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Sky Racing Brad Davidson Warwick Farm March 28

 Mar 27 2019

Warwick Farm March 28

Best each-way

Race 6 no.10 Gentle Persuasion (rated $5.50)

Next best each-way

Race 3 no.6 Perfect Pitch (rated $5.50)

Betting strategy-

Race 2 no.4 Badia 8 unit win at $5

Race 3 no.6 Perfect Pitch 15 unit win at $8.50 and 15 unit place at $2.50

Race 4 no.5 Toosbuy 5 unit win at $7.50

Race 6 no.10 Gentle Persuasion 20 unit win at $9 and 20 unit place at $3

Race 8 no.1 Noble Joey 2 unit win and 3 unit place both tote

10 unit early quaddie (starts r1, 10.4%)- 1st leg: 7-8-11-13. 2nd leg: 4-14. 3rd leg: 6-4-7-3. 4th leg: 4-5-9.

Results for betting strategies for 2019 racing season (since Aug 1) so far: 684.5 units profit (14%POT, 4752 unit outlay).

Gamble Responsibly. Gamblers Help 1800 858 858

Think! About your choices.

Wind: Light/gentle ENE.

Rail: 3m

Track: Soft 7 perhaps?

Rail 3m history

 Track bias

              F2          F3          F4          F5          F6          F7          F8              F9

14/02/2018       WF         3m        g4          Fence or 1-2l near it off. Wider the better again it seemed                                           

16/05/2018       WF        3m        G4         Even track could run on and win anywhere                                                    

11/07/2018       WF        3m        g4          OK early and then getting to middle last four an advantage                                         

3/10/2018         WF        3M        G4         Touch on pace early but prob 1-2 off best- got wider later in day and fence no good then                                                

28/11/2019       WF        3M        h8-9      Maybe a touch on pace but didn't play right out wide 2-5 off prob best part but norm wider when wet. Inside slightly inferior                                                     

16/01/2019       WF        3m        G4         Pretty fiar track. No disadv be on pace. Rail maybe 1/2 length to one length off. Most winners off fence but last winner fence                                       

Assessment: Expect to get out to the middle of the track here when wet. Maybe a touch on pace early?

Race 1

Overview: Always hard these races. Escondido did enough first-up to be top pick here and the extra trip coupled by the face he can settle closer means he gets the nod. Impudens has trialled up well and follow any support for him. Olympic, Recruiting To Win and Not Feint Hearted should all run well.

Advice: Leaning to Escondido but bookies haven’t missed him.

Selections: 7-8-11-13-10

7.Escondido ($4.50)- Had to go back from gate and closed off well late WF 1000m mdn. 2nd QL200 of the race. Can park closer and extra 100m helps. Bowman sticks.

8.Impudens ($5)- Won two recent trials against small fields. Shown speed and kept on going as well in solid enough times. Should push forward.

11.Olympic ($8)- Ran on well on debut at Randwick back in December in race won by Black Opal winner Pin Sec. Pushed along recent trial and finished off just fairly.

13.Recruiting To Win ($11)- Had to go back a few lengths to try get sme cover at Scone and then ran on well there. 3rd and 6th won country maidens since. Time was 3L slower than B66/Cl1 on day. How does that stack up?

10.Not Feint Hearted ($13)- Settled off pace two trials nd closed off solidly in latest one. Gate 13? By Not A Single Doubt so should handle the wet.

Other runners:

1.Avion Fury ($18)- Sat behind speed in only recent trial and closed off OK in fair time. Gate 11?

2.Bacchus ($15)- Blinkers 1st time. Not far away Rwick debut and overraced there. Sat outside lead in recent trial and faded.

3.Bullet Raiders ($20)- Scratched. 2 trials- Up on speed and pushed along in both. Held on OK.

4.Deep Sea- Scratched.

5.Dhiaga ($27)- First trial OK, Blinkers on last two trials and closed off OK. Slightly slow out with blinkers on last two trials.

6.Dr Kardo ($20)- Scratched. Nothing between him and Escondido first trial and then didn’t run on under pressure second trial. By Not A Single Doubt so should get through the ground.

9.In Waves ($36)- 2 trials just fair Blinkers 1st time- Worn blinkers both trials.

12.Prince OF Puzzle ($22)- Beaten 2L by Escondido latest trial but closed off OK there. Drawn well.

14.Valen Galtero ($109)- Needs to lift off one trial at Narrowmine.

