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Brad Davidson Rosehill Preview and Tips March 30

30/3/19 Mar 28 2019

Rosehill March 30



Race 8 no.5 Mask Of Time $3.70

Next best

Race 3 no.3 Platinum Invador $8.50

Best roughie

Race 7 no.10 Yogi (mainly place) $19 and $3.60


Betting strategy-

Race 3 no.3 Platinum Invador 7 unit win at $8.50
Race 3 no.5 Angel Of Truth 2 unit win at $16 and 3 unit place at $3.40
Race 4 no.7 Princess Posh 5 unit win at $5.50
Race 5 no.11 Maximus 5 unit win at $12
Race 7 no.10 Yogi 3 unit win at $19 and 7 unit place at $3.60
Race 7 no.6 Patrick Erin 5 unit place at $6
Race 7 no.15 Nettoyer 5 unit place at $5
Race 8 no.5 Mask Of Time 15 unit win at $3.70
10 unit Quaddie- (starts r6, 11.1%)-1st leg-3,8,1,11,4. 2nd leg-10,1,3,6,15,14. 3rd leg-5. 4th leg-10,7,5


Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 623 units profit (13%POT, 4850 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.


Rail out 6m.

6m history Rosehill-

Track bias           F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7              F8          F9

25/03/2017       Rosehill 6M        H9         On pace adva + closer to fence sl a                                                  

3/06/2017         Rose      6m        G3         Fair- 2-5 off best ground but fence OK too                                                     

24/02/2018       Rose      6m        G4         Fairish track but wider better- Hard rail seemed wrong place                                                

2/06/2018         Rosehill 6m        G4         Fence real advantage early                                                      

26/08/2018       Rose      6M        s5          Well off fence, wider the better                                                      

26/09/2018       Rosehill 6m        S5 and worse     Big fence day here. Key adv first 6 races and then got wide with rain thereafter.                                                 

17/11/2018       Rose      6m        G4         On pace adv but more tempo rel. Fence early races but evened oit midway                                                      

8/12/2018         Rose      6m        G4         No bias. Fair track!   


Assessment: Bit of a mixed bag. Fence was off last week but rail goes out another 3m.                                


Track: Heavy 10


Race 1

Overview: Hard to go past the favourite Bellevue Hill but I can’t take odds-on when he is yet to race on wet ground and yet to tick that 1400m box. I’m not sure what La Tene has been beating in Melbourne but at least she is proven at this trip. Strasbourg next best but there are other chances as well like Fortress Command.

Advice: I can’t take odds on about the favourite but I’m not really keen on something to beat him either.


1.Bellevue Hill ($2.50)- Botled in Canberra and then bit keen in front but kept sticking on LS. By Pierro so bred to get 1400m.

3.La Tene ($5.50)- Not sure what he has beat but should land outside Bellevue Hill and he has 1400m form. .6s slower B84 last start but he ran quicker time than older horses start prior. Untired wet. ½ TO Gaulouis who gets through wet.

2.Strasbourg ($5.50)-3 wide fresh (seemed to have cover) and stuck on late. Always looked like a horse that would appreciate further and he was first-up 1200m. Handled soft 6 in past.  Blinkers off.

5.Fortress Command ($11)- 2/2 but race set up for him LS and race last 600m was quite slow (2nd horse has won a mdn since though) and that’s a big concern for me. At least ticked the 1400m box.

Other runners:

4.Rome ($19)- Overraced a touch and maybe a touch close fresh. Wasn’t a vintage edition of Black Opal and overall time said that too., Bred to appreciate further.

6.Autocratic ($28)- May not have handled wet track first-up when well beaten. OK in a Breeders’ Plate last year.

7.Spring Loaded- Scratched. Really good first-up in Canonbury although the winner (McLaren) hasn’t gone on since. Disappointing last start when always well back. Blinkers 1st time.

