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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick Kensington preview tips April 22

 Apr 21 2019

Randwick Kensington April 22

**Prices locked in yesterday for betting strategy and best bets (deductions apply)

Best bet

Race 4 no.5 C'Est Davinchi $9.50

I like this race from a betting angle and I think C’est D’Avinchi is a good gamble here at $9.50. I loved his recent trial without the blinkers on (they go on race day), he can save ground from the low draw and I reckon he will be strongest late.

Next best

Race 6 no.3 Waruna $7.50

I think the $7 about Waruna seems a fair gamble. I reckon the wet track was against her in a much stronger race fresh and she trialled well prior. With luck from the gate, she is the best horse in the race for mine.
Best roughie
Race 6 no.2 Rapture Miss $31 and $7
She is in the same race as Waruna but I just can't let Rapture Miss go around without something on at $34 each-way. Her trial was super, she sprints well fresh and she looks well over the odds here.
Other roughie
Race 5 no.3 Subban $19 and $3.90
Won two of his past three and defeated two subsequent winners last start with 61kg too. Just seems overs here.
 
 

Rail out 5m history

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6              F7          F8          F9

31/10/2018       Kenso    5m        G3         Only one winner further back than 3rd on day settlong buit could make ground. Wider the better late                                                   

1/01/2019         Kenso    5m        G3         Pretty fair track. Hard fence maybe not best part last half card. Could make ground                                                

20/02/2019       Kens      6m        S5          No real lanes just on pace. Hard to win from back       

Assessment: Included the 6m rail due to lack of date. If anything says, will be hard to make ground.

Weather: Fine, good track expected.

Wind: Gentle

Betting strategy

****I’ve decided to offer the two different strategies going forward. The normal strategy will be the same one I’ve been doing since August, the long game strategy will be the 100 unit betting bank idea. I understand that both strategies will suit different styles of punters, so please pick the one that suits you and gamble responsibly.

Normal strategy

Suitable for punters who don’t have a punting bank but rather an allowance to punt with each week. Strategy works on the theory of 1 unit equals $1 and strategies will be from 0 to 150 units max for a meeting depending on confidence for a meeting. Remember, you can still adapt this to your budget but dividing every unit if your budget is less. A few more bets on most occasions will be included here to spread the risk across a race day.

The long game strategy

Suitable for those with a punting bank set aside for punting longer term. This service will reflect more closely the way that I will play a race day and will generally involve less bets and a more patient approach. For those that don’t have a punting bank but prefer this strategy, think of what your maximum bet is on a horse and then divide it by 2 to find out what a unit represents for yourself (our maximum bet in this service will be 2 units). A max 2 unit bet won’t happen too often and I would estimate between 0 to 5 units (could be higher) being spent on one particular race meeting depending on confidence levels.

More of an explanation of this method in the article prior to this one on the Sky Racing website labelled betting strategy.

Normal strategy (spend so far for this meeting-80 units)

Race 4 no.5 C’est Davinchi 20 unit win at $9.50 and 10 unit place at $2.60

Race 5 no.3 Subban 5 unit win at $19 and 5 unit place at $3.90

Race 6 no.3 Waruna 10 unit win at $7.50 and 10 unit place at $2.30

Race 6 no.2 Rapture Miss 5 unit win at $34 and 5 unit place at $8

10 unit quaddie (starts r4, 12.5%): 1st leg: 5,1,3,9. 2nd leg: 3,5. 3rd leg: 3,2,5,1,10. 4th leg:5,2.

Results for betting strategy: 39 unit profit (72%POT, outlay 100 units)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

 

The long game strategy (spend so far for this meeting:3.5 units)

Race 4 no.5 C’est Davinchi 1 unit win at $9.50 and 0.5 unit place at $2.60

Race 5 no.3 Subban 0.25 unit win at $19 and 0.25 unit place at $3.90

Race 6 no.3 Waruna 0.5 unit win at $7.50 and 0.5 unit place at $2.30

Race 6 no.2 Rapture Miss 0.25 unit win at $34 and 0.25 unit place at $8

Results for betting strategy: 104.2 units (4.2 unit profit, outlay 2.75 units)

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices

Preview:

Race 1

***No prices for this race due to insufficient data

Overview: Tricky race. Czarson beat subsequent Golden Slipper winner Kiamichi on debut and then ran a brave fourth in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic. He has trialled well leading in and looks the obvious pick. Somerville has done everything right at the trials and should jump and run here, while Calescent is only coming off a first-up win at Wagga but he ran quicker time than the 1000m open race that day and could represent value here. Splintex and Human Nature have also trialled up well.

