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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Randwick preview tips April 6

 Apr 5 2019

Randwick April 6

Hardest to beat

Race 2 no.3 Dealmaker $2.50 (rated $2.30 now, not a heap of value now)

Best roughie

Race 9 no.16  I Am Serious $19 (rated $14) 

Race 4 no.12 Queen Of Kingston $21 (rated $13)

Plenty of other roughies in betting strategy!

All prices quoted below are fixed odds with TAB

 

Betting strategy (additions to strategy Saturday morning in bold)

Race 1 no.1 Bivouac 5 unit win at $4.80

Race 2 no.3 Dealmaker 15 unit win at $2.70

Race 3 no.3 Zalatte 5 unit win at $9

Race 4 no.12 Queen Of Kingston 3 unit win at $26 and 9 unit place at $6

Race 5 no.4 Self Sense 5 unit win at $14 and 10 unit place at $4.20

Race 5 no.11 Gallic Chieftain 5 unit win at $16 and 5 unit place at $4.60

Race 7 no.6 Chapada 10 unit win at $6.50

Race 7 no.9 Stars Of Carrum 2 unit win at $12

Race 7 no.3 In A Twinkling 2 unit win at $31 and 4 unit place at $8

Race 8 no.9 Shoals 5 unit win at $10

Race 9 no.16 I Am Serious 7 unit win at $23 and 8 unit place at $7

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 582 units profit (12%POT, 4979 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

**** Not playing quaddies in strategy today but here are my early quaddie and quaddie numbers for those interested****

Early quaddie (starts r3)- 1st leg: 3,6,4. 2nd leg: 12,1,4. 3rd leg: 4,11,19. 4th leg: 12,13,1,2,10,11. 

Normal quaddie: (starts r7)-1st leg: 5,9,8,3,11. 2nd leg: 9,4,7,2. 3rd leg: 16,18,6,20. 4th leg: 2,12,9,1. 

Rail true:

History Randwick rail true-                                    

1/04/2017         Rand     TRUE     h8         Rail in run DYNAMITE (B4 TURN) fence/pace straight                                                   

27/05/2017       Rand     TRUE     s6          Perfect track                                              

5/08/2017         Rand     TRUE     S6          Could run on OK but 2 horse width off + further best groun                                                   

6/01/2017         Rand     TRUE     G4         Swoopers advantage 3-4 wide Hard to lead and win or be on pace near fence                                                  

17/02/2018       Rand     TRUE     G4         Fair track early- wider the better later on                                                     

*7/04/2019       Rand     TRUE     G3         Hard to make ground a lot of day but no real pattern in terms of lanes                                                      

26/05/2018       Rand     TRUE     G4         3 wide off and beyond best ground                                               

15/09/2018       Rand     True      G4         Pretty fair track                                         

13/10/2018       Rand     True      H9         Adv to be on pace here most of the day. Lanes were fine- best ground outside fence but only a few horses went there late                                                

15/12/2018       Rand     True      S6-7      Fence not the place to be- 2-5 lanes and then wider later                                                  

26/01/2019       Rand     True      G3         Pretty fair track- some races felt like fence not best but three winners day on fence. No dis to be on speed prob touch on pace but could still run on                                                     

*This meeting last year-

Track- Fine day on Saturday- Working on a soft 7.

Assessment- Generally getting a bit off the fence here in the true position. Sometimes advantage on pace but normally pretty fair. This day last year it was hard to make up ground as a general rule but it was a good 3.

Race 1

Overview: This looks a nice race for Athiri providing the track isn’t too wet and she has the A-grade form lines here and she did pull up with the thumps when not far off the Golden Slipper winner last start. Having said that, she is $2.20 now and I can’t see any value there. I don’t think the gap should be as large as it is between her and Bivouac so for that reason I will lean his way. He beat Cosmic Force on a wet track earlier this prep and then finished fourth in the Todman. Stronger looks best of the rest but the winner should come from the first two mentioned.

Advice: Athiri seems too short now but the horse to beat all the same. Slight value in Bivouac so he goes on top.

Selections: 1-8-2-5

1.Bivouac ($4.10)- Beat Cosmic Force wet track and then 4th in Todman on firm. Nice tickover trial since. Just missed a run in Slipper. Would prefer wet but a chance either way.

8.Athiri ($2.45)- Has the A-grade form here and she was beaten 1L by Lyre in Blue Diamond lead and Blue Diamond. Drew wide in Diamond so had to give them a start as well. Pulled up with the thumps behind the Slipper winner on a heavy track last start. Can bounce back here.

2.Stronger ($12)- Beat Dresden Green on protest and then struggled in the heavy ground LS. Building towards something and third-up now on home track.

5.Killin ($15)- Blinkers 1st time. Just a bit keen first-up and it probably cost him the race. Close up to Dresden Green ties in with Stronger (who beat Dresden Green by protest two starts back).

Other runners:

3.All Cylinders ($24)- Soft lead and stuck on OK behind Tenley and then WNC in the Black Opal last start. Trialled well since. Bit of speed here?