8.War Baron- Scratched. Just struggled firsr-up and may need even further and more time,

9.Dawn Too Good ($113)-Missed the start and hunted up and then peaked on debut. Wet track may have been against last start. Needs to lift.

10.Chabrol ($113)-3wnc last start when beaten by Bullet Fly who was held by Fortress Command two back. I doubt that Is strong enough form.

11.Persan ($32)- Comes into play wet track.

12.Seporto ($226)- Prefer others.

Race 2

Overview: Interesting race. I was keen on Rondinella but that horse is racing in the Tancred instead. Moss ‘N’ Dale gets his preferred heavy surface and he is the horse to beat now. Goathland looks the danger. Libran has a terrific second-up record and he hasn’t for 15 starts but he does come through stronger form lines.

Advice: Moss N Dale on top.


2.Moss N Dale ($2.60)- Outclassed two runs this prep but he loves wet ground and 2000m. Won Craven Plate heavy 2000m and also won another race heavy in Sydney. Needs it wet.

8.Goathland ($4)- Tough win first-up in strong figures (form just fair- 9 subs st 2 placings) and then stuck on latest behind Red Cardinal. Raced as if maybe wants further now?

3.Libran ($7)- OK fresh and his second-up record is super. 3rd in Chelmsford second up last prep, 2nd in Sky High second up 2000m second-up 2 preps ago. Won Kingston Town second up three preps back. Well weighted. Prefer drying track. 8YO now is he past his best this prep? 15 runs since last win.

12.All Too Soon ($6)- OK in three runs back but hasn’t really gone on all the same. On the quick back up. Last start rating just fair? Takes on boys now.

10.Main Stage ($14)- Copped a check late two back but was just going fair. Whacked away latest although slow recovery. Just going fair.

Other runners:

1.Harlem- Scratched. Won the Aust Cup last two years. First up was good, second up ql200 than Avilius and then won Aus Cup. Beaten 7L in a Ranvet after winning Aus Cup last year. Pretty well off at weights. Doesn’t want a wet track.

4.Tavago- Scratched. Too wet for him LS in Sky High? OK first up prior. 3rd up off long break.Wait for improvement.

5.Auvray- Scratched. Liked his run last start. WNC and not suited by heavy track but stuck on. Stays at 2000m, does he want further now? Also needs it dry. Figures

6.Emperor’s Way- Scratched. Took off too early two back and then looked the winner LS and just missed. Figures just fair. Six subs st out of it for 2 placings. Prefers dry IMO.

7.Almost Court- Scratched. Better effort second-up at 2000m. 4 subs st 0 placings out of race so far. Seems to prefer dry. Won 3rd up last two times he has been to third up in a prep including 2000m Randwick.

9.Taikomochi ($17)- Had his chance last start. Stuck on all the same in the Canberra Cup. Form prior was in a fair bit weaker grade.

11.Rondinella- Scratched. Well weighted here and she is flying over in NZ. Should have finished closer to Danzdanzdance last start after she copped a check before the turn and lost all momentum. Danzdanzdance 3rd in the Ranvet since. She bolted in two dry tracks earlier prep then beat Vin De Dance. Form around her in NZ nothing special but just has a sense of timing here.


Race 3

Overview: Good race despite the small field. Madison County is a deserved favourite and he was very good in the Randwick Guineas although he was entitled to run on there and he is on trial at the 2000m. Platinum Invador is an interesting runner. He had no luck in the Avondale Guineas three back (forget he ran) and then was a soft winner at Otaki and then was very good from the back in the New Zealand Derby. Gee, I think In A Twinkling is a nice horse. I just think he wants a good track.  Angel Of Truth comes into play now it’s wet.

Advice- Platinum Invador the value. Angel Of Truth looks a good roughie.

Selections: 3-5-1-4

3.Platinum Invador ($5)- Good winner two back at Otaki and had no luck in Avondale Guineas three back. Held up in Derby and found the line well. Runs well here. Soft looks ideal

5.Angel Of Truth ($11)- Good late two back at Hawkesbury. 1400 up to 1900 3wnc last start and came again on line against older horses. Wants it wet I reckon. That last start would have toughened him up.