15.Cock Match ($18)- Seemed to have chance on debut and Escondido got past him late.

Race 2

Overview: Looks a race in two and I just have them a touch closer together here. I think the $5 is slight overs with Badia and I’m happy to lean her way as a result. Wayupinthesky is the horse to beat but I thought she was short enough all the same. They look the clear two.

Advice: Badia to win.

Selections: 4-14-7-10

4.Badia ($4.30)- Loved her debut- Had to go right back and closed off very well before peaking late. 49 days between runs. Trial since super. Form out of race avg on debut but Sun Patch 4L off Microphone next start. Can settle much closer.

14.Wayupinthesky ($2.70)- Trialled super and then beaten 3.5L in Reisling. Will find this easoer. Trialled well soft and is by Snitzel.

17.Brazenpine ($17)- Scratched. Just knocked up on debut last prep on the wet track against Stronger who has gone on since. Nice, soft trial coming in. Can’t say no/

7.Compatriot ($14)- Checked at start and 2nd QL200 of the day first-up when behind Bollywood. Run was just as good as that horse for mine. Gate the ? First time race day wet.

10.Never Listen ($17)- Got back two trials and closed off OK. Market?

Other runners:

1.Aperol Sprint ($55)- 2 trials just fair for mine.

2.Apicius ($21)- Not far off Wayupinthesky first trial and then I thought Brazenpine trialled a touch better than her second trial but still nice either.

3.Artie’s Rose ($165)-Trial avg and well beaten at Tamworth debut.

5.Bella Rubino ($55)- Beaten 12L by Wayupinthesky in latest trial. Other trial average.

6.Bollywood- Scratched. Knocking on door. Badia beat her home three back and then close last two including 2nd to Evening Slippers when they gapped the rest in OK time.

8.Iskander ($28)- Trial just fair back in December. No trials since? Waller/ Bowman.

9.Madam Legend- Scratched.

11.Our Girl Sniti ($27)- Sat behind speed and hit lead in straight before collared late under little pressure in trial. Trial time slow.

12.Stick ‘Em Up ($27)- Beat Our Girl Sniti in trial. Jumped well, sat off speed and closed off well to score in slow time.

13.Varinka ($33)- Bumped into G Slipper winner in trial but well held there.

15.St Covet’s Spirit ($90)- Not far off on debut but slowest of 3 x 1100m races on day and L600 of race quite slow. Risking.

16.Precisely ($18)- Two nice sharp trials including winning latest in solid time. Well held only start though in race run avg time.

18.Sweeping Statement ($85)- Scratched. Got back gate, overraced and finished off OK on debut. Needs to improve. Wide gate?

19.Dolci ($110)- Overraced on debut and just fair that race last prep. No trials this prep.

20.Tears Are Falling ($165)- Well beaten on debut and needs to improve.

Race 3

Overview: I thought the $8.50 was a good gamble each-way here about Perfect Pitch. Green Aeon has upside but I doubt he gets it all his own way here? He looks the danger all the same.

Advice: Perfect Pitch each-way. Let’s hope they can run on.

Selections: 6-4-7-3.

6.Perfect Pitch- ($5) Liked her fresh run. Finished off well there and she will be better for that. Trialled well soft and beaten 2L Sweet Embrace only run soft. Trialled well twice heavy. Bred to like it. Won second up and extra trip suits. First run wet track.

4.Green Aeon ($3.20)- Strong win on debut when went forward and clocked QL200 of race. Second has won well since. Bred to like wet and should be OK over further. Probably won’t get it as soft on speed though this time.

7.Nuke ($13)- Too keen in front LS but chased well two runs prior to that. Seems get through wet OK. Expect to be ridden quieter. Right part of track two back.

3.Bubblesntroubles ($4.50)- Just fair first-up and then chased Red Chandelier latest and they gapped the rest. Time was some 7L slower than Ligulate B70 1400m on same day concerns me. Wants it wet.

Other runners:

1.Commander ($21)- Two trials just fair. No blinkers trials on race day. Last prep was just OK. Won a stakes race June last year but that was run in average time.

5.King’s Peak- ($18) Overcame slow tempo to win two back and then ran on latest but entitled to off quick tempo and slow L600.

8.I’m So Sweet ($12)-Slow out first-up and finished off OK. Peaked second up and Perfect Pitch got past her late. 1400m?