4.Cardiff ($49)- Won his Mdn last start and went too hard in front in Silver Slipper prior. Just seems to have been overrated the whole way along. Same time as other mdn but off a quicker first section.

6.Not Feint Hearted ($24)- Sat wide and won well on debut but time was 2L slower than fillies division and query on how strong the horses were behind him. Might have been suited by heavy as well.

7.Depth That Varies ($73)- Beaten by a horse with only fair form at Muswellbrook last start and the time was 2L slower than the other 2YO race on the day. Prefer others.

9.Evening Slippers ($15)- Nice enough win first-up. Same overall time as Cardiff off slower tempo (3L slower 1st 400m). Big step here and 3rd,5th,6th out of that race all well held since.

10.Libertini ($25)- Got home OK in trial but hard to recommend here,

11.Shining Eagle ($200)- Trial OK, Saved from Wednesday for this. Prefer others.

 

Race 2

Overview: The showers on Thursday night have altered this race a touch. Ringerdingding looked hard to beat on a drying surface but I reckon he is just a dry tracker and it’s a risk of sorts now back on a soft 7.  Dealmaker is the one for me on the soft track and he wasn’t far off Ringerdingding in the Australian Guineas and he did beat that horse home in the Autumn Classic prior. He gets a nice swing in the weights and the blinkers go back on. Purple Sector is going better than it looks on paper and he is a chance to place at odds.

Advice: Two horse race but confidence is building with Dealmaker on the soft 7 now. Struggled on heavy last start but has ran well in soft and heavy ground in past.

Against: Ranier- Dealmaker and Ringerdingding had him covered easily in the Aust Guineas and he seems short at $7. Jury’s out on him IMO.

Selections: 3-1-4-6

3.Dealmaker ($2.30)- Too wet LS. Right alongside Ringerdingding in Aus Guineas prior and beat Ringerdingding in Autumn Stakes prior to that. Back to 1600m looks ideal. Caught inferior ground last start when too wet.

1.Ringerdingding ($2.90)- Too wet LS v Winx. Very good in the Aust Guineas prior, very good (ql200) in the Futurity and he would be a cheeky chance in a Doncaster so he should be winning this. Very hard to beat and well suited under set weights + pens conditions. Won Mdn S7 but prefers dry for mine.

4.Purple Sector ($24)- Good first-up, OK second-up, flattened third up forgive and too wet fourth up. Rough place claims. Not going as bad as everyone thinks.

6.Fun Fact ($18)- Should have won two back no luck at all and then stuck on latest. Would want a wet track but even then I doubt he is up to the class of the top few.

Other runners:

2.Ranier ($13)- Too wet LS but well held behind Ringerdingding in Aust Guineas and just fair prior to that. Place preferred.

5.The August ($36)- R/up midweeks last couple but this is another level and yet to tick the 1600m box as well.

7. Winning Partner- Scratched.

8.Shuffle Up ($72)- Wants firmer but doubt he is classy enough here.

9.Home Made ($289)- Prefer others.

10.Blast ($289)- Blinkers 1st time. Others preferred.

11.Agassi ($200)- Stuck on wet ground LS in weaker grade. Wants wet. Hard to recommend.

Race 3

Overview: Amangiri does look the horse to beat here and she should roll to the front and be hard to catch. Don’t worry about the wide gate and she should get across comfortably. I want to be forgiving of Zalatte last start and she pulled up lame there. She has always shaped as an Oaks filly. She looks overs here. Clementina should have won the NZ Oaks and I’ve had something on her at $41 in the Australian Oaks next week as I think she will have the flashing light on here. Princess Jenni was a strong winner in Melbourne over the mile last start and must also be respected.

Advice: Amangiri the horse to beat but seems short enough?. Could speck Zalatte at $8.50 in this race and then Clementina at $41 in the Australian Oaks market for Saturday week.

Selections: 3-6-4-1

3.Zalatte ($7)- Got warm late fresh and then pulled up lame second-up forgive. Always shaped as a real Oaks filly early in the prep and she can bounce back here.

6.Amangiri ($3)- Progressive filly that looks htb here. Smashed the older horses last start and win prior was super too. QL200 of the race last two starts. Rolls to the front here from wide draw and will be hard to beat. Wet or dry no issue and bred to run 2000m. Mum won 1900,- relation to mum Amalfi won a VRC Derby.

4.Clementina ($11)- Still a maiden but she should have won the NZ Oaks and she had no luck at all. Run prior was also super. She might have to give them a start from the gate but I’ve had something on her in the Oaks at $41. Expecting a positive run here. Probably wants it firmer- untried worse than Dead 6 in NZ.

1.Princess Jenni ($10)-Set up for her last start but she was good to get home over the top at 1600m. Not sure by that form line? 3rd was coming off a Pakenham mdn prior? By High Chap and out of a Zabeel mare. OK late in the Kewney two back. Must respect.

Other runners:

2.Futooh ($65)- Blinkers off, wink again-Won twice at Randwick but seemed to have enough late LS and she is yet to prove she can run the trip.