1.Madison County ($2.60)-Really good from back in Randwick Guineas (six weeks between runs) although entitled to run on too considering race shape. OK prior to that when 3rd Karaka race and won Levin Classic over Vernanme. First crack beyond 1600m and off a small setback where scratched last week.

4.Cossetot ($7.50)- Tough performance in G2 2040 at MV last start. Got gun run but race run 2.5s quicker B64 on night. Been up a while? Gets a good run. 2/2 soft.

Other runners:

2.In A Twinkling ($9)- Made a long run when second in the NZ Derby and second in Avondale Guineas prior to that at 2000m behind Surely Sacred where he was very stiff. Wide throughout, caught in speed duel as well. Well held behind Madison County three back. Looks to want it dry?

6.Shuffle Up- Scratched. Doubt he appreciated wet track last start. Good at Rosehill prior on best part of ground when 2nd to Costello, who has been well held in Rosehill Guineas since.

7.Silent Dreamer ($65)- Well held last start and trial at the trip. This is harder than LS.

8.Mangione ($65)- Extra trip will be OK but doubt he has the class to go with a few of these.

9.Carif ($32)- Good winner when 1400m up to 1850 last start but it was set up for him. Much stronger here but has upside.Still wants to run about and still learning.

10.Shaman ($32)- Hard to recommend.

Race 4

Overview: Interesting race. Princess Posh likes it wet and I want to give her the nod over Noire (who was good when hard to make ground out wide last start). Dyslexic is flying but does she like wet ground? I’m not sure she loves it.

Advice: Something small on Princess Posh.


7.Princess Posh ($4.50)- Just continues to raise the bar this mare. Won at Newcastle defeating Savatiano last few strides and then 3rd in G1 Coolmore Classic when she had to go right back from the draw. Gee, it was a cracking ride from McEvoy! Hasn’t won beyind 1400m yet. Wet track would help.

4.Noire ($4.75)- OK fresh, disappointing second up and then made ground out wide in Coolmore Classic when not easy to do. Draws a softer gate now.

8.Dyslexic ($3.60)- Loved her fresh run when her late splits were some of the best of the day (she just peaked late there). Looked the winner LS in the Ajax and then just peaked late again. Time was .6s slower than Coolmore Classic on same day that most of these come through but different race shape too. I reckon she is not that at home on wet and the drier the better. Her overall time LS 1L slower than Princess Posh.

5.Sedanzer ($12)- Slow to recover and too short for her first-up. Tickover trial since OK. Last prep when beaten 4L behind Avilius only time she hasn’t won in 5 second-up attempts. Got out over further last two preps though?

Other runners:

1.Alizee: Scratched.

2.Daysee Doom ($10)- Fup run was fair and then tickover trial and more than a month between runs since. Has won a Golden Pendant and Coolmore Classic second-up but been below her best a few runs now? Loves Rosehill but was just fair first-up here.

3.Oregon’s Day- Scratched. Good win fup Melbourne where had gun run in what developed into sprint home then it was too wet for her in Coolmore Classic. Ran second in this race last year. Wants a drying track but should map well.

6.Invincible Gem ($12)- ½ length off Noire but she has had a few chances this prep. 602 days since last win.

9.Naantali- Scratched. Bit keen last start and may not have finished off that well as a result. Form around her of late just fair. Others in front of her.

10.Insensata ($40)- Two runs fair. Has a nice turn of foot on day but for easier.

Race 5

Overview: Maximus is at big odds. He was really good first-up when missing narrowly (in front past the line) and then he had no luck second-up. The form out of both of his races has been horrible though (17 subsequent starters 30 days after each race for not even one placing). Adrossan looks the horse to beat now we are on a heavy track (3 from 3 soft). Estijaab is becoming costly and I’m risking at the short odds. Siren’s Fury is a good roughie.

