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Canterbury Previews

 Feb 5 2019

Weather: A few showers about but should be a good track.

Wind: Prediction of gentle SSE. Potential to be a small tail wind down back straight and head wind home straight. Slight advantage leaders again.

Meetings with rail out 6m recently at Canterbury:

11/01/2017 - Cant - 6m+ - G4 - Fair but on pace helped                                               

9/09/2017 - Cant - 6m - G4 - On speed favours- fence OK but got wider later but fence still OK                                                              

5/01/2017 - Cant - 6m - G4 - On speed favours-Hard to make ground as a whole but not impossible.                                                  

2/01/2018 - Cant - 6m - G4 off but S - Fence and then on pace a big advantage                                               

21/02/2018 - Cant - 6m - S7-6 - Fair track                                                            

5/06/2018 - Cant - 6m - H8 - On pace adv. Tough to make ground                                                       

25/07/2018 - Cant - 6m - Fence and on pace massive bias                                                

29/08/2018 - Cant - 6m - G3 - Pretty fair track this. Maybe hard fence not the best place to be.                                               

9/01/2019 - Cant - 6m - S7 - Quite few winners pace.fence but good runs out wide too. Seemed to be able to sit 3WNC. On pace helped overall.                                     

Last meeting at Canterbury rail out 3m- 23/01/2019 G3 “On pace no real lanes but on pace a medium adv”

Overall assessment of Friday night’s track: Recent history suggests likelihood of on pace bias here, particularly early. Fence maybe advantage too.

Race 1 1550M Mdn

Overview: Tricky race with most of these stepping up in trip or lightly raced. Home Scene should find the front. I don’t think he is the best horse but James McDonald goes aboard and the rail out 6m usually favours those on pace early so he goes on top because of that. If they can run in, the $7 a place about Also Cool looks juicy. I know she comes out of a race at Orange but it was actually run in solid time and the form has been OK out of it. It’s just hard to suggest a bet on her considering history says on pace! Many other hopes.

Leaning to Home Scene just because of the map but tough race. Also Cool looks overs but track pattern the key query.

Selections: 7-2-6-1

7-Home Scene ($4.80)- McDonald on. Leader big plus rail out 6m. Had chance last 2 starts. Soft lead latest and could only manage third. Does he have class to hold on? Map/ jock gives him hope. 7L slower Cl1 same day but diff race shape LS.

2.Tactical Formation ($5.40)- Best of closers 1400m Mdn first-up. Race 2L slower other 1400m MDN but diff race shape. Maps awkwardly the knock. Placed 6 of 8. Just missed mile last prep.

6.Also Cool ($16)-2L quicker Cl2 on day and it was last 600m. Winner beaten 4L Highway since. Mum won to 2000m. Just gets back rail out 6m?

1.Brilliant Mind ($7.60)- Bred to stay so mile should suit but goes 1200-1600m. Form around Gem Song and The Autumn Sun first prep. Sits on speed which should be an advantage. Just 2nd up mile?

Other runners:

3.King Of Seas ($7)- Beaten by Rexx/Tact Form first up. Slow out and held ground- Avdulla on. By Melb Cup placegetter so extra trip should suit.

5.Shaman ($26)-Blink 1st time- Beaten 3L by Home Scene (tempo against her) last start and meets horse 2kg worse off. Would need to improve on three runs to date,

8-Elusive Nature ($8.30)- comes out of very good maiden which was run 2L quicker B70 on day (last 600m difference too) and race has produced two winners and two seconds from 6 subs starters since. Query is 31 days between runs 1400-1550m. Claim for Dolan helps.Drifts back.

9-In A While ($10)-Overall time actually slightly quicker than Tact Form, Rexx and King OF Seas same track and dist fresh but that was because her race run quicker early and 2L quicker overall. Had chance last two. Mile query? Narrowly beaten by Home Scene first up.

10.Shanaya ($116)- Blink 1st time0 Sectionals/ ov time avg to date- needs to improve.