5.Maracaibo ($28)- Tough win when covering ground in Adelaide LS. Did run 4th at big odds in the VRC Oaks last year.

7.Lady Of Shallot ($65)- Month between runs and struggled LS in KG Classic. Seems to be playing catch up.

8.Welsh Legend ($32)- Showed promise last prep but beaten a fair way KG Classic (shot to front top of straight). Wants a drying track perhaps although should have won on heavy at Cant last prep? Needs to lift.

9.Rocknavar ($32)- Nice tickover trial at Randwick and did win over 1800m LS at Eagle Farm. Only won narrowly though and the form out of the race has been mixed. Overall figures in race a touch soft.

10.Romani Girl ($16)- 4th in KG Classic over a mile. Seemed to have enough there late? Was a month between runs there. On trial at 2000m.

11.Mrs Madrid ($97)- Missed the start the other day and stuck on OK. Normally handier to the speed and that should be the case here. Wants it wet and even then a win would shock.

12.Aliferous ($65)- Racing country-provincial- WNC on heavy last start and tired late. Good winner prior although in country in average race. Needs to lift.

13. Pressure ($28)- Closed off solidly at Sandown LS but entitled too off strong early tempo. 2nd up at 2000m now. Beaten 12L in Ethereal LS.

14.Etheridge ($97)- 2000m could suit but figures from last few races not strong enough.

15. Bye Bye Belle ($55)- Strong at the end of 1900m last start and race overall time same as B64 on day. That was off a quicker early tempo though and l600 WASN’T QUICK. 2nd,3rd,4th beaten since.

16. Head Noises ($78)- Scratched. QL200 of the race in both starts to date although hasn’t threatened winners of races. 2000m should suit but class?

17. Rock Dove ($65)- Won Listed race in Hobart earlier in prep but well held behind Princess Jenni LS and just OK in Tas Oaks prior.

18. Gem Dealer ($25)- Scratched. Was good behind Costello and then caught on wrong part of track in heavy ground LS. Finished half a length of Angel of Truth who has won Tulloch since. Good roughie.

19. Loves To Rock ($194)- Scratched. Figures in recent starts not good enough. Should at least see out the trip.

Race 4

Overview: Hard to go past Noble Boy and perhaps the only concern is the report of a below par gallop on Tuesday morning. He is likely to get soft conditions on Saturday and if all is well, he does look very hard to beat. The horse that interests me at odds here is Queen Of Kingston. She was less than a length off La Scopa in the Qualifier and she was 1000m up to 1400m there and just peaked late. The word is she is going to try to lead, she loves soft ground and she is proven up to 1500m. She also gets a 1.5kg swing on La Scopa. She could give plenty of cheek here. La Scopa looks the obvious danger although she is yet to prove herself on anything worse than a soft 5. Bennelong Dancer is airborne and is proven on wet ground, while the like of Unbiased and Bocelli seem to be ticking over well and are knockout chances here.

Advice: Noble Boy looks the hardest to beat but I think the value lies with Queen Of Kingston each-way.

Selections: 12-1-14-13

12.Queen Of Kingston ($13)- 2 runs back both solid. Was 1000 to 1400m in the Qualifier though and soft record is strong. Could lead and give plenty of cheek! Gets a 1.5kg swing on La Scopa too.

1.Noble Boy ($2.55)- Put in an ordinary gallop on Tuesday by all reports but all he has done at the races makes him the horse to beat here. Brilliant win in the wild card and 1400m at Randwick on a likely soft track is ideal.

14.La Scopa ($4.80)- Emerging mare- Already proven at Randwick. Good win in Qualifier although set up for her. Two soft wins have been on soft 5s? Not sure if it’s worse?

13.Bennelong Dancer ($14)- Finished fourth in this race last year and this doesn’t look to have the depth of last year. Bolted in qualifier and recent trial was super. Wet record is good too.

Other runners:

2.Unbiased ($16)- Has been in fine form of late. Qualifier victory was dominant and was at least 1.7s quicker than the other two 1400m races on the day (3rd in heat beaten 7L behind Noble Boy in Wildcard but was a heavy track?). Wet track seems OK too.

3.Al Ma Haha ($24)- Wide and too good in Goulburn heat. Was $26 there? Tickover trial good since. Doesn’t want too wet?

4.Tim’s Principal ($70)- Wide draw and doubt he can turn the tables on Unbiased.

5.Ori On Fire ($80)- Got into the race by default after two horses in front of him in Qualifier scratched. Yet to win beyond 1200?

6.Westlink ($44)- Two strong wins this prep but hasn’t beaten anything the query (form behind him has been very average). I would be surprised if the winner came from this region? Untried worse than S5.

7.Bocelli ($20)- Looks to have come back well. Just missed in Goulburn Qualifier and then I thought he trialled a touch better than stablemate Al Mah Haha coming into this. Wet would be a ?

8.Safe Landing ($41)- Could get a soft run on speed but Noble Boy had his measure LS and should extend that up to 1400m.

9.Noel’s Gift ($165)- Prefer others.