Advice: Something small on Maximus at $12.

Selections: 11,4,9,6

11.Maximus ($7)-Held up until 125m last stat before working home. Forgive there, flew home prior.17 subs starters out of two races to kick off prep for not one placing (run recorded from horses one month after each race). Prefers wet for mine so wants rain.

4.Ardrossan ($3)- Trial was OK. Second to Melody Belle last start and that horse has won two G1s since that. Horse he beat two back beaten 7L by Dreamforce since in Liverpool City Cup. Has come here before and gone just fair but this is probably the right level.

9.Siren’s Fury ($15)- First-up run was a cracker/ One of only a few horses on day to make ground on fence in Triscay. Second-up tempo against but entitled to do a touch more. Soft trial back to 1200m. The six furlongs likely to be too short?

6.Estijaab ($5)- Just needed the run fresh and then not disgraced behind Ball Of Muscle and co LS when took the sit. Do they go forward? 1200m now more to her liking but jury’s out.

Other runners:


1.Manuel ($10)- G1 winner earlier this prep but gee the set up is unusual. 4 weeks between runs 1600m back to 1200m? Last 4 wins have been at 1400m or 1600m and drawn wide with speed inside.

2.Music Magnate ($20)- Took a sit first-up and was OK late. 455 days now since his last win.

3.Cellarman- Scratched. Nice horse that has been off the scene a year and is back with one soft trial. Likely to need this and further.

5.Fiery Heights ($8)- Kicked at top of straight LS in Maurice McCarten and then got tired late. Beaten 2L by Trekking there. OK prior but this has a bit of depth.

7.Brave Song- Scratched. Probably been a length or two off this level in previous preps (just one winner from 27 subsequent runners 30 days after each of his three races last prep) but he has trialled super leading in. Market?

8.Trekking- Scratched.Ran well first-up on an unsuitable heavy track but gee his trials prior were outstanding. Beaten by Brave Song last prep but had no luck. Drying track looks ideal.

10.Albumin- Scratched. Better last start but this has more depth. I reckon he is better on firmer going. Always preferred him at 1100m but he seems to be racing like looking for 1200m this time in?

12.Charge- Scratched. Does too much wrong and is overrated for mine.


Race 6

Overview: Great edition of the Vinery Stud Stakes. Verry Ellegant is the horse to beat but she is short enough all the same. She is still a touch keen in her races but she gets conditions to suit again now on the heavy 10.  Pohutukawa loves a wet track. Nakeeta Jane is ticking over well, Aristia and Qafila would both appreciate a firmer track than last start, while Scarlet Dream just might grow a leg out to 2000m here. Other chances too! Great race.

Advice: Verry Ellegant on top but short enough all the same.

Selections: 3-8-1-11-4

3.Verry Ellegant ($2.50)- Dominant on the wet track in the Phar Lap but has the performance been overrated? Overall time was slower than the Coolmore and if we compare her time with say El Dorado Dreaming than VE’s time was just .08s quicker off very similar early splits. Quite clearly loves wet tracks and will she get a heavy 10 again? I doubt it. Good run prior behind Amphritite where she beat home Fundamentalist who has since just been beaten by Nakeeta Jane and beat home El Dorado Dreaming in Surround. Also beat NJ in Rwick Guineas. Still a touch keen in the run. Ear Muffs 1st time, nose roll off 1st time.

8.Pohutukawa ($7)- Good win in Kembla Grange Classic after not a lot of luck prior in Surround when couldn’t warm up. Figures out of race just OK. 4 from 5 on soft and heavy. 2000m now. Big striding filly.

1.Nakeeta Jane ($6.50)- Classy filly- Stuck on well Randwick Guineas against the boys. Never raced on anything worse than a good 4 (trialled soft 5). Extra trip should suit.

11.Scarlet Dream ($12)- Both runs back have been eye-catching and gets to trip now she has been crying out for. QL200 of both races this time in. Seems to get through soft.

