The first bet I ever remember having, was on Baghdad Note in the 1970 Melbourne Cup when my father placed my entire weeks’ pocket money of 50c on the ghostly grey, which in turn stormed to victory at the lucrative odds of 25/1.
I distinctly remember receiving $10 (my father obviously took a hefty commission for placing my bet) and heading straight down to Wilkinson’s Corner Shop at Bridge Road, Hornsby to buy the biggest bag of mixed lollies you could imagine.
Baghdad Note therefore set in train my punting philosophy that is still in place to this day…I would rather try and find a value-priced winner than stake my hard earned on a short-priced favourite.
The G1 Peter Mosman Classic is set to jump at 10pm (AEST). Check the full TAB.com.au market here.
There’s plenty of ‘smarties’ that will tell you that a $1.25 winner is better than a $10 loser and they’re spot on…but just like any habit, its hard to shake looking for something at big odds when you’re doing your proverbial and trying to find a winner.
Which leads me to my current conundrum.
One side of my brain tells me that I simply have to tip the superstar sprinter Fernando Bale to win this weeks’ Group 1 Peter Mosman Classic at Wentworth Park while the other side (not sure which is which) tells me to look for value and tip the highly talented kennelmate, Dyna Double One.
There’s no disputing the fact that Fernando Bale deserves to be favourite after winning sixteen of his past seventeen starts including three Group 1 events (the National Derby and Golden Easter Egg at Wentworth Park and the Harrison-Dawson at Sandown Park) but my love of ‘value’ means I simply can’t back him at the $1.25 TAB.com.au currently have on offer.
I have waxed lyrically to all and sundry about his prowess from the starting boxes and I still maintain he is the most reliable beginner I have seen in the past 40 odd years from watching greyhound racing – add to that his affinity to Wentworth Park (where he has won 7 of 8 starts); and his record in feature events (multiple Group 1 victories); and most people would say you’d be a mug to tip against him.
Now…that other side of my brain is telling me, ”go for something at odds to beat him; look for something at a better price,” which is where Dyna Double One comes into the equation.
He certainly doesn’t have the box manners of Fernando Bale (mind you, not many greyhounds in Australia do) and at times, that has brought him undone when contesting Group 1 races, but there’s no doubting he is blessed with the ability to run blistering times as is evidenced by his victories at The Meadows where he holds the record for the third and fourth fastest times ever recorded at that track.
I do believe that Wentworth Park is the track that Dyna Double One begins best at and if Fernando Bale does have an ‘off-night’ this Saturday night, maybe, just maybe, Dyna Double One will score his first victory at the elite level.
I swore after I tipped against Fernando Bale in the Golden Easter Egg final that I’d learnt my lesson; that he was a freak who can lead any field to the first turn; and that I wouldn’t be tipping against him in the future until he was beaten; and that’s why I’ve got him on top again this week.
So the question you may ask is, “Will I back him?”
The answer to that is, “No.”
I’ll be having something on Dyna Double One at the $5.50 because of my penchant for value, which I might add has been much to the detriment of my pocket in the past.
My tips in the Peter Mosman Classic are Fernando Bale, from Dyna Double One, No Donuts and Elfen Bale.
I’ll be trackside at Wentworth Park from 7pm bringing viewers all the action on Sky Racing1 (Ch519) for what promises to be a sensational Group 1 race.
Good luck and good punting.
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