11-Senatorial ($239) (em)- Hard to have.

Race 2- B70 1100m

Overview: Koonunga was a good winner first-up off a long break and providing she doesn’t fall victim to the second-up syndrome she looks the horse to beat. The time was good too fresh. Sophiella has been costly and I’m not sure the drop back to 1100m is ideal but she is always capable in a race like this. Le Dejeuner comes out of a strong race fresh but she seems to be a better fresh horse. I thought Not A Sound was over the odds here. She was slow to recover last start and her form prior was good. She can rattle off a good sectional but she might be run off her feet at 1100m. All 3 of her wins have come at 1300m.

Koonunga on top here but at her right price. Survey’s Legacy and Not A Sound both look underrated by the market.

Selections: 1-8-2-6

1.Koonunga ($2.70)- Trialled well- FUP more than a year won Gosf 1000-6L quicker 1000m mdn and all l600. 4th/ 5th won out of race. Form around Pecans/ Vinnie Power last prep- Just whether 2nd up syndrome off long break. Maps well on speed.

8.Survey's Legacy ($12)- Won fup Tuncurry race 3L Q 1000m mdn. Should be aggressive gate two. Beat Lobban Hood there who had been struggling. Form last prep just fair?

2.Sophiella ($4.50)- Winkers 1st time-Just missed bob of heads 4 back, WNC thee back and went too hard in front LS. 1250 back to 1100m. GO forward or sit back? Started fav 4 of past 5 starts and been beaten. Costly but something there.

6.Not A Sound ($18)- Slow to recover LS and posted QL400 and 200m splits day when winning at Orange prior. Query is 1300 back to 1100? All 3 wins at 1300m.

Other runners:

3.Lettre D'Amour ($17)-resuming no trials- Yet to show up frwsh. Wins at 1300m and 1400m. May want further. Only 3rd racing prep tho so upside.

4.Second Island ($10)- Solid trial- Has nice turn of foot on day. 2 fresh runs runner up good eye catching efforts. 3 wins at 1000m so 1100m a query? Gets back rail out 6m. Can you make ground?

5.Le Dejeuner ($10)- Gave her a chance at odds fresh because fresh record so good and she ran well. 2nd up record not as good but good rating race fresh and second has won.

7.Our Revenue ($40)- haad the 62kg last start and drops 8kg here. Just probably gets back to last and needs too much to go right.

Race 3: B70 1550m

Overview: Judge Judi looks the horse to beat here but he is probably at his right price all the same because he did get a soft lead last start and had all the favours and I doubt he leads here. He beat a subsequent winner (Zavance) last start though. The one that looks overs to me is Cascata Rossa. He should have won two back and then I don’t think he was at home on the soft track last start. I know his wins have been at 1400m but he won at 1800m by a big space last year before being disqualified. Tim Clark goes on here. Carluca looks ready third-up, while Cormac will be running on late. Navigator will lead with the blinkers on but seems too short all the same.

Can back both Cascata Rossa and Judge Judi here or take them in a quinella. They look the two with Carluca my main concern outside those two.

Selections: 4-5-3-6

4-Cascata Rossa ($6)- Shd won two back and then not sure at home on soft ground latest. 2 wins at 1400m but won 1800m big space GC Apr 2017 before later being DQ due to pos swab to altrenogest (trainer fined $5000). Clark on and dry ground.

5.Judge Judi ($2.40)-Soft lead 2nd up but won well Gof. 2nd horse won since. Progressive horse and deserving favourite.

3.Carluca ($8)- Comes through good rating race. ½ run short second up. Set good speed, kicked. Top 2 5 of 15 at this dist. Avdulla on. Meets Cormac 2.5kg worse off.

6.Navigator-($8)- Blinkers 1st time-Stuck on OK second up but had chance. Do blinkers switch him on or backfire. Beaten by Judge Judi first-up. Rail out 6m LEADER.