4.Arisita ($13)- Maybe a bit too wet for her last start bit she was wide as well. First-up run was encouraging. She defeated Verry Ellegant at 2000m and 2500m last prep. Can bounce back. Too wet now?

Other runners:

2.El Dorado Dreaming- Scratched. Not fat off Nakeeta Jane in Surround and then brilliant in the Coolmore Classic on a wet track against the older mares. 2000m looks the natural progression. 3rd to Aristia and Qafila Wakeful 2000m last spring. Wants it wet.

5.Seabrook ($43)- First crack beyond a mile but prefer others. Blinkers off.

6.Greysful Glamour ($58)- 2000m helps but probably needs further still.

7.Qafila ($22)- Good win in Group company in good figures first-up then too wet for her the other day in Phar Lap? Held up and good in Wakeful at 2000m last spring where she beat home El Dorado Dreaming.

9.Zalatte- Scratched. Poked through late first-up in Surround and then 2/5lame second-up. Did beat Baller last prep. Always touted as an Oaks filly and can improve sharply here. We learn more about her here.

10.Frankely Awesome ($22)- Back on track last start with good 2nd KG Classic and finished well. Failed only run 2000m but that was Spring Champion in first racing prep. Place perhaps.

12.Autumn ($44)- Bolted in KG last start. Time was only .4s slower than Pohotukawa same day off a slower early tempo. Overall time was almost identical to Scarlet Dream. 2000m?

13.Alexandria- ($350)- Outclassed last start. Respecting stable who can produce a stayer but this looks a throw at the stumps. Overraced both starts another big concern stepping up to 2000m.

Race 7

Overview: You don’t need me to tell you Avilius is going to be hard to beat but do I want to back him at $1.60? The simple answer is no. I’m still not convinced he is a 2400m horse and I know he won the Bart Cummings over 2500m last spring but he got the gun run there and seemed to have enough late. There are a few decent roughies here for mine. I loved Yogi’s last 200m in the Australian Cup and he is one that will appreciate a wet track and the extra distance. I think he will run a big race here. Another good roughie is Patrick Erin and I think he is over the odds (place) for a horse coming off a complete forgive run where he pulled up 3/5 lame. The 2400m and a wet track is a good set up for him.  I’m really respecting the Kiwi Rondinella and she should have finished much closer to Danzdanzdance (third in Ranvet since) last start. I just wish she was racing earlier in the day (looked a great bet there!). Red Cardinal and Big Duke also run well but seem well found.

Advice: Yogi each-way (mainly place) and Patrick Erin (place) and Nettoyer to place. Include Rondinella in exotics.

Selections: 10-1-3-6-15-14

10.Yogi ($13)- Liked his last 200m in the Aust Cup and he will appreciate further. The wet track will also suit. Beaten 1.3L Avilius Bart Cummings when getting 4.5kg off him and now level weights.

1.Avilius ($2)- Big win in the Ranvet although overall time just 1L quicker Rosehill Guineas. Won the Bart Cummings 2500m but got the gun run there and didn’t want it much further. Horse to beat naturally but short enough.

3.Red Carnival ($6)- Set up for him in Parramatta Cup and then relished wet conditions when scoring again against a weak field in average figures. Going well but wants more rain.

6.Patrick Erin ($15)- Loved his first-up run, looking for further second-up and then 3/5 lame, blundered on jumping and checked last start total forgive. Trialled well since. Can bounce back here.

15.Nettoyer ($19)-Ran out of her skin in Ranvet. On trial at 2400m and the wetter the better!

14.Rondinella ($14)- She is flying over in NZ. Should have finished closer to Danzdanzdance last start after she copped a check before the turn and lost all momentum. Danzdanzdance 3rd in the Ranvet since. She bolted in two dry tracks earlier prep then beat Vin De Dance. Form around her in NZ nothing special but just has a sense of timing here. Wish she went for easier race though? On trial at 2400m.