9.Agassi ($36)- Solid win when 1000 up to 1300m last start. Second horse beaten in a KG mdn since. This looks harder but 1400m should be OK.

10.Vitesse ($49)- Scratched. Overraces badly so sent to front LS and settled well enough and kept going. L600 was quite slow and 6 subs  st out of race for 2 placings.

Race 4

Overview: Does Nicco Lad run here or later in day? Bit to play out here.

Advice: Bit to play out here in the morning.

Selections: 5-4-9-2

5.Toosbuy ($6)- Didn’t have the best of luck fresh and he has won second up in past and finds J Mac here. 3rd and 5th both won out of last race including Flemington B80 winner. Won Mdn H10, 2nd MV B70 soft 7. Can’t say no.

4.Nicco Lad ($5)- Two nice trials coming in. Won 2 from 5 last prep and 3rd to Royal Celebration when a bit keen. Won twice soft 5. Still a bit keen latest trial?

9.Up Trumpz ($5)- Hasn’t had a lot of luck lately- gate cost him three back, check at 700 LS and just missed. Best runs lately 1000-1100 now 1200m. Won 1200-1300 but as 2yo. S5-6 ok, higher ?

1.Common Purpose ($7)- Scratched. Caught bumping duel in straight LS and just battled thereafter. 2 back peaked late. 61kg but he is a big horse.

2.Signore Fox ($7)- Wide no cover and overraced first-up and didn’t finish off as a result. 3 soft track runs just fair but two at G3 and Listed level. 61kg and gate 11?

Other runners:

3.The Pharoah ($8)- Gave a sight last two starts. Should do the same but hasn’t won for 591 days and 16 runs now. Seems to be appreciating soft tracks of late.

6.Echo Jet ($17)- Gelded, blinkers off. One solid trial but first-up since January 2018.

7.Epic Dan ($13)- Ran on solidly from back LS and has won five races on wet ground. Won three back here over 1000m but Rebel Miss faded badly late there. Gets another chance although a few more might have more upside?

8.Spencer ($30)- Scratched. Won at Gosford two back and then fifth at Kensington in a B76. Pretty disappointing there. Back to 1200m.

10.Flash Fibian ($89)- Scratched.Needs to improve.

11.Tony’s Reward ($15)- Scratched. Two nice trials. Up on speed wide and ran on and then got back and closed off second trial. Bathurst/Orange form last prep? 2 soft runs just fair.

Race 5

Overview: Fairlight looks the one on the up here although it was set up for him at Kembla Grange last time out all the same. Jake’s Hill has the best form lines for this but has been beaten 6L in two runs at 2400m (one at G1 level though!).

Advice: Fairlight from Jake’s Hill.

Selections- 3-2-8-6

3.Fairlight ($4)- Too good for Cool One, Joe’s Hoy KG and all 3wins have been at 2400m. Set up for last start but still strong. Won soft and heavy.`

2.Jake’s Hill ($5)- Both runs back have been good and it wasn’t easy to make ground out wide in his race last syart. Beaten 6L both runs 2400m but one G1 and the other overseas.

8.Makdanife ($6.50)- Straight to front and kept going to score last start. That was 2100m. First crack at 2400m. Soft track helps.

6.Equipped ($15)- Visor 1st time- Only 1kg swing on Fairlight LS. Took off before turn and peaked late. Held up start prior and then made ground inferior ground.

Other runners:

1.Plymouth Road ($27)- Race run to suit LS but outclassed. 2 of 5 wins at 2400m and rain affected track helps. Home track too. How well is he going?

4.San Fransisco ($14)- Scratched.Won Quirindi Cup then got back and closed off OK Canberra Cup. Prefer him dry track. 2nd B80 2400m at only crack at 2400m,.

5.Villardo ($25)- Outclassed LS but 2400m suits. Won a weak race at Sandown last prep over 2400m.

7.Fastnet Cyclone ($18)- Solid Gosford win and then Canberra Cup was never sighted. Won soft 2400m overseas and likes it wet. Not hopeless.

9.Free Fly Too ($17)- 3WNC and chased Makdanife there. Gets a 2kg swing. First crack 2400m.

10.Allcash ($18)- Scratched. Pulled up lame 3 back, 3WNC and just missed two back and got back and never features LS. Hard to catch.

11.Wild Sea ($15)- Lightly raced. Tempo against last 2 starts and home in 33.4 L600 two back and then laid in late off slow tempo last start. Has won Soft 7 at Pakenham.

