Race Preview : 2019 John Porter Stakes

 Apr 12 2019

We had a bit of success (we'll call it a draw) with the first of articles covering key races through the UK flat Season though the eyes of the Racing and Sports Priceline - which you can read here

The model outpredicted the early betting with Chelmsford winner Bye Bye Birdie but the late betting went very much his way and very much against our most likely winner in Dark Vision which saw Bye Bye Birdie SP inside our assessed price. So a draw. Of sorts... 

Now we turn our attention to Newbury on Saturday with the Greenham meeting very much a kick off point for the season ahead. With the entire field off a break in the Greenham it looks a bit of a trap. We could say the same about the first on the card, the John Porter Stakes, but with horses that we have plenty of info on the Priceline can still make meaningful predictions.  

Early betting on the Porter finds the first couple in the same order with Defoe a clear market leader ahead of Young Rascal. There is no value in either price according to the Racing and Sports model, however.  

Where there is a bit of juice is the third elect (in the eyes of this model) Mootasadir. The Priceline clearly likes that he is the one horse in the race with a recent run to lean on and that potential fitness edge makes him a good winning hope. A good winning profile and a strong last-start rating don't hurt either. 

He's available a good couple of rolls of the board above $7.00 and we may get better yet as the betting gets more competitive closer to the jump. 

 



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