Other runners:

2.Muntahaa- Scratched. One of the major fancies for Melb Cup last year. Never in the hunt in the Aus Cup. Better form dry.

4.The Taj Mahal-Scratched. Seemed to have had his chance this prep.

5.Sound ($80)- Disappointing Aus Cup. Has form around Best Solution 2400m but hard to back off first-up run.

7.Vengeur Masque- Scratched.Some interference 250m mark LS but just fair all the same in Auckland Cup. Won at MV prior 2500m. Place looks best.

8.Big Duke ($14)- Tempo against two back and then entitled to get home LS when he did behind Midterm in a race run in good figures. On the QBU. Beaten by Red Cardinal earlier this prep and only meets 1kg better off.

9.Ventura Storm ($70)- Has run some good races in Aus but hard to have off last couple. Had his chance in Mornington Cup.

11. Auvray-Scratched.

12.Brimham Rocks ($47))- Had a really good spring but hasn’t hit his straps this prep yet. 2400m helps. Nothing between him and PE in Metrop last year.

13.Ace High ($40)- Doesn’t want any rain. Prefers dry track. Going OK. Finished right alongside Avilius in Aus Cup and you could argue he should have beat him home there. Just the track the ?

16.Doukhan ($71)- Wrong part of track LS but still made ground. Probably looking for further now but a proper wet track and he is not without a place chance. Entitled to run on LS.


Race 8

Overview: Tricky race. Mask Of Time was very good in the Ajax and he just loves wet tracks. He might be looking for further but this will be a testing race now. Kaonic and Mister Sea Wolf (good jump outs in Melbourne and runs well fresh) looks the dangers, while Tom Melbourne isn’t badly placed in this but is too hard to catch.

Advice: Mask Of Time looks hard to beat.

Selections: 5-7-1-3

5.Mask Of Time ($2.90)- Really good in two runs back from a spell. Clearly loves wet tracks. Is he looking for further now could be the ?

7.Kaonic ($6)- Made good ground and then peaked late in Ajax Stakes (quickest splits of race 600-400,400-200 and then 7th Ql200). Building this prep but wide gate the query on where he gets too. Well held behind Snippets Land two back.

1.Mister Sea Wolf ($10)- Struggled in the west but one thing about him is he has a good first-up record and handles wet ground. Jump outs in Melb good. His run in the Epsom was super. Just has to give these weight?

3.Tom Melbourne ($14)- Draws well for him to get a smother. 4 weeks between runs helps as I’m convinced he races best fresh. Only one the one race since March 2016 and we know he does a lot wrong (overrace).

Other runners:

2.Siege Of Quebec ($7)- Stuck to task first-up and has trialled well since. Beaten 12L only rain affected track run on a heavy track? Draws well to be handy.

4.My Nordic Hero ($16)- Good in a Villiers last prep- First up no official trials? Wide gate, big weight.

6.Snippets Land- Scratched.Flying this prep- Good behind Dreamforce then gave his rivals weight and was too good at Canberra. Gets through soft OK. 1500m outer limits? Peaking late at Canberra 1400m and has won at a mile but against 4 rivals and rest wins 1400m or below. Yet to place 4 runs 1500m.

8.Seaway- Scratched.Failed in heavy track last start but form on soft 7 was strong prior. Started $3.50 last start and can bounce back. Gets some weigt relief still and McEvoy to ride,

9.Invictus Prince ($16)- Refused to leave gates first-up. Trialled OK since. Now in effect firstup 1500m rain affected track?

10.Abdon ($20)- Wasn’t in best ground fresh but plugged away. Won a mile but that was on debut. Last two wins at 2000m. Does he want further now?

11.Grey Lion ($41)- Latest trial came from off them to score. Won three times first-up but all earlier in career and likely to find this too short.

12.Don’t Give A Damn- Scratched. Disappointing in two runs this prep.Better horse when he can roll in front for mine and he may do that here? Also in Mbrook Cup Fri, where does he go?