12.Cool One ($25)- No match for Fairlight LS but gets a 2kg swing. Should be thereabouts.

13.Joe’s Joy ($18)- 3WNC last start but meets Fairlight 1kg worse off for being beaten 2.8L by that horse. Was 1800m to 2400m though

14.Celebrator ($62)- Still a maiden and prefer others.

Race 6

Overview: I thought Gentle Persuasion was over the odds here and the $9 seems a good gamble each-way. She needed the run fresh and can park closer here. Fasika obviously has upside, while Invictum Domina could be the forgotten horse here. 

Advice: Gentle Persuasion best each-way of the day.

Selections: 10-9-1-2-5

10.Gentle Persuasion ($5)- 6 week between last trial and first up run and needed run fresh. Was a bit fresh too but sit and sprint and late figures were good. 2nd has won sine out of that race.. Beaten by Major Wager only run soft but has trialled well heavy. Can land closer and runs well.

9.Fasika ($5)- Good win on debut. Did start $13 and time was 2L slower 1200m boys mdn (we can get a form line through how that winner goes earlier in day). Tricky draw after getting gun run LS?

1.Invictum Domina ($12)-$9-$14 first-up and pulled up 2/5 lame. Beat Savacool last prep and won heavy 9 already. Best performances last prep when led and doubt she does that here but still overs.

2.Ragazze ($6)- In right spot, good win first-up and has nice record. Q 3 x 1200 races on day. Placed H9, won soft/ Won 3 of 4 but she has been well placed too.

5.She’s Furline ($8.50)- Just missed to Ragazze first-up and meets horse 2kg better off. Beat Gentle Persuasion last prep at level weights but GP gets 4kg off her now. Wet runs don’t read well but did into Miss Fab, Royal Celebration in 2 of 3 runs soft ground.

Other runners:

3.Aimalac Millie ($24)- Going OK. Time LS at Hawkesbury identical to Cl2 on day off similar early tempo. That worries me.

4.Little Red Shoes ($31)- Scratched.Just fair two runs back although she will find this easier than LS. Still better form on dry.

6.Major Wager ($15)- Beat Gentle Persuasion ladt prep. Recent form OK. Prob not on best part LS (1st and 2nd came wide and she was on fence and this is easier. Won S5.

7.Lucky Helmet ($30)- Soft trial. No blinkers in trial but on race day. Won 1400-1600 last prep. Wait for further?

8.Takookocod ($30)- Backmarker that has been getting home OK. 1400 back to 1200 now. Won 2/4 soft and beaten 4L G2 this t/d on soft 7. If they overdoit not hopeless.

11.Alison Of Tuffy ($40)- Blinkers again. Well held by Ragazze and She’s Furline two back.

12.Segalas ($24)- Thereabouts but this looks tougher than last couple.

Race 7

Overview: Tricky race. Gold Mag has some terrific wet form in Victoria but how wet is it going to be?  Grand Crown also wants it wet, while Sondelon will appreciate a drying track. Betting will tell the story with import Yulong Emperor. Screamarr was good fresh and gets through wet ground but hasn’t won for a while. Vega is flying but wants it wet.

Advice: Gold Mag the horse to beat but short enough all the same.

Selections: 3-13-4-5

3.Gold Mag ($2.80)- 3WNC LS and ran on well prior but was entitled too as they went quick early and came home slow L600. Loves wet ground though. Won B64  by 5L S5, won mdn heavy 5L. 2ND Flem b70 S5- 3 Runs rain affected ground.

13.Vega ($11)- Hasn’t had a lot of luck this prep. Should have go close four back, good two back when knocked up late 1200 up to 1550m. Really good in strong rating race behind Ligulate LS in race produced 3 winners and one placings 4 subs starters. Wants it still wet. 1600m outer limits albeit winning twice here.

4.Grand Crown ($11)- Wrong part of the track LS and stuck on well. Race didn’t rate through the roof on the ay but 3 of 4 wins on rain affected ground.

5.Screamarr ($11)- Got home well fresh and has won second up in past. G3 placed and beaten less than 1L Listed race on rain affected ground. Both wins at 1300m and hasn’t won for 566 days.

Other runners:

1.Sondelon ($5)- Scratched. Good win LS where he defeated a subs Saturday city winner and Braces as well. Wrong part of track 2 back. Yet to tick wet track box and 61kg leveller but looks leader and best horse.