10.Texas Storm ($54)- Hasn’t won in his past 5 starts and although he had a big weight, he was beaten in a Class 2 LS.

11.Sons of Bourke ($305)- Prefer others.

15.Lucciola Belle ($24)- Run in Newc Newmarket was sound and she has a nice turn of foot on her day. Won Mdn heavy, placed soft. Highway runs last prep just fair?

16.Lady Moronton ($203)- Prefer others.

17.Moobi ($30)- Much better in the Wildcard. Like him coming outside horses. Place chance if he gets a run.

All other emergencies would need to lift if they get a run.

                                                                 

Race 5

Overview: I think Self Sense looks decent value here and he has been winning on dry tracks but has a tremendous record on wet ground. If we get the rain predicted, he looks well suited and the 2600m should be no issue for him. Supernova is likeable but he isn’t well weighted here and he looks short enough all the same. He was dominant last start but this is a new level. Shraaoh peaked on his run last start but is proven up to 2800m and I think he would prefer a slightly firmer track. Gallic Chieftain can improve with the blinkers on and he finds a wet track here. His last three third-up runs have resulted in a third and fourth in the Herbert Power and a win in the Stoney Creek Cup. He looks overs.

Advice: Can back two horses here at odds- Self Sense and Gallic Chieftain. No knock on the fav other than price and he is the hardest to beat.

Selections: 4-11-19-14

4.Self Sense ($9)- Flying on good tracks this prep and is a better horse on wet ground which he should get to some degree on the weekend. Beat Ventura Storm and High Bridge last start. Hard to knock.

11.Gallic Chieftain ($11)-Blinkers again. OK in Yarra Valley Cup and he gets a big swing in the weights on Self Sense there (4.5kg in his favour). Wet track would help as will extra trip. Won at 2500m Flem. Not a bad roughie for the place.

19.Supernova ($4.50)- The horse on the up. Flashing light on first-up and then far too good second-up. A new level here and actually poorly weighted (should be getting 10kg off a horse like Self Sense but is only getting 2.5kg). Proven wet, won up to 2400m overseas and placed behind promising stayer Ghostwatch at 2800m. Just the knock is the price. Seems short enough.

14.Shraooah ($6.50)- Seemed to have his chance in Manion Cup and he peaked on his run there. Has won 2800m heavy Flem and 2800m overseas so proven over further than 2600m. Firmer track could help if he gets it.

Other runners:

1.Muntahaa ($27)- Just fair in Aus Cup. 2600m should suit though. 4 wins from 240-2800m. Wants a firm track. Can improve.

2.The Taj Mahal ($32)- Hasn’t done enough this prep to get me interested.

3.Vengeur Masque ($32)- OK in Auckland Cup and was a winner at Mv 2500m prior. Form and figures out of that race just fair.

5.Sir Charles Road ($25)- Did win this race last year with 1/2 kg more. Lead up form sound and seems to get through soft OK. This year’s race looks stronger though.

6.Ventura Storm ($32)- Blinkers off, visor on. Too wet LS. Good behind Self Sense prior. Wants a drying track. Hard horse to catch.

7.Auvray ($36)-WNC last start and forgiving that. Going better than it looks on paper but he needs a drying track. Needs soft 5 at worst. Can run a big race if he gets it.

8.Vin De Dance ($32)- Personally prefer him at 2000m and 2600m is a risk for mine.

9.Zacada ($54)- Struggled in wet track LS. Ok prior when giving winner 7KG in NZ. Ran 2nd in Syd Cup last year but 10th in this race.

10.Etymology ($54)- Blinkers off- Been a bit disappointing his last couple and this looks a task off recent form.

12.One Foot In Heaven ($18)- Kept coming in Manion Cup on preferred wet ground. 2nd in the ST Leger at Randwick 2600m last prep although died on run a touch there late. Multiples if wet.

13.Casterton ($81)- Needs to lift.

15.Semari ($18)- Good win in the Epona but this is much tougher. Manion Cup rated several lengths better than the Epona on the same day. On trial at 2600m as well.

16.Goathland- Has won at 2650m but he looks to be coming from weaker form lines here for mine.

17.Rodrico ($80)- Would need to improve.

18.High Bridge ($53)- Hasn’t gone on this prep as of yet. Only 1kg swing on Self Sense from last start. Prefer others.

 

Race 6

Overview: Probably the race on the card I really don’t have a firm opinion on to be honest. I thought Tenley looked the value on a soft 5 but will she get through a soft 6-7? She clearly didn’t handle the wet track in the Slipper but it won’t be as wet here. Castelvechio will appreciate this strong tempo and he will be savaging the line, while Loving Gabby and Microphone were both very good in the Golden Slipper and race as if they will appreciate that bit further. Kiamichi must be respected but her best runs to date have been on heavy tracks. The rain Thursday night brings her into it though. Probabeel also has claims and she has been targeted at this since her eye-catching run in the Magic Night. The blinkers go on.

Advice: Loving Gaby on top. Tenley could get out to a silly price but will it be too wet? No firm opinion on this race.