13.Salsonic- Scratched.Really caught the eye late first-up with best late splits of Liverpool City Cup. Trial since has been good. Query is wet track. Seems a better horse on top of ground as record suggests? Gets a 3.5kg swing on Snippets Land. Just wants no more rain.


Race 9

Overview: Good race to finish the day. Star Of The Seas looks hard to beat and he loves wet tracks. He was wide no cover last start and really strong late and all three runs this time in have been super. Mahalangur will be fitter second-up and gets a 2kg weight swing on Star Of The Seas, while Spring Charlie was outstanding in the provincial qualifier first-up and has trialled well since. Zourkhan loves wet tracks and must be respected here!

Advice: Star Of The Seas hard to beat.

Selections: 10,7,5,9

10.Star Of The Seas ($2.60)- All three runs have been super this prep. Up 2.5kg and will get back but handles wet/dry and on the upward spiral. Was 3wnc last start adding merit to win.

7.Mahalangur ($4.25)- Good return first-up on wet track. 2kg swing on Star Of The Seas and won second up last prep. Was first-up as well re fitness but I reckon he likes wet ground,

5.Zourkhan ($10)- Resuming, no public trials. Wants it wet as 1400m probably short enough as it is for him with wide draw and big weight.

9.Spring Charlie ($8)- Really good first-up in Prov Qualifier when second to Safado. Ran time (7L quicker Sister Sledge race on day). Trial super since. Won on soft 7. Right in this. Really progressed this prep.

Other runners:

1.Special Missile ($16)- Was able to sit closer last start but was just fair late. Better horse when he can lead and he may do that here? S5 OK, Heavy ? even though placed twice one short priced fav in mdn.

2.Take It Intern- Scratched.Former Darren Weir trained import having second prep in Aus now with K Lees. Not far away fup last prpe behind Cliff’s Edge. Good winner second up and then battled third up. Wet a ?

3.Get On The Grange- Scratched. Prefer others.

4.Up N Rolling- Scratched. Fup since May last year one soft trial. Capable horse but that set up is a ? Won fresh 1550m two preps back, missed bob of heads Sat city race fup last prep 1350m here. Market?

6.Hogmanay ($16)- Made good ground fresh- just what that takes out of him first-up from a long break? 2nd up record OK. Does he want further now?

8.Renewal- Scratched. Covered ground first-up and won in blanket finish. Late splits were good although form out of race not great. Wide draw for a horse that misses the start- Have to risk.

11.Who’s Knocking ($25)-Good from back all three runs this prep and taking ground off Snippets Land late last start. 2/2 on soft but much weaker grade. Has to give them a big start from gate?

12.Calculated- Scratched.Slow to recover first-up off long break. Won a trial since. Had Pierata form 3yo days. Doesn’t want any more rain. Gets in very light. Can improve sharply here.

13.Valentino Rossa- Scratched. Trials solid and came from a logn way back to grab 4th first-up last prep. Not like he is hopeless fresh as record on paper suggests but needs a lot to go right naturally. All 3 wins dry.

14.Napoleon Solo- Scratched. Came a long way last prep and gets in light here. Query is his trials have been OK without raving about and clearly this is a new level.

15.Don’t Give A Damn- Scratched.Disappointing in two runs this prep.Better horse when he can roll in front. Also in Mbrook Cup Fri, where does he go?

16.Albumin- Scratched. Better last start but this has more depth. I reckon he is better on firmer going. Always preferred him at 1100m but he seems to be racing like looking for 1200m this time in. 1400m looks a risk.

17.Maximus-Scratched. Held up until 125m last stat before working home. Forgive there, flew home prior.17 subs starters out of two races to kick off prep for not one placing (run recorded from horses one month after each race). Prefers wet for mine so wants rain. 1400m looks natural progression now if he runs here.

Brad Davidson - Sky Racing

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