Prince Of Wales's Stakes 2011m
Hardly any work required to put these into order. Japanese star A Shin Hikari is an obvious favourite after storming up - Timeform 133 - at Chantilly last time and that was hardly a fluke. Produced a series of top class speed figures in Japan and has taken that show on the road - sustained speed at the International Meeting in Hong Kong saw him post figures that left every other race in the shade on a strong card that included star miler Maurice winning the mile.
Handled soft ground for the first time in France and looked more than comfortable racing in Europe. Should win and comes up $1.50 on Racing And Sports' numbers which looks spot on.
Western Hymn and My Dream Boat are solid enough and Tryster has some x-factor but none have posted a rating in A Shin Hikari's ballpark.
The Grey Gatsby was good in this last year and has rolled a top shelf one before - Australia in the 2014 Irish Champion - but first up off 277 days on ground probably softer than ideal he's fairly unlikely.
Found is hard fit and racing well and has also rolled top class horse before - Golden Horn in the 2015 Breeders Cup Turf - and she's the obvious key danger. No match for Postponed last time but he was posting a world class rating from a positive spot in running there so no shock that she couldn't lay a glove on him from back in the field.
If he does get left alone and have a wander when he hits the rising ground (a la So You Think in 2011) she's probably the one with the best chance of picking him off but the early market looks pretty right - in fact, if anything there might be a little juice in the best prices around about the fave.
Assessed Odds: A Shin Hikari; $1.50. Found; $6.50. The Grey Gatsby; $13.00.
Duke Of Cambridge Stakes 1609m
Usherette and Always Smile are 9 from 11 between them and come off the best last start ratings. Usherette is quickly improving for Fabre. Too sharp for a pair of Group 1 winners in a slowly run race at Newmarket last time and likely to improve again. All factored in she's marked $3.50 which isn't available at the time of writing.
Win of Always Smile at York looks just as good, though. Could make a case that the runner up Convey was unlucky there but she was first up off the best part of a year on the sidelines and gave him weight. Enough substance to her numbers to think that she could be very good and her current price (around $10.00) looks to undersell the chances of that - have her right on par with Usherette.
Lucida started shorter than Devonshire at the Curragh but only just and was well held. Going to be fitter and would be likely to turn the tables if she found her best but record could point to her being much better on faster going. Too high-rating runs last season were on firm tracks.
Jazzi Top should also improve towards her best form after being well below it first time out but think she will need every yard of her best to beat the top two.
Miss Temple City is a Group 1 winner in the US. Gets Moore but Timeform rating and the early market suggest she's just a fringe hope.
Assessed Odds: Usherette; $3.50. Always Smile; $3.50. Lucida $12.00; Jazzi Top; $12.00. Devonshire; $12.00.
Jersey Stakes 1408m
Competitive as always and loaded with improvers. Castle Harbour comes off a hot handicap at York that has produced plenty of winners and he ran smart enough figures to think that he holds a good hope in a race like this. Have him up there but couldn't have him shorter than Gifted Master won five in a row, running an improved rating each time, before getting beaten for speed by a filly that will beat plenty for speed this season. Think that is fairly hot form and the extra furlong might be just what he is looking for now. Good option to switch up and come here as opposed to the Commonwealth Cup.
Thikriyaat is unbeaten in three. Market has him narrowly ahead of Ibn Malik for the same connections - presumably a lead being taken from stable jock's decision to ride Thikriyaat and a line being drawn through Scrutineer who both have beaten - but Ibn Malik has posted stronger figures than Thikriyaat. Had more of a chance to show us how good he is but he did post a good number first up and have to mark him the more likely of the pair on what we know.
Ribchester ran well ahead of market expectation in the Guineas and couldn't overlook him entirely off that. Each way chance in a race where the each way chances are legitimate each way chances; Haalick, Forge etc.
Assessed Odds: Gifted Master; $5.00. Castle Harbour; $6.00. Ibn Malik; $8.00. Thikriyaat; $10.00. Ribchester; $10.00. Forge; $16.00. Haalik; $16.00.
G3 - Lowland S
Listed - Ibhayi Stakes
G3 - Northern Trotting Breeders Stakes
G1 - Pascoes The Jewellers Northern Oaks
G3 - The Founders Cup (1700)