Race Preview - 2019 Earl Of Sefton Stakes

 Apr 18 2019

A bit of joy for the Mail Model on day one - which you can read here - followed by a lay day yesterday with the Craven itself a race to gather information rather than use it. 

There's plenty to work with in the feature on day three, however, with the Earl Of Sefton a deep contest with plenty of betting angles. So lets crank the model into gear. 

Assessed Prices: First Contact $4.00; Elarqam $5.50; First Nation $7.00; Zabeel Prince $9.00. 

We've only listed around 70% worth of chances there, so the race runs a bit deeper than the top four - Vintager, Mustashry and Forest Ranger others given meaningful chances - but the biggest differences against the early market are in those leading hopes with the Charlie Appleby-trained pair, First Contact and First Nation, worth backing according to the Mail Model. 

The model likes Charlie Appleby and he really likes Charlie when he links up with stable jocks William Buick and James Doyle. For good reason too, they produce a ton of winners. The other thing the model likes is racehorses that are racing, and recent runs in Dubai from the Appleby duo are considered a good thing - particularly for the fact that they were/are racing well. 

Elarqam on the other hand, hasn't been racing. 245 days off the scene is a cause for concern, but he has a plenty promising profile and is given a good chance, just not as good as the early betting gives him, and so it's a Blue-Jacket brace for us tonight. 



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