Commonwealth Cup 1207m
Couple of very sharp last start winners engaged here. Quiet Reflection locked in favouritism for this when winning at Haydock last time. Good record before that having won four from five but went to another level posting what were clearly the best figures on a card that included smart older sprinters in a competitive Group 3. Very close to a genuine Group 1 level performance. No issues soft and she looked to do that within herself. Dare say if she is able to step up on it then the rest are going to be in trouble.
Log Out Island looks a couple of turns too big around the $9.00 mark though. Had looked to have shown all he had to offer at a Timeform rating of 113 before a change of tactics last time. Went for home straight from the gates and found plenty to run to a mark of 120. Could well have been a perfect storm and not to be repeated but enough juice in that price to find out.
Washington DC is a solid enough performer who is likely to run well but lacks the X-factor of Quiet Reflection or Log Out Island (the Log Out Island we saw last time anyway). Donjuan Trumphant chased home Quiet Reflection. Solid effort but hard to see how he turns the tables without her bombing out.
Assessed Odds: Quiet Reflection; $2.8. Log Out Island; $4.50. Donjuan Triumphant; $10.00. Washington DC; $12.00.
Coronation Stakes 1609m
Again we look to have a very solid favourite, this time with Jet Setting. Claimed the scalp of a star in Minding in the Irish 1000 at the Curragh. They were quick to make excuses for Minding but the gap back to third suggested she was pretty close to her best (I think just off her peak) and that Jet Setting just ran right out of her skin. Soft track seems to be the key and she gets that. Neutral at the current price but she ticks plenty of boxes - form, time, conditions.
Ground turning soft seems to have turned Nemoralia soft in the market. Smart last season but looked back in terrific order when romping up at York. Beat nothing there but really like what we don't know about her as opposed to what we do. Generally speaking there is more money to be made in the unknown than the known.
Nathra was good in France and stacks up on that rating. She's be no match at all for Minding in two meetings but has caught her on two outstanding days. Regardless it points to her needing to lift to trouble Jet Setting.
Qemah finished alongside Nathra in the French Guineas and was $4.50 v Nathra $9.00. Has more upside with her profile as well - have to mark her the shorter of that pair. Arrive on both her and Nemoralia at shorter prices than the current market.
Besharah and Alice Springs were just in behind the pair and have fringe hopes on that form but both were well performed two-year-olds and look to be struggling to get back to that level as opposed to building on those French Guineas runs.
Assessed Odds: Jet Setting; $3.20. Nemoralia; $5.50. Qemah; $5.50. Nathra; $10.00. Besharah; $15.00.
G3 - Lowland S
Listed - Ibhayi Stakes
G3 - Northern Trotting Breeders Stakes
G1 - Pascoes The Jewellers Northern Oaks
G3 - The Founders Cup (1700)