Selections: 12-13-1-2

12.Loving Gabby ($5)- Wide in Slipper and kept coming. Freshened from the Diamond there so fitness should improve but what does that take out of her. Didn’t have a lot of luck in Blue Diamond prior. By I Am Invincible but her mum was stakes placed several times at 2000m.

13.Tenley ($9)- Didn’t go a yard in wet in Slipper. Form prior was faultless including Riesling in quicker time than Todman (which Yes Yes Yes won and then was enormous from a wide gate) and she is very strong late in her races. JMac choose Loving Gaby over her? There some staying blood in pedigree. Can bounce back.

1.Castelvcchio ($7)- Good to win first two starts although both races set up for him. Only got warm last 200m last start when reeled off 11.48 QL200 of race against Microphone. Kept fresh for this with a tickover trial where he was pushed along. By Dundeel and half to Spring Champion Stakes winner Maid Of Heaven. Must respect!

2.Microphone ($7)- Chased hard in Slipper and beat Cosmic Force comfortably at 1200m prior (and Castelvechio too). Dry is a plus and his mum did win at 1400m.

Other runners:

3.Dubious ($66)- Scratched. Blinkers off. I think he has been a bit overrated the whole way through and looking elsewhere. Mum won at 2000m so could get the extra trip but I thought his Slipper run was just fair.

4.Strasbourg ($33)- On the quick back up. Bellevue Hill went out quick LS and they had their chance to beat him. He will be fitter. Held ground in Todman prior.

5.Bellevue Hill ($13)- Pretty dominant last weekend and it makes you wonder where he would have finished in a Golden Slipper? Gets the trip. Track no issue either way. Query is more speed here and he will have company where he was allowed to roll at own clip LS.

6.Rome ($67)- Scratched.Overraced a touch and no match Pin Sec Black Opal. Went back settled well LS but didn’t finish off on heavy.

7.Dresden Green ($27)- Rolled along LS and held on weaker race. Rated OK compared to older horses on day but has company up front here (Other main leader Bellevue Hill same stable and Godolphin’s Kiamichi).

8.Spring Loaded ($35)- Blinkers 1st time- Too bad to be true LS and good behind McLaren (has been disappointing since) first-up prior. Best run is on a soft 7 though? Again, query whether this is the right form.

9.Bullet Fly ($133)- O/came slow tempo to score LS but this is much tougher. 2nd and 4th failed against Bellevue Hill last week to show form is questionable as well.

10.Kiamichi ($8)- Gone to a new level last two starts but both on heavy tracks. Did it both ends in the Slipper. Her form on drier tracks has left a bit to be desired though. Safely held by Anaheed, beaten  by Czarson and fell in against Sebrakate on debut. Wants rain. ½ to Cossetot who is running in the Derby so extra trip should be OK.

11.Probabeel ($10)- Blinkers 1st time, tongue tie first time, visor off. 7 week break from Karaka Million where he got home strongly in Magic Night behind Kiamichi. QL200 of the race there. 3 weeks between runs up to 1400m for the first time. By Savabeel and mum G3 placed at 2100m. Must consider.

14.Crystal Falls ($44)- Good from the back in two runs to date. Breeding a ? at 1400m as is her class?

 

Race 7

Overview: Chapada put the writing on the wall with a slashing run in the Rosehill Guineas and he should get onto a firmer surface here. He was unlucky in the Victorian Derby last spring and should go close. There probably isn’t a great deal of value in the $5 all the same. Stars Of Carrum took on the older horses last start in the Mornington Cup and he was really good off a slow tempo. He looks well placed with that 2400m run under his belt. I think the best roughie in the race is In A Twinkling providing the track isn’t too wet. He would be top pick at the odds on a good 4 but the query is whether he will get through the ground. It was just too wet for him in the Tulloch Stakes but his two runs prior were nothing short of amazing in the NZ Derby and Avondale Guineas (read below). Global Exchange looks to be looking for 2400m now, while Angel Of Truth was very strong the other day and should run a big race from the front (showers Thursday night are a plus). Declaration Of Heart next best. Good race.

Advice: Chapada to win and something small each-way In A Twinkling.

Selections: 5-9-8-3

5.Chapada ($5)- No luck in Rosehill Guineas and should have finished much closer. Cardiac arrythmia prior to that and ran on well first-up. Should have went close in a Vic Derby no luck there and firmer track helps. Goes close.

9.Star Of Carrum ($8.50)- best of the closers in Mornington Cup against the older horses last start. Was just getting warm at MV prior. 2nd in VRC Derby last spring. We already know he stays. Bowman on.

8.Global Exchange ($9.50)- He is a winner- Race set up for him last 3 starts but he closed off to score in each of them. Right next to Cossetot last start who was beaten 3L in Tulloch. On trial at 2400m. nice trial at Randwick since LS. All starts dry.