Other runners:

1.Cormac ($11)- Caught the eye late fresh 1400m. Close 2nd to Tunero second up mile last prep. Just whether one more with the big weight?

2.Georgica ($72)-Didn’t threaten first up and needs longer.

7.Tenorino ($26)- OK LS but 547 DLW and others more upside.

8.Chalk ($20)- Nothing between him and Tenorino two back. Can bob up but 481DLW and had plenty of chances.

9.Gouldian ($80)- Wide and working LS but still won. 4th won Tamw since but figures just fair and quite the jump here.

Race 4- B72 1100m

Overview: Tonsor should be able to find the front here and he came a long way in his first preparation. He trialled up super and looks the horse to beat. Ever So Natural finds the weakest race he has contested for some time. He won’t get a better chance to return to the winner’s circle. Don’t Leave Me Out trialled well and then won first-up at Gosford where the second horse has won since. Newtown Is Coming isn’t hopeless here. His late splits have been quickest of the day at his past two starts.

Leaning to Tonsor but I would want $2.20+ to play. Include Newtown Is Coming in exotics + wider quaddies.

Selections: 3-1-4-7

3-Tonsor ($2.15)- Two good trials, latest in slick time. Should find the front here. Progressive and came a long way first prep, hard to beat with J Mac on.

1-Ever So Natural-  ($5.45) Had chance of late but weakest race he has come across in a while. Gets another chance.

4 Don't Leave Me Out ($5.50)- Trialled well then good winner fup Gosf.Second has won since. Figures OK.

7.Newtown Is Coming ($15)- Q L600m,400m, 200m splits of day last two starts. Won with 61.5kg two back defeating a subs winner. Down 6kg. Country form?

Other runners:

2-Flash Fibian ($24) Nice enough trial but first up almpost a year. Hasn’t down anything for a while. Wait and watch.

5              Vincero ($24)- Ran on OK last two.Gets back and hard horse to catch. 553 DLW.

6              Mr Tindall ($24)- Resumes no trials. 2nd to two time subs winner Prime Candidate first-up last prep off two trials. Any market support.

8              Whanau Force ($142)-Got nome OK fup Nowra this looks tougher.

Race 5-B70 1250m

Overview: I know the rail out 6m means it should be on pace but there is good pressure here and they might just over do it and bring Kawaikini and Crafty Tycoon into this. I love the booking of Tom Marquand for Kawaikini and Crafty Tycoon hasn’t had a lot go right from the back his last two. Vega will also be getting home, while those on speed are all chances in a tricky race.

Leaning Kawaikini over Crafty Tycoon but can they make ground? That’s the big key by this time of the night.

Selections: 3-4-8-2

3.Crafty Tycoon ($6)-Racing well. Had to go right back gatw two back and then slow out LS and held up for 100m around turn before finishing off. Pressure here should allow him to finish off.

4.Kawaikini ($5)- Better LS Cant when runner up to Quadriga. Got home well. Form around Redouble earlier prep. Marquand on big plus. Speed on too.

8.Vega ($7)- Going OK this prep. Just gives them a start. 2.5kg swing Alart narrow defeat LS. 6st distance 0 placings? But won twice 1600m so 1250 should be ok.

2.Alart ($8.50)- Won here two back when lead (advantage to be on speed that day) and held on. Outclassed since. Carries 57.5kg this time v 54.5kg when one weaker B70 two back.

Other runners:

1.Choice Larga ($10.50)- Ran super time last start as went very hard in front and kept going last start woth 60.5kg. More pressure here the knock and not sure he even leads. Form prior OK without raving about.

5.Kopite ($13.50)- WNC early and eased out of speed dual latest. Super on strong speed two back when caught by swooper late. Prefer when she can lead and doubt she can here. Clark on.

6.No Interest ($13.50)- Mixing form. Won t/d two back and then may have struggled 1350m latest. Probably finds fence here back in field, tricky spot at Canterbury. Needs the break.