Advice: Always tough with so many first starters.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 1-7-11-8

1.Czarson- Two nice enough trials heading in. 3rd Gosford 800, 1st Ncle 800.Beat Kiamichi back in December and then wide in Magic Millions. Tongue Tie first time. 60.5kg the leveller.

7. Somerville- 2 x 800m trials at Warwick Farm- won first in OK time, 2nd one 2nd to Disruptor in very fast time. Dis0ruptor 2nd to Anaheed only start. Jumps well, on speed.

11.Calescent- Jumped fairly, mustered to lead before holding off subs winner Miss Geneva first-up. .1s quicker 1000m open race on day and QL600. Consider.

8. Splintex-Two trials- 1st won ovr 742m won at Randwick in good time, 2nd one 1045m Rwick took sit and given easy time.

Other runners:

2. Covert Ops-Scr

3. Dr Kardoo- Jumped well took sit, covered ground on debut and finished off solidly. Natural improvement off that.

4. Human Nature- Jumped well, led and won a 90m Rhill trial in solid time. Not under a lot of pressure late.

5. King’s Champ-Scr

6.Mareno- 4th to Human Nature in recent triak- Jumped OK, Covered ground, bit keen, finished off under own steam.

8. Splintex-Two trials- 1st won ovr 742m won at Randwick in good time, 2nd one 1045m Rwick took sit and given easy time.

9. Vaporizing-Scratched. Well held two runs to date. 2 trials this time in won the 1st and O’Mugee pushed along to beat him in 2nd but he was going better. 2 x Rhill trials 900m.

10. Vox Pop= 3WNC on debut and taken wider 600m. Struggled late. Trialled well prior. Started $20 on debut.

12. Just Field- Scratched. Two trials- 2nd to Yitai Synergy first one over 740 and then sat off speed, pushed along to finished 5th Rwick 1050 in second one. Betting?

13. Le Figaro- Won both career trials including only trial this time in on the 740 pro ride at WF. Horse ran second in that trial beaten 4.5L by Dubious its only start.

14. Varinka- Stuck on OK in good mdn on debut behind a couple of nice enough types. Race .3l quicker 2YO boys mdn. Trialled well since when could have won heat but 3rd Rwick 735.

 

Race 2

Overview: Agassi has the A-grade form line coming out of the Carbine Club last start. The race was run in strong figures. I think he is a better wet tracker but he drops a lot in grade here (has to lump 62kg). Smiling City comes off solid races in Melbourne and looks the danger, while Jullkis is in form and looks next best.

Advice: Agassi on top.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 1-2-10-11

1.Agassi ($2.10)- 1L away in a Carbine Club which was run in strong figures (not much slower than Doncaster on day). Loves wet tracks, dry track run over 1000m was OK. 62kg the leveller.

2.Smiling City ($5)- Rolls forward. Won mdn against 4 rivals (second won Mdn since) and then led and knocked up in benchmark race last start. Race was run .8s quicker than the B78 on day too. Solid figures.

10. Savigne ($10)- Half to Kermadec. Plugged away fresh. Has been competitive at a mile before. Form around Lady Cuvee last time in reads just ok. Still want to see her do it?

11.Aurman Zou ($11)- Yet to win a race but has been competitive last few. Gets a soft run. Others more upside?

Other runners:

3. Jullkis -Scratched. Won Cl1 last start but figures were soft. 8L slower than the 1400m Mdn and most of that was L600. 4th and 6th have both won since though and 1600m should suit (won 1800m).

4.Word For Word-scratched.

5.Pinvincible- Scratched.

6. Ritmico ($25)- Comes through Jullkis race. Chequered path in straight came to outside and did cop a bump too. Is that the right form? Doubt it.

7. Lady Cuvee - Scratched. Did start $3.50 first-up but seemed to have her chanc. Again through the Jullkis race. 3kg swing on Julkiss.

