Race Preview - Woodford Reserve Conditions Stakes

 Apr 11 2019

The flat season is underway in the UK with the Greenham coming up on Saturday and the Craven Meeting at Newmarket just a week away. Racing and Sports will run it's Priceline over featured events throughout the flat season, taking a series of key variables and crunching the numbers to hopefully outpredict the marketplace over the coming months. 

The Woodford Reserve Conditions Stakes is hardly one of the high points of the season but it is a valuable prize and a competitive heat this year with Aidan O'Brien making a first trip to the course with a two-pronged attacked headed by U S S Michigan who is reportedly on trial for the Kentucky Derby. 

Assessed Prices:  Dark Vision $3.90; Fanaar $5.50; Bye Bye Hong Kong $6.00; U S S Michigan $6.50.

U S S Michigan comes up favourite in the early betting but too short according to Racing and Sports' model with three marked more likely than the current favourite. 

They are headed by last season's Vintage Stakes winner Dark Vision who was fairly explosive that day before failing to fire at Doncaster before a break. 

That Vintage win stands out as the best form on offer here and he might be a little bit undersold. U S S Michigan runs for a powerful combo of O'brien and Ryan Moore but he still has plenty to make up off a Dundalk win where he was well ridden and beat a fairly limited one - albiet in good style. 

Fanaar looks about the right price based on this assessment. Like U S S Michigan he has the advantage of a recent run and it was a good one, quickening well to win a slowly run listed race at Lingfield. 

Bye Bye Hong Kong is the other principal hope according to the model with his final run last season rating well when only narrowly beaten in a well-run Somerville. It's unlikely that he will have to improve a great deal on that to be in the finish and with the great SDS in the saddle he looks overpriced in current markets. Well worth an each way ticket.

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