2.Chilly Cha Cha- Scratched. Got back wide gate fresh and never featured. Can park much closer from draw an did win 2nd up mile last oreo. Also won a 4 horse B60 S6 Gosford last prep.

6.Mr Tickets ($37)- OK fresh, never in it second-up. Capable but where is he at?

7.Yulong Emperor ($8)- No jump out I can find. Two wins overseas both at 1600m but both on good ground. Betting?

8.Silent Explorer ($9)- Won in blanket finish (0.8L covering 5 of them two back) an then tough again LS preferred conditions. Race rated fair bit lower race Vega came through on same day?

9.Sea Spirit- Scratched.L200 was strong at Kensington and 1250m to 1600m doesn’t look great but wins from 1600-2200 and has won second up in past. Scratched mile race last Wed I’m assuming due to wet track? Second-up long break 3 weeks between runs. Chance.

10.Deladies Boy ($56)- Hard to have.

11.Mandalong Tapit ($23)- Got home OK LS but they went quick and came home slow so he was entitled to run on. Needs to lift.

12.Plagiarist ($23)- Scratched. One aOK trial. Around the mark without winning last 5 starts last oreo. Could improve but needs to .

14.Collins Creek ($20)- Scratched. Won at Scone LS but horse he just beat is still a Class 1 horse. Figures much quicker 1600 mdn on day but still this looks a jump.

15.Cliff ($28)- Won a tickover trial at Queanbeyan since LS. Well beaten last 2 starts but loves a wet track and won only starts this track on H10.

Race 8

Overview: Pretty open race this with a host of chances. Falerina looks hardest to beat considering the upside, good gate and light weight. Does Nicco Lad run here? Ghostly could be the knockout if the track is suiting run on types. Noble Joey could get out to silly odds here. Other chances too!

Advice: Tough race this! I want to see scratchings before I finalise selections.

Selections: 1-4-12-15

14.Falerina ($6)-Scratched. Trial was OK leading in. Won 4 of 6 oerall. Right spot at Rhill before  abreak. 54.5kg. Never seen worse than S5.

1.Noble Joey ($13)- Resuming short break no trials. 2nd fup 1000m H9 at Randwick last prep. Won 5 of 9 soft and 2 of 6 fresh.

17.Nicco Lad ($10)- Scratched. Lovely two trials coming in. Won 2/5 last prep and placing to Royal Celebration when keen. Still a bit keen in latest trial is a concern. Gate one this time of day? Won twice S5.

4.Ghostly ($8)- Ran on OK LS and was on worst groun Rhill prior. Wins 1200-1250m but can figure if they overdo it. Wet seems to be OK.

12.Roosevelt ($6.50)- Bit keen LS when jumped OK and went back to get in. Finished off fairly. This is easier. Did win t/d last prep on H10 by big space when on best ground.

15. Mansa Musa ($13)- Didn’t handle track LS but has won S7 before. Had a great prep last time in and obviously has ability. Likely improve.

Other runners:

2.Got The Goss ($20)- Good from the back first-up where clocked QL800,600,400 and 200m splits of day. Won 3 from 8 second up and 1/1 track. Wins from 1000 to 1300. 486 DlW and needs luck getting back. Mixed form wet.

3.Za Zi Ba ($17)- Pretty disappointing first-up. Better than that but needs to lift all th same.

5.Phuket- Scratched.

6.Egyptian Bullet ($11)- Won 3 from 5 first-up but they were narrow margins first three preps. Pushed along recent trial when second to Miss Street who has won by 3 1/4L first-up since. Mixed soft form.

7.Oriental Runner ($21)- 1400-1100 here. Consistent on pacer but 384 days since last win now/

8.Stephan ($9.50)- Finished strongly all 3 runs this prep but slow out all 3 and that is what is holding him back. Beaten Mdn on heavy and 2nd S6 in B61. Will be strong late again.

9.Alart ($15)- Hard to knock- Beaten .6L by Renewal LS in race where 7 subs st 0 placings. Still Saturday city grade. Wet OK.

10.Ever So Natural- Scratched.

11.Bella Vella- Scratched.

13.Voila ($10)- No official trials coming in. Beaten .5L G3 last prep Flemington then held in Qld. Wide gate. Won t/d H10 and Good track last prep,

16.Art Of Excellence ($51)- Prefer over further when he can run them along and control race.

18.Little Red Shoes ($51)- Just fair two runs back although she will find this easier than LS. Still better form on dry.


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