8.Purton ($12)- Well held behind Julkiss and co two back (was a soft track though, best runs dry) and won at Orange small fields either side.

9. Alison Of Tuffy- scratched.

12. Neshmiya ($25)- Won MDN two back, just fair last start. Needs to lift.

 

Race 3

Overview: Tricky race. Difficult To Get just might jump to the front here, get a breather for 200m and she will give a kick at the top of the straight. It just comes down to whether she can hold on over the last 200m. Mocassin Miss should have won first-up at Wyong and will be closing off strongly, while the Godolphin runners Colombina and Medovina are both capable. Fox Swift is also a chance if she produces her best.

Advice: Slight leaning to Difficult To Get just because of the map.

Confidence rating on race: 4/10.

Selections: 4-10-6-7

4. Difficult To Get ($7.50)- Consistent without winning this prep. Ran well here for third 4 runs back. Can be a bit slow out of gates sometimes and other times jumps well. Should lead, kick, just last 100m holding your breath. Worked to find front LS.

10. Mocassin Miss ($6)- Stiff not to win first-up at Wyong. Held up until 200m and dived late. 4TH QL200 of day there. 1150m, dry track her set up. Just the map?

6. Colombina ($4.20)- Good win in average figures LS. I was against her there but this is a winnable race again. Overraced a bit the start prior but still disapp. Just missed first up in weak form race and figures wise soft as well.

7. Medovina ($7)- One soft trial coming in, asked for nothing there. OK fup 1100m here last prep when not easy to make ground and back along fence not best part.  Disappointing after that though.

Other runners:

1.Fox Swift ($10)- Two trials slow out in both and then mustered. Cruised to line in 1st when 3rd RWICK 1045m and then not asked for anything 5th 1050m Rwick. Disappointing last prep. Has won only start this t/d in OK figures. Prefers soft?

2. Anna’s Joy ($18)- What you see is what you get with her. Up on speed and provides a kick. Beaten in country grade first-up and then 5th WF last Wed over 1200m didn’t run it out. Place at best.

3. Bella Success- Scratched.

5. Voila- Scratched.

8. Miss Rodarte ($14)- Won an average maiden on debut and then disappointing last prep at her only run where jockey felt something might be amiss. Trial coming in was soft when 6th Rhill 900m. Showed speed, faded under no pressure.

9. Second Island ($10)- Closed off well behind Strome at Gosford (race slow L600 though). Before that was OK when out in trip. Hard to catch but has a nice finish on her day. All 3 x wins at 1000m.

 

Race 4

Overview: I like this race from a betting angle and I think C’est D’Avinchi is a good gamble here at $10. I loved his recent trial without the blinkers on (they go on race day), he can save ground from the inside and I reckon he will be strongest late. Kolding is being priced on hype and he is yet to justify the $2 price tag. The gelding operation might turn him around but where does he map too (potentially back). What Could Be is overs at $17 as well and he had no luck last start.

Confidence rating on race: 7.5/10.

Advice: Keen on C’est D’avinchi each-way here at $9.50.

Selections:5-1-3-9

5. C’est Davinchi ($6)- Like him here over 1300m fresh. Produced some big sectionals from the back last prep and loved the way he closed off for 4th in a Rhill trial without the blinkers on. Can save ground early and should be there to punce. Tempo cost him win LS before a break.

1.Oriental Runner ($9): Just going OK of late but I reckon he is a better horse when able to lead and he should get that here. QL200 of the race LS but figures weren’t great out of the race and winner of race was coming off a Muswellbrook win.

3. What Could Be ($13)- Probably should have won last start with even luck and just got held up. I reckon the wider gate suits as he can swing to the outside. 1300m on outer limits but drying track helps.

9. Kolding ($3.10)- Gelded. Always promised plenty but fair to say he hasn’t lived up to it to date. Won MDN first-up last prep and only horse further back than 4th to win that day at Canterbury. Was unlucky behind Cuba two runs before a break then disapp. Trial solid. Gets back?

Other runners:

2. Spencer ($26)- Just battling prior to last start win in country grade. Got up on the fence and won well but figures and form ordinary out of race (9 susb st 1 placing). Mixing form.