7.Waltzing Willie ($94)- Resuming. No trials. Most wins 1500-1800 wait for further.

9.Bancroft ($11)- Surpr winner two back in race prod 3 winners inc 2nd and 3rd. Battle don soft going latest. Win two back was at $10 and form either side average?

10.Bright Future ($31)- 567 DLW. Just going dair in country//prov. Needs another win to boost confidence.

Race 6- B72 1250m

Overview: Hard to tip against Safado but I can’t take the $1.65 either. He looks a progressive horse and ran good time first-up. The two queries are he beat nothing first-up and he has a tendency to be slow out and is likely to be on the fence in the run either third or fifth and you need luck from there at Canterbury. If he gets luck, he should be hard to hold out. Charlayne was much better last start and a repeat sees her as the main danger. Above And Beyond finds the front and looks the only other winning chance.

Safado on top but I can’t take $1.65 considering the map and the fact he will need the breaks as he will most likely be slow out and at best be third the fence which at Canterbury is not a great spot as they don’t fan in the straight like other tracks usually.



2.Safado ($1.90)-Good win fresh. At least 6L quicker 2 x 1100 Mdns on day. Saved from Sat for this.Form out of race ordinary but he was in another league. Only loss to subs stakes winner Resin. Only danger looks gate one as he can be slow out and could strike trouble.

3.Charlayne ($4.50)- Much better in a strong race last start when running on well to fgrab third. Back out to 1250m. Has ability but been hard to catch. McEvoy rides.

5.Above And Beyond ($10)- Leader in race. Stuck on soft run on speed last start. Could run cheeky race from front.

10.Eugene's Pick ($20) Came a long way first racing prep win 2 of six and second to All Too Soon. 1250m too sharp? Resuming no trials?

Other runners:

4.Wander ($36) Just going ok. Win three back on fast lane.

6.Al Mah Haha ($45)- Maps awkwardly here. Cheq path home first-up in race that was a blanket finish. Map concerns me

7.Spencer ($60)- Ran on OK two runs back. Looks as if he wants further?

9.Ballistica ($36)- Won in slow time two back (was three wide) and then had chance latest. Think this has more depth.

11.My Kylin ($901)- Prefer others.

Race 7- B70 1900m

Overview: Hard to go past Via Veneto and she probably looks the best of the night. She has been $2.80-$2.35 already though and that’s about her right price. Zip A Dee Doo Dah gets the blinkers on for the first time and he pulled up lame last start. His form prior was good enough o win this. California Firebird is on the up but he has to see out the 1900m and this is another level. Zeppelin next best.

Via Veneto hard to beat and the best of the night providing they can run on (we will have a fair idea but this time of the night).

Selections: 9-3-6-4

9.Via Veneto ($2.15)- Should have finished closer Nahuel last start and run prior was always going to be too short at 1550m. Racing well. Speed on suits. HTB.

3.Zip A Dee Doo Dah ($7.60)- Blinkers 1st time- Pulled up 1/5 lame LS two runs prior have him right in finish. McEvoy off but gets claim.

6.Zeppelin ($9)-Consistent this time in. First crack 1900m. Will he run it out?

4.California Firebird ($13)- Overcame slow tempo to score LS KG. Didn’t beat much but progressing 4th up. Beaten 11L only run 1900 but early in career. Mum won over 2000m.

Other runners:

2.Kilmaccuragh ($15)- Leaders went too hard ans set it up for swoopers LS but still beaten fair way. OK prior.

7.Celtic Love ($38)- Run better than it looked two back but disap last start. Prefer over 1500-1600,

8.Base Camp ($58)- Placed t/d back in May last year but recent form average.

10. Joe's Joy ($47)- Won this T/D may but recent form avg. Prefers wet.

11. Sazavee($63)- Struggled straight out of mdn grade in good race latest. First crack 1900,/

12. Inherit ($23)- Just fair last two. First crack 1900m.

Bradley Davidson - Sky Racing

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