3.In A Twinkling ($19)- Could be the best roughie in the race here. Put a pen through last Saturday and he is just not a wet tracker- His two runs prior were nothing short of sensational- Made a long run when second in the NZ Derby (took off a long way out) and second in Avondale Guineas prior to that at 2000m behind Surely Sacred where he was very stiff. Wide throughout, caught in speed duel as well. Well held behind Madison County three back on wet ground. Should have beaten Sacred Star in an Avondale Guineas and beat Arrogant in a NZ Derby. Has to be overs if we get anywhere near a Good 4. Love the fact they’ve paid up the late entry fee as well. Query is whether he can peak again and he had some gut busters in NZ. 11th run this campaign?

***Others to include in quaddies etc:

11.Angel Of Truth ($11)- Strong from front in Tulloch. Bias helped but he was holding them. I personally think he is a wet tracker so he would want another wet track. Ran a quivker time than Verry Elleegant though. Mum won over 2400m.

7.Platinum Invador ($28)- Too far back NZ Derby and then ran his race in the mounting yard last start in Tulloch. Likely improver but needs to. 10th run this campaign.

Other runners:

1.Extra Brut ($32)- Scratched. Won the VRC Derby. Hasn’t raced since the Aust Guineas due to conditions and had a 1200m trial since. Not the ideal lead up 1600m to 2400 a month between runs. Wants a drying track. Fresh legs here.

2.Madison County ($19)- I don’t think he saw out the 2000m last start and he seemed to peak late on his run there. The extra 400m concerns me. Obviously a nice horse but I’m not sure he is a real stayer.

4.Arrogant- ($9) Big run against TAS but that was unexpected. Well held behind IAT prior and that was a wet track LS so can he reproduce on firmer? 2400m also a ?

6.Surely Sacred ($32)- Don’t think he ran out Derby trip or Rosehill Guineas- I’m against him here,

10.Aramayo ($38)- Blinkers off, ear muffs 1st time. Needs to find a few lengths,

12.The Chosen One ($28)- Strong late in what looked a weak G2 last start. Shuffled back and no luck in Derby, taken on 800m from home in Avondale Guineas prior. In right stable.

13.Cossetot ($38)- Overraced and had his chance in the Tulloch. 9th run this campaign.

14.Declarationofheart ($17)- Gloal Exchange seemed to be going better than him in Melbourne last start. On trial at2400m. Cossetot hasn’t franked that form line since?

15. Costello ($28)- OK in the Rosehill Guineas on what may have been an unsuitable wet track and his form prior was super in midweek grade. Set for this all along from a great stable of stayers and should stay. Top 3 hope at odds.

16.Twinspier ($450)- Hard to recommend on recent runs.

17.Shaman ($150)- Blinkers again. Should be up on speed after being slow out in Tulloch. Hasn’t shown enough to win a Derby IMO.

18.Frankely Awesome- Scratched.Chased home Pohutukawa Kembla Grange Classic and then really good from the back to have QL200 in Vinery Stud Stakes. Backs up in a week here against the boys. Wants the track to remain in soft range or even heavy as best performances on rain affected surfaces. Gets back. Vinery Stud Stakes time was slower than Tulloch but later in day?

19.Yulong Tavion ($450)- Prefer others.

Race 8

Overview: Trapeze Artist and Osborne Bulls head the top of the betting and rightly so but is $4 a tad short? This is a very competitive race and as a result I can’t get either of them that short. I think the value in the TJ lies with Shoals. She is open to big improvement here second-up and she loves Randwick. Pierata comes more into play the wetter the track is and in the past 6-12 months his best performances have been on heavy tracks. Santa Ana Lane wants a drying track, while Redzel and Sunlight are hopeless either.

Advice: Shoals looks the value. A great race but a tough one.

Selections: 9-4-7-2.

9. Shoals- ($8) Good behind Trapeze Artist first-up off a setback and I don't think she is a first-up horse even though her fresh record is good. The fact she was coming off a slight setback where she missed the Oakleigh Plate (blood picture was 100%) meant there had to be improvement. Loves Randwick, drying soft seems OK. Gets a good run off strong speed. Just looks overs. Had some bruising on heel but hasn't missed any work?

4.Pierata ($5.50)- Hidden run first-up and then back in trip and rattled home against pattern in Galaxy. Peak ratings in last 6 months both came on heavy tracks. Can he reproduce on drier surface?

7.Osborne Bulls ($5.50)-Broke 32seconds last 600m in Lightning first-up and then flashed home again in Newmarket. Flying this horse. 3rd in Everest last spring when scouted wide to find best ground. Wet or dry no issue. Just short enough in a very competitive race but huge chance. 2 wins from 3  attempts third up and a third in Everest.

2.Trapeze Artist ($6)- Too wet first-up and then broke the track record second-up in Canterbury Stakes when able to dictate. Box seats here you would imagine. Normally peaks 3rd up- Won a Black Opal, Golden Rose, second in Everest. Trial since fair but without blinkers. Diff horse with blinkers.

 

Other runner to consider:

3.Santa Ana Lane ($7.50)- Poorly weighted first-up but closed off solidly. Meets Sunlight 4kg better off and Osborne Bulls 2.5kg better off from that day. Nice tickover trial since and won the Premiere T/D second up last prep. 3rd up probably best form but very underrated sprinter on top of ground.