4. Watchdog ($13)- Soft trial coming in not asked much there. No blinkers trial? On race day. Needs to improve but can. Only win last prep benchmark race Wyng 3L slower day than Mdn and that was L600. Yet to reel off big figures?

5. C’est Davinchi ($6)- Like him here over 1300m fresh. Produced some big sectionals from the back last prep and loved the way he closed off for 4th in a Rhill trial without the blinkers on. Can save ground early and should be there to punce. Tempo cost him win LS before a break.

6. Bella Success ($8) Won first-up last prep when speed on and she got her preferred wet track there. Mixed form last prep. Soft trial coming in.

7. Budderoo Knight ($17)- Held up a touch in straight first-up but was just fair there. Extra trip and drier ground will suit. Bit one paced?Won 2nd up first 2 preps and then just fair last 3 2nd up runs.

8. Catmosphere- Scratched. Had his chance at Wyong LS and runs prior just average.

 

Race 5

Overview: I thought the $31 was a big price about Subban here and it’s the type of race that could throw up a result. He has won two from three this prep in easier grade and he did beat two subsequent winners last start. Mangione is the horse to beat and he is progressing the right way. Californiafirebird gets the blinkers back on and runs well, while King’s Peak and California Firebird dead heated last start and also have claims.

Advice: Subban the value but Mangione the one to beat.

Confidence rating on race: 6/10.

Selections: 3-5-2-4

3.Subban ($12)-Won 4 from 10 including 2 from 3 this prep. Only flop on a wet track. 1800m logical progression (wins 1600m and below).2nd/4th both won since.

5. Mangione ($2.60)- Far from disgraced Tulloch then too good in good figures LS. Improving type and horse to beat.

2. Californiafirebird ($6.50)- Too wet last start but trialled well since with blinkers back on. Go back on race day. Run two back was good at Rhill- went forward, had to go back when couldn’t get in. Good finish.

4.King’s Peak ($8)- Solid win LS (identical time to Mdn on day but slower to 600 so better overall performance). Drawn well.

Other runners:

1.Fun Fact-Scratched (raced Saturday)

6.Highway ($14)- Got home OK LS behind King’s Peak and co. Extra trip and good track suits but can she make up 4.5L?

7.Seababe ($55)- Beaten 9L by Mangione last start. Needs to lift. Drier helps.

8. Rightousness ($11)- Cardiac arrythmia two back forgive, better effort last start. Drops in weight and will stick on.

9.California Longbow-scratched.Nothing between him and King’s Peak last start and they meet om same weight terms here. 1st crack 1800m. Ran on two back but winner won by a long way.

10. On The White Turf- Scratched (raced Saturday)

11.Plagiarist ($14)- Bit keen first-up, sat up on speed and battled and just fair. More depth here but will be better for the run.

12.Misty Mountain Hop ($111)- Hard to recommend.

13. Base Camp ($55)- Blinkers again. Recent form just fair. Would need to improve.

14. Blast- Likely to be Scratched.(raced Saturday)

 

Race 6

Overview: I must admit my market was completely different to this one when I did it so I’ve adjusted a touch to respect the different opinion. Having said that, I think the $7 about Waruna seems a fair gamble. I reckon the wet track was against him in a much stronger race fresh and he trialled well prior. With luck from the gate, he is the best horse in the race for mine. I think the $31 and $7 a place is also very silly about Rapture Miss here. I loved her trial and she won well first-up last prep. I have to be against D’Oro Rain and Pop Girl at the prices. They seem unders to me.

Advice: Back Waruna to win at $7.50 and something small on Rapture Miss each-way at $31.

Confidence rating on race: 7/10.

Selections: 3-2-5-1

3. Waruna ($5)- Plain first-up but I reckon the heavy track was against her. Back on dry big plus. Good thing beaten Canterbuyry last prep and won prior (both weak form races). Progressing.Trialled well before first-up.

2.Rapture Miss ($15)- Loved the way she closed off when 2nd 920m Moruya trial. Was chasing a horse yet to race though. Won first up 1400m Class 2 Moruya last prep came from well back. Will be doing the same. Heat stress last run before a break.

5. Bring The Magic ($7)- Got home well fresh behund Kylease in quickest of 4 x 1200m races on the day. Extra trip helps. McEvoy rides.

1.Guipure ($13)- Soft trial coming in, keep on the bit there when 6th Rhill 900m. Only 1 trial first-up 1400m with big weight but had a good prep last time in. Not far away fresh, placed Flem. Won Moe.

Other chance:

10. Pop Girl ($8)- Went back in trial overraced, closed off 3rd WF 1200m. Bolted in Mdn before break. 2nd and 4th both won mdns since. 6-7L slower than 1600m B64 on day different shape but not getting carried away with this.

Against:

6. D’Oro Rain ($7)- Seems so short at $2.70! Disapp two back but got through conditions well LS. Was a slog and time was slow but raining on race day hard to assess. 3rd/4th/7th all well held since.

Other runners:

4. Aimalac Millie ($45)- Not far away in bunched finish last start but had a few chances of late.

7. Alert By Sea ($67)- 3 of 5 wins at 1400m but hard to have on last two runs. Out back and battled.

8. To Your Health ($15)- Went forward and stuck on behind Strome at provincials last start. Her ov time about identical to BMTM on day.

9. Cuban Sizzle ($30)- Soft time on speed and too good at Tamworth. Ov time 2L slower than maiden but completely diff race shapes. This is much harder..

11.Red Chandelier ($11)- Stuck on OK last start but winner was wide and overracing and still won. Too wet and outclassed prior. Rolls forward.

12. Alison Of Tuffy ($67)- Should sit closer than last start but this is tough.

Race 7

Overview: I like the look of Julian Rock here and I was just hoping we would get a better price that’s all. He was really go on inferior ground first-up and there has been five winners out of that race. The blinkers go on and he looks the one. Obelos was brave when wide last start and he looks the danger, while the value in the race lies with Be Mindful and he is flying this prep. He will drift back but look out for him late.

Advice: Julian Rock on top but hopefully drifts? Be Mindful the value.

Confidence rating on race: 7.5/10.

Selections: 5-2-13-11

5. Julian Rock ($2.60)- Loved his first-up run off a nice trial. Had to go back to inferior ground in stragith but closed off well in race run 7L quicker other 1400m race on day. Blinkers on, 1600m winner. 5 winners out of the race too. More than 1 month between runs?

2.Be Mindful ($4.50)- QL200 of the day last start when winning against the tempo. Good win against tempo 3 back as well and 2 back just didn’t handle heavy. Gets back again but flying this horse.

13. Vega ($12)- Beat Julian Rock home three back and two runs since solid. Honest, I just prefer him on wet ground.

11.Nobu ($12)- Back from NZ. Copped nasty check on point of turn in Derby. Soft trial coming in. Kick off point for Qld carnival?

Other runners:

1.Calculated- Scratched. Getting better with every run this prep. Led latest and stuck on. Wasn’t really settling before that so prob best to roll forward again? Fitter again. Up in weight, down in grade.

3. Magicalease ($15)- Run off feet first-up, good second-up although race run to suit those closing off. Didn’t have a lot of room late. 1600m looks logical progression.

4.Brother In Arms- Scratched. Is always thereabouts but he is too one paced for mine to get involved in a betting proposition.

6.Obelos- Scratched. Too keen fresh and then big run second when WNC in race run at strong speed and just missed. Only win was a mile overseas. 3rd up. Map?

7. Pelorus Jack ($30)- Just battled against Obelos and co LS. Won a 1200m trial since but needs to lift on LS.

8. Ligulate- Scratched.

9. The Cartoonist ($30)- Bobs up from time to time but just fair first-up and then chopped out at 350m when he went for a run second-up. Battled after that. Can imp dry but needs to.

10.Bocelli ($12) Good two back in Country Champs qualifier and then handled wet track LS. 1600 for first time back on dry. Improver.

12.Burbank- Scratched. Best runs wet ground and 2nd/3rd/4th all failed out of win two back.

 

14.Empreror Harada-Scratched. LS winner but beat little and time was 2-3L slower mdn on day and all L600 too. Risk.

15.Volpe-Scratched. Entitled to do more second-up way race was run (suited run ons tempo did). Has won at a mile before but needs to lift.

16. Gretzky - scratched.



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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