to settle further back than 4th and win at Gosford last start. Always promised a bit and may go on this prep. Was set ip for her though.

10.She’s Furline ($10)- Comes through same form lines as Jen Rules so must be respected if JR is a chance.

Other runners:

1. Our Rockabyebaby ($38), 4. Pandemonium ($16), 6. Alart ($14), 7. Vontaine ($19), 11. Palmateer ($10), 12. Echo Gem ($10), 13. Red Chandelier ($11)

Race 7

Overview: Very tough race. Passage Of Time had no luck first-up and with any he beats Top Striker there. Having said that, his second-up record isn’t as good and does he want further now? You could make a case for most of these. Murillo never got a crack at them first-up, Top Striker beat a lot of these fresh, Problem Solver was wide without cover fresh and should improve, Noble Joey runs a big race from the front, Fragonard flies fresh and has trialled well, while Star Of Monsoon didn’t corner well at Gosford but came again late. Confused yet?

Advice: Very tough! Go wide in the quaddie.

Confidence rating on race: 3/10.

Selections: 11-3-2-7

11.Murillo ($7)- Backed and no luck at all first0up. Worth another chance.

3.Passage Of Time ($5)- Should have won first-up against a lot of these. Can he reproduce? 2nd up record not as strong and may be looking for further?

2.Top Striker ($8)- Did beat most of these first-up although there were some hard luck stories behind him.

7.Problem Solver ($9)- WNC first-up but was just fair. Trialled well prior and she is better than that.

Other chances:

10.Fragonard ($9)- Brings different form lines- Trialled well, not far away fresh last few preps including G3 company. Won 3/5 first-up.

1.Tougherthantherest ($12)- Had to go right back from gate first-up and had best late splits in race a lot of these come through

5. Charge ($12)- Maybe they try roll forward here and ride him aggressively. Holding him up where he overraces isn't working.

Other runners:

4. No Doubt ($33),  6. Piracy ($13), 8. Aylmerton ($16), 

 

Race 8

Overview: Very deep race this with quite a few chances. It’s hard to go past Star Of The Seas and he was pretty good last start when wide throughout in a sprint home. Gate one is the knock at this time of the day. Renewal bounced back to form in Melbourne last start, Man From Uncle had no luck first-up, while Spring Charlie (held up) and Turnberry (four wide no cover) were both unlucky in the Provincial Championships Final. Throw in Tip Top who flies fresh (but he is normally in shorter races first-up?) and Articus, who has been trialling well and it’s a deep race.

Advice: Star Of The Seas is the horse to beat on form but is the inside gate a disadvantage by this time?

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 8-5-12-11

8.Star Of The Seas ($4)- Really good preparation. Wide off slow tempo LS and finished off strongly in sprint home. Form prior was good inc a good win over Spring Charlie. Concern is gate 1 but Mercurial Lad likes to roll and he should be able to get off the fence.

5.Man From Uncle ($7.50)- No luck fup and has won a Hobartville 1400m. Don’t mind draw by this time of day.

12.Spring Charlie ($5)- Not a lot of luck in Prov Champs Final, well held behind Star Of The Seas prior but that was a wet track, he missed the start and he gets a nice 2.5kg swing in weights on SOTS from that day.

11.Renewal ($7.50)- Disappointing two back but ran on strongly LS Caulfield in race run .6s quicker Twitchy Frank on day, His late splits were good. Seems to be jumping better. Gets back here.

Other chances:

6.Turnberry ($12)- Reckon it’s his shape of race- strongly run. Super in Prov Champs Final when 4WNC throughout off strong speed. Beat Prov Champs winner sitting 3WNC at Wyong prior.

1.Tip Top ($18)- underrated horse- 2 soft trials. Fresh runs normally really good but over 1000 and 1100. Over 1400m fresh here. If ready, can cause boilover.

Other runners:

2. Articus ($31), 4. Albumin ($18), 7. Echo Effect ($30), 9. Mongolian Wolf ($92), 14. Something Fast ($40).

Race 9

Overview: Happy to make a case for Maktoum at the double figure odds in the last. He was a month and a half between runs at Warwick Farm also rising in trip when he covered ground, hit the front and then knocked up. He draws well here to chime in late down the outside and he can only improve off that. Agassi is going from strength to strength and his winning time was 1.7s quicker than Pelorus Jack on the same day (most of that was race shape but he still had a quicker last 600m than Pelorus Jack). Bobbing should relish the step up to the mile and watch for him late, while Mushaireb did beat Maktoum home first-up and only has to reproduce to run well again.

Advice: Maktoum worth a speck at the odds.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 3-10-2-4

3.Maktoum ($9)- He was a month and a half between runs last start and covered ground and made his ground out wide on a day where the first two lanes were a good advantage. He knocked up late but will be fitter for that and he beat a horse called True Enough in New Zealand over 1500m earlier this prep and that horse beat Rondinella (who has ran third to Avilius since!) the next start. Just whether that last race is strong enough? 3 subs st 0 placings and Come Along (stiff in that race) was beaten 5L in Hawk Guineas since.

10.Agassi ($3.20)- Real bulldog that keeps improving. Winning time 1.7s quicker than Pelorus Jack LS, drops big time in weight and runs well again.

2.Bobbing ($5)- Won Prov Champs Final, proven at a mile and still on the up. Chimes in lat.

4.Mushaireb ($9)- Dominant win first-up where he beat home Maktoum. Can he reproduce? Wide draw sticky?

Other runners:

1. Live And Free ($18), 5. Braces ($55), 6. Fuchu ($16), 7. Prometheus ($12), 9. Pelorus Jack ($27), 11. Spencer ($27), 12. Somethingvain ($166), 



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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick Kensington preview tips May 4

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