Other runners:

1.Redzel ($10)- Dual Everest winning sprinter- Copped a check at 600m but disappointing in Galaxy where badly weighted. Before that, just missed to Ball Of Muscle in average form race. 5 subs st best placing 7th. Jury’s out. Won Everest last year on wet ground and just wonder whether a few of these have caught up to him? You can’t write him off though!

5.Vega Magic ($42)- Blinkers off again, winkers on. Very keen in recent trial- Might be a bit fresh here? Very talented sprinter on his day and you could argue he should have won an Everest on a dry deck here. Query is fup.

6.Ball Of Muscle ($68)- Credit to Joe Pride- he has this horse at the top of his game at 8YO. Won 4 of his past 5 starts including 3 at G2 level. Scratched from Galaxy due to wet track but his run prior was super to beat Redzel first-up. 1200m the natural query at this level.

8.Fell Swoop ($113)- Loves Randwick 1200m but he faces some of the best and he just looks that one level below.

10.Champagne Cuddles ($242)- Looks outclassed here.

11.Sunlight ($11)- She is a ripper- Won the 10 from 15 and won the Newmarket and William Reid her past two starts. Well weighted Newmarket and to be fair Spright would have gone close with even luck in William Reid. Faces some tough, harden sprinters here but can’t knock.

Race 9

Overview: Really good edition of the Doncaster here with a host of chances as the market suggests. I think there are a few horses over the odds. The one that interests me at big odds here is I Am Serious. I would love a bit more rain for her but I thought her first-up run was a cracker and then she pulled up slow to recover last start. She drops to 50kg, has a great record at the Randwick mile and she has Avilius form last prep. Fundamentalist went within a whisker of beating The Autumn Sun last start and he would have been favourite if he lined up here. Shillelagh just didn’t handle the wet track last start but her run in the Australian Cup prior was a cracker and the query is the soft track and whether the mile is too sharp with two runs at 2000m. Alizee, Brutal and Hartnell are sure to all have plenty of admirers here as well and it’s hard to knock them.

Advice: She has already been $35-$23 but I Am Serious looks the value here each-way.

Against: Fiftystars ($10)- I know he has won the 8 from 12 starts and will appreciate the soft track but I just can’t find the depth to his form to win a Doncaster. Last start win was 3-4L slower than the Coolmore Classic on the day and the horse he beat there has failed since. Throw in the wide gate and I just can’t get him that short.

Selections: 16-18-6-20

16.I Am Serious ($14)- Slow to recover in Coolmore- Run prior had mile written all over it. Loves Randwick mile. Would love a bit more rain. Whether she is good enough I’m not sure but I reckon she runs well here.

18.Fundamentalist ($9)- Flying this prep- Beat all bar The Autumn Sun when chasing a hot speed last start.2nd to Nakeeta Jane prior. Gets in with 49kg. Up on speed. The Autumn Sun would be fav for Doncaster so you have to keep that in mind.

6.Dixie Blossoms ($14)- Outstanding win In the Coolmore Classic and she loves Randwick..6s quicker than Ajax last start which Fifty Stars won. Gets in with a winnable weight and wet/dry no real issue.

20.Brutal ($8.50)- Super run behind Winx but I’m always a bit wary of those that firm big time off one run (particularly on a wet track). His form prior was OK without raving about and he is yet to tick that mile box. Gets in light, tricky draw?

Others to include:

1.Hartnell ($9.50)- Outstanding horse- Won an Epsom with 57kg last year and flashed home in the All Star Mile after held up top of straight as well. 58kg the leveller naturally but Bowman on.

13.Aloisia ($50)- 2nd in a Villiers but gee it was set up for her and found the line well at Rosehill in the Coolmore. This looks tough.

Other runners:

2.Le Romain ($20)- Honest but prefer him on wet ground these days and I am suspecting this track will improve. Sticky draw, big weight, looking elsewhere.

3.Alizee ($10)- Great mare and she is 2/2 at the track and distance. She has won a Queen Of The Turf and Flight Stakes here. Both of those are against the girls though and she did have enough late in the All Star Mile. 56.5kg is not easy for a mare. Terrific chance but this was an afterthought as well after being scratched last Saturday due to heavy track. 3 weeks between runs.

4.Land Of Plenty ($38)- Too wet for him LS. 1L off Alizee prior and meets her 3.5kg better off at the weights here. Won a Toorak at a mile last year but meets Hartnell 3kg worse off from that day. Wants it dry.

5.Dreamforce ($40)- Honest galloper. Beaten home by Brutal at his past two clashes and actually meets Brutal 1.5kg worse off for being beaten more than 2L behind that horse LS. Has Winx form.1600m a big query at this level.

7.Shillelagh ($26)-Soft track against.Too wet LS but beat Avilius in Aus Cup prior. Needs a drying track. Won the Empire Rose at a mile in the spring and actually meets Fundamentalist 3kg better off for being her home comfortably there. 2 X 2000m runs now back to 1600m the query? Last one on heavy too. Epsom run last spring was a cracker.

8.Kluger ($32)- Japanese horse. Can’t tell you a lot about his form. Worked well on Tuesday morning at Canterbury and Tommy Berry felt he was sharp enough to run well. Form hasn’t been that good around him in Japan (at least in 30 days after every race).

9.Widgee Turf ($32)- Won at 1400m LS in Good figures Flemington- Blanket finish but does drop 8kg. Has form around Dreamforce and Hartnell. His only win at a mile was in a benchmark race and that’s a concern.

10.Unforgotten ($18)-Ran well in an Epsom last year. She has been OK this prep without raving about. Expected more in Ranvet. Drawn wide, gets back.

11.Life Less Ordinary ($111)- Can often pull out a run fresh but this is a tough ask. Two trials have been fine.Wants it dry.

12.Eckstein ($111)- Won the Southern Cross fresh but just fair since. Looking elsewhere.

14.Siege Of Quebec ($74)- Wants it dry but just not going well enough to win a Doncaster?

15.Fifty Stars ($10)- Won the Ajax, time .6s slower than Coolmore. Drawn wide and unlikely to get heavy track here. Seems short enough?

17.So Si Bon ($49)- Super in Aus Cup and meets Shillelagh 5kg better off there for a 1L margin there. Too wet LS? Tongue tie again. Poor winning strike rate.

19.El Dorado Dreaming- Scratched.Flying this prep- Right alongside Fundamentalist and then 2nd to Dixie Blossoms in Coolmore (1kg swing in weights). Scratched from Vinery Stud Stakes to be saved for this. Just has to get a long way back.

Violate ($220)- Prefer others.

Race 10

Overview: Pretty open race to finish the day and track bias and pattern will be key by this time. It could well be playing out wide and if that’s the case it brings Multaja into play. She is poorly weighted but her win at Hawkesbury last start was sectionally strong (quickest late splits of the day) and she was a moral beaten in the Red Roses against a few of these last spring. Spanish Whisper, Fiesta and Mizzy are all well placed under the weights here but they are all dropping back in trip and how will they handle that. Prophet’s Thumb can improve sharply if the track is on the improve, while this looks to be a target for Madam Rouge where for a few others it may have been an afterthought?

Advice: No firm opinion here. 

Selections: 2-12-9-1

2.Fiesta ($8)- Too wet LS and freshened back to 1200m. Handles soft, heavy?. Can overrace but well weighted here.

12.Multaja ($7.50)- OK from back first up when finishing behind Spanish Whisper. Really good latest when on best part but first run heavy and clocked best late splits of day, Back to 1200m now.

9.Mizzy ($7)- Gone to a new level this prep. Last two runs outstanding. Query is 1500m on wet track back to 1200m here? Will they be too sharp? Has the A grade form and well weighted.

1.Spanish Whisper ($8)- Beat Multaja home at 1200m (Multaja gets a 3kg swing) and then WNC last start but still too strong over 1400m. Back to 1200m here.

Others to consider:

10.Madam Rouge ($9)- Kept fresh for this after not running out 1400m. Almost beat Nakeeta Jane 1200m prior. Trialled really well in between runs. Gets through wet (second to Pohutukawa S7).

11.Causeway Girl ($14)- Won  narrowly first-up in fair figures (form out of race fair). Just missed Red Roses although Multaja was stiff as well.

3.My Xpression ($18)- Closed off nicely in recent trial. Form around Avantage who has won in Aus already this autumn. Gets through soft.

8.Fiera Vista ($33)- New stable now with Snowdens. Never let go in recent trial. Won mdn by big space first-up last prep. Bit keen in trial and will she measure up? Given big push by stable this week- respect.

6.Prophet’s Thumb ($19)- Scratched. Too wet LS but form prior was super. Still yet to tick that 1200m box but can bounce back on firmer.

Other runners:

4.Melt ($100)- Prefer others.

5.Bleu Roche ($30)-Won the Red Roses last spring but Multaja was stiff there. Just fair this prep. Blinkers 1st time. Only soft run, won on Soft 5.

7.Eawase ($40)- Poked through late in latest trial. OK against older horses firstup last prep. Hasn’t really gone on since early days?

13.So Taken ($33)- Started unders LS and seems to have been a touch overrated the whole way through for mine.

14.Into The Abyss ($49)- Trialled well but just fair fresh?

15.Laburnum ($49)- Really good behind a nice horse LS in Final Award. Last two runs have been at 1400m now back to 1200m?Wide draw as well.

16.Ragazze- scratched.

17.She’s Furline ($400)- Not going well enough.

18.Buckle Up Baby ($400)- Nice win from back latest but slow l600. Outclassed here,

19.Invictus Salute ($39)- Better but got tired late over 1100m last start. Now 1200m?

20.Alison Of Tuffy ($400)- No.

21.Jen Rules ($30)- Scratched. Has Multaja form and likes it wet. Sneaky chance if gets a run. 2nd up improvement to come as well.

22.Tatiara ($200)- Hard